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Weather Mike

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Everything posted by Weather Mike

  1. maybe they will adjust more east on the 11pm update
  2. Euro had it strengthening later vs GFS
  3. not sure how that can be that west when Euro and UKMET are east and the GFS shifted east just now towards Tally so not sure I am buying too much into that based on the 12Z Euro and UKMET
  4. Yea my home in Sunset Park will have fish swimming down the street
  5. 12Z JMA looks very similar to 12Z Euro
  6. Euro has been consistent over past several runs. Not taking the bait to go west like the GFS
  7. Jim Cantore in Clearwater today and never a good sign to see Jim in your neighborhood
  8. Euro, ICON and UKMET has been steadfast against the GFS and all the others that head it up the panhandle. Will be interesting to see what unfolds.
  9. Curious if most of the models that take it into the panhandle are basing the low further south? Or maybe there is more to it then that ? I don’t want it in Tampa trust me but I’m not closing the door on the possibility these models swing the other way over the next day or two to correct themselves once a low has been established and that trough has been better sampled.
  10. Hopefully tomorrow we can finally establish a low and the models and come to a better agreement. I am sure like you said they are handling the lows differently and possibly the interaction with that trough.
  11. For the sake of you and I I just hope it does not turn out to be a landfall between the GFS and Euro run as we will not be in a good position with some bad storm surge.
  12. yes its more west then 12z. I was not making a refence as it was just off the coast. But more so its position being west of Tampa. Looks like a Tallahassee special
  13. starting to weaken slightly as it heads due north just west of Tampa
  14. What caused Charlie to change paths and head in earlier ? Is the environment around for a similar possibility with this TD as it head up the west coast of FL as a Hurricane ?
  15. Like to see those extra weather balloons looking at those upper level winds regarding that trough
  16. I assume the UKMET and GFS are representing different interactions with the trough vs the Euro and ICON for example ?
  17. Thats a lot of surge coming into Fort Myers and Port Charlotte.
  18. Yes that's terrible for Tampa. Tampa to Naples is my landing zone probability. Hoping for a change because that 06z GFS is terrible for me and others around the greater tampa bay area.
  19. Change from yesterday as now most major models are targeting Florida from the big bend to the Keys. See if this continues tomorrow and beyond.
  20. Possible but Euro still says no I am coming on shore just north of Tampa. Will have to see what unfolds
  21. So far looking like New Orleans far west to as far east and south as Port Charlotte area. Still long way away. Will it miss that trough or not ?
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