Tezeta

57 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Someone I think might be a Juggalo was talking about taking his kids to chase in New Orleans and see a Cat 5.  Might be in the other thread  Grape Faygo or some such name.  That he has bred already is disappointing.

Blueberry faygo. It’s a hippity hop song for the youth 

5 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Hilly terrain, up to about 1000 ft, should halt intensification somewhat for at least a few hours. But hard to believe it will have much of an impact long term

That’s the same terrain that disrupted gustav. Maybe it’ll put in some work here. 

Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I was replying to someone saying Cat 1.  It has time to Harvey, I don;t think it gets Cat 5.  I could be wrong.

Neither do I, but this isn’t the storm to take that bet on. I’m chillin just waiting to see what it looks like tomorrow morning before being bolder. 

1 minute ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

I won't have time to go full Cat 5, or even Cat 4 (maybe borderline Cat 3/4, tops) passing over high SSTs/OHC and light shear, Cat 1 seems low.  Even w/ less than 2 full days over the Gulf.

How can you make such a definitive statement? We have seen that RI can bring a storm to cat 5 within 2 days. It’s still uncommon but we are living with AGW and it happens occasionally now. 

11 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

This thread will probably be more informative than the NE forum Henri thread for whatever that is worth

That was a decent thread tbh. This thread may falter a bit because the seshing is going on elsewhere on the board and in other places. 

They’re going to be late, then the sensors will malfunction, then they’ll turn around early

4 minutes ago, csnavywx said:

The list of potential negatives for this thing is pretty short. With virtually all lower-res global guidance and ensembles calling this, it's starting to look like one of those events I like to call "synoptically evident".

 

Gotta hope for some sloppy early-stage development or (destructive) land interaction. I don't think outflow shear in the gulf from an Epac storm alone is going to cut it in this case.

Yeah, you have to root for it to be big and loose. That’s the most likely failure mode. 

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Maybe some of the Baja moisture can get entrained into my region

19 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

I certainly pray this does not track over portions that Laura did. My company lost an employee and has spent millions of dollars rebuilding our facilities following that event last year. To be honest I think we may just have to close it down if it were to take on another strike

That sucks. What does your company do? Can they rebuild somewhere else?

3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Heh, 99L does not appear to be wasting any time getting organized today. Note the sharpening of the wave axis and evident mid level circulation developing. If these trends continue, location of low level vortex / TCG is going to be sooner ahead of schedule that even modeled initiation. This would give credence to more northerly clusters of track ensembles, but of course still all unknowns until we have a CoC to track and better model initializations.

Looks excellent. These storms are always so much better than CV long trackers. 

33 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:

Bret struck the least populated county, IIRC, (Kenedy with one 'n' IIRC) on the Atlantic or Gulf Coasts.  I did hear the massive King Ranch lost a lot of cattle, from wind, not surge.

Yeah that’s why they had to partner up with Ford to make money off city people who want a rugged image. I think they are doing better now. 

7 minutes ago, wxmx said:

968mb extrapolated, 85 kts SFMR. It will probably be upgraded to cat 2

I kinda figured. A pig with lots of nasty convection is better than something that cleared a ragged eye just because. Josh is going to take a nice beating. 

Hopefully the extreme damage can be limited to the hamptons

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

True 

I usually pay for the models especially during the winter .

Never donated, never subbed, stolen laptop, neighbors wifi. 

anyways, henri is looking like a recurve. Has any good east coast storm ever started where it did? 

Just now, buckeyefan1 said:

Haters gonna hate      

He’s gone from TWC to roku tv. It’s quite the drop off. Maybe he should have stayed posting here instead of abandoning us. 

58 minutes ago, dizzy9479 said:

He is working the storm for WeatherNation - his Twitter notes that was why he's chasing, haha

Weathernation is so low class. Surprised he’d hurt his brand like that. TWC must have run the numbers on his fan base and decided he wasn’t worth it, hence going to work for the hydrox cookie of weather. 

1 minute ago, Prospero said:

You know a lot for a hater! LOL

Jerry said the Grateful Dead was like licorice. "Some people hate licorice, but people who like licorice, really like licorice."

I have tickets to Dead and Company this October, can't wait!

Now John Mayer is a real musician. Props to him. 

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

This site was not created by nor for Red tags.  They are as contributory as anyone else and are equally qualified for rebuke. 

I think they should get the default benefit of the doubt because they have a degree in it, unlike the people who just dally with it. 

The dead sucked. Jerry was a heroin addict, Bobby can’t sing, Phil is a shill for the liver industrial complex, everyone hated Donna, pigpen was selfish and destructive, etc etc. 

54 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Dear newbies,

STOP posting nonsense. Read more and post less before you find yourself on the outside looking in. This will be the last warning you will get.

 

 

For the rest of you.....please carry on  

Part of what keeps everything fun is the dumbasses. Mods need to stop strangling the tropical threads that don’t have many posts anyways. 

57 minutes ago, Muhammad2922 said:

Growing of a significant hurricane risk for upper gulf coast anywhere from Al / Fl panhandle . Most global models show significant pressure falls. 

 Australian model

 

Weather.us - Google Chrome (gyazo.com)  Skorean model ( 10km resolution very good)  

Cmc was posted before.  Building anticyclone / high rh humidity and extremely warm gulf favor a sig hurricane to form.  2 ull will enhance outflow channels in models as welll. 

My rule of thumb when the Korean and the Aussie global agree is to start panic buying. 

Please implement badges at ampol

Looks pretty insane now

Just now, bowtie` said:

And if a person does not have a phone/IPad?

Join the 21st century or perish