George001

I’m glad I held off on taking em down, the high end of my forecast is going to bust but it looks like the low end is still in play (widespread foot with 16 jackpots) based on the obs of the low being both stronger and farther west than expected. It appears that the models underestimated the convection down south, the low is tapping into even more gulf moisture than expected and as a result is bombing out more than expected, and is coming more north and west than expected. The stronger low throwing precip back farther west, which on top of the low itself being more north and west than expected is leading to precip getting into areas like WV that we’re not forecast to be getting anything at this hour. The models right now have the 2nd low scraping the cape, but when taking obs into account it is appearing more likely that the 2nd low is going to undergo bombogenesis and bring heavy snow as far west as the berkshires. I’m starting to think the mistake I made was losing confidence in my forecast just because of one bad set of runs. 

1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said:

From the reports I have seen, it looks like this system has been overproducing down south.

This gives me hope that we can have an outside shot at reaching the lower end of my forecast. Obs are arguably more valuable than model data at this point (both are useful though, it would still be foolish to outright ignore the models). A great example of this is the Superbowl sunday storm, the models had 2-4 inches over my area, and even with ratios only 5-6. However, the obs did not match the model data at all, the precip was more expansive and the low was stronger and more northwest than forecasted, which was a huge red flag that forecasts were too low. Some good signs when the models have the snow to the south are more precip than expected down south, the rain snow line being farther north than expected, and the mountains and interior areas overproducing while DC and the coastal mid atlantic gets screwed by a warm layer. One thing I learned from my time on the other mid Atlantic centered board is we are often rooting for the opposite things. DC weenies love strong El Niño’s like 2015-2016, where as my area loves strong la ninas like 2010-2011. DC weenies often wants a more de amplified and farther south low to avoid mixing where as eastern mass weenies want a more amplified solution that might rain there. The key is what does the storm do down south, if the DC posters on the other board are rejoicing, we are probably screwed and if the DC posters are screaming bust, we are likely in for a major storm.

That said there are exceptions such as Jan 1996, but the setup for this storm is nothing like that one, and looks to be a more typical situation where it’s DC and the coastal mid Atlantic getting it or us getting it.

34 minutes ago, NeonPeon said:

There isn't a model that agrees with your forecast.

If you use QPF and model snow maps no model ever agreed with my forecast. However on the gfs solution the upper levels and the dynamics indicate that that we would get more snow than those snow maps, likely the lower end of my forecasts. However the 16-20 wouldn’t verify anywhere so that part would bust. That said, it’s the gfs, and it’s the most amplified out of all the models. That said, the gfs is a garbage model and will likely be wrong. When looking at the models that are actually good, yeah my forecast is as cooked as Cam Newton’s arm. On the european especially there is absolutely nothing that supports even half of my forecast. The dynamics that were previously modeled to enhance precip as well as ratios over New England are more offshore now, so there is nothing to bring us even the lower end of my forecast. I was confident that we would get 12-15 and locally 16-20, and I am probably going to be wrong. I’m still going to give it until the overnight runs to take em down though, just in case if the models jump back and undo all the south and dry trends tonight. It looks like the La Niña is going to help give us at least some snow, but not as much as I thought it would. 
 

hopefully the La Niña can help us for the Miller b threat on the 23rd like I thought it would for this one. When I see a La Niña, I don’t give up on winter until April unless the polar vortex is over the North Pole. 
 

It looks like my forecast has the gfs on its side but not the euro Canadian and navy. Not a good sign when the model that is agreeing with your forecast is the worst model there is. Probably going to take em down tonight.

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It happens to the best...but swinging for the grand slam with nobody on is a futile attempt:

I’m still not convinced that we simply aren’t getting unlucky in a loaded pattern, it’s not often you have both a polar vortex in central Canada and a strong La Niña creating a huge thermal gradient and get a bunch of weak storms that slide harmlessly out to sea. I doubt we are getting out of this without at least 1-2 blizzards before spring. The data suggested 12-15 with isolated 15-20 yesterday, but things change. Models are especially bad in La Niñas for some reason, idk why that is but they seem to do better in warmer enso states. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

May need to scale back to 12-16".

Yeah looks like I’m gonna bust at this point. Objectively looking at the data right now, it’s a lot worse than it looked yesterday. I’m going to wait until the midnight runs but if they don’t improve I’m going to take em down. Right now it looks like the best dynamics are going to stay to the south despite the strong La Niña and se ridge in place, though it’s still close. This looked like a good chance at a major storm, but it appears that the mechanism to bring the precip into New England isn’t there. I was thinking about why my forecast will bust and It appears that the polar vortex is pressing in too much, shearing apart the storm and preventing it from coming up the coast. I thought the SE ridge would be able to overcome that and the temp gradient caused by the se ridge and polar vortex would create a boundary for the low to develop and bomb out. 

Yikes euro is dry. Oh well, can’t win em all, onto the Miller b for the 23rd! 

I’m not as confident as I was 12 hours ago but there is still the possibility that these are just off runs. I’m still going to stick to my guns because we haven’t lost the euro yet and I haven’t seen any huge red flags indicating this south trend isn’t BS in regards to the atmospheric drivers in place. However, I would be lying if I said that this storm isn’t making me question everything I thought I knew about meteorology and forecasting.

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Back to the storm discussion..  I find there are more red flags than green ones  I think QPF output has been too generous.  Mechanics are just not there for widespread 6-8"+

They were yesterday’s runs but those jet dynamics seem to have evaporated into thin air on the newer runs. My interpretation of the atmospheric drivers must have been way off, with other storms I was able to identify where I went wrong but this one I just can’t figure it out. 

22 minutes ago, das said:

This has nothing to do with model performance. It’s not called modelology. If your forecast is based on model read outs rather than an understanding of cloud physics, fluid dynamics and numerical weather prediction comprehension, it’s not a forecast at all. 

I agree with this, models are a tool not meant to be taken as gospel. This is why I ignore those 10:1 ratio maps. I am trying to analyze the dynamics and temp profiles in the upper levels of the atmosphere to make my forecasts, which I wasn’t doing last month, and it did lead to some improvement but I clearly still have a long way to go before becoming a competent forecaster. However there is no excuse for a model to shift 50 miles east in one run this close to the event, especially with the atmospheric drivers in place.

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Because you are overly aggressive and out of touch. That’s not the model’s fault.

It is when it shifts 50 miles east in one run 2 days out. My forecast was based on a combination of the jet dynamics, upper level temps, and the storm track being a blend of the euro Canadian and navy. I also used the atmospheric drivers such as La Niña and polar vortex to assess what the fail risk is. With a strong southeast ridge in play and energy fairly far west, I believed the risk was storm would trend so far north we rain, which is why I didn’t buy into those all snow solutions Monday. Everything I looked at screamed overperformer, especially being a bit south with the pattern in place giving us room for some North ticks. It just doesn’t make sense that in a strong La Niña with a southeast ridge and energy amplifying to the west that we miss to the south. That’s why I was so aggressive with my forecast, like with other storms such as the feb 1-2 one I know why I busted (called for 2 ft in Bos, underestimated the well above avg ocean temps making it easy for mild air to come in and worsen the snow ratios as well as change precip to rain). For this one? I have no idea where I went wrong. Everything I looked at, and still everything I am looking at screams overperformer.

Giving up when there is 4-6 weeks left is a mistake, when we are buried under feet of snow mid March those who are canceling winter will realize it was a big mistake to do that when the polar vortex was close by and the pacific isn’t dominating the pattern like previous years (due to La Niña cooling it off). The signs for an epic March are there, look at what’s happening in Texas right now. The fact that arctic air is able to get that far South says something about the pattern we are in, and it says that zonal nonsense some of the models are spitting out in the long range is likely BS. The models have been saying that feb would suck in mid jan, then it moved back to mid feb would suck, now it has been moved back to it will suck in March. The atmospheric drivers do not support a zonal pattern this year, which is why they keep pushing it back. Just like how last year the models kept having a great pattern ahead but moved it back because the atmospheric drivers supported a mild and zonal pattern. 

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z Canadian sobered up from the 00z binge.

Yeah, that’s not a good run at all. It went way east with the low which I did not expect it to do, I’ll give it another run but I’m starting to think I’m going to bust. That’s too bad, the models looked good as they were last night, I don’t know why they shifted 50 miles east but they did, and that destroys my entire forecast.  It’s still close but what a terrible performance by the models making that big of a shift this close in.

Idk what eastern mass posters are whining about, we got a foot or close to it Superbowl Sunday and another major storm coming Friday. Yeah we kinda got screwed in the Feb 1-2 storm but this winter has been way better than the last 2 and way better than the majority of forecasts called for. Things looked really bad in November with the polar vortex parked over the North Pole and mild pacific air flooding the country. If you told me we would get the winter we got in early November with how things looked I wouldn’t have believed it for a second, I would have thought you were wishcasting. This winter has already overperformed in regards to seasonal expectations so I’m happy with it.

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's getting near the end. A few weeks left realistically and March already starts mild on guidance. 

Yeah we have about 4-6 weeks left but it can snow quite a bit in 4-6 weeks.

Just now, JC-CT said:

the NAVGEM doesn't show anything remotely close to a blizzard

I’m not expecting a blizzard, more sustained mod snow for 30 hours or so. However the latest run of the navy was more south though so I have to admit that is a red flag. I’m still waiting to see if it was just an off run or a trend before I get too concerned though, that is a fair point though about the navy not looking great. As a forecaster I want to try to be more accurate and avoid those crazy 3-4 feet snow calls that amount to nothing, so even if the models aren’t showing what I want to see I’m not just going to discount them. Blending the navy euro and Canadian still looks good for my idea of a 16-20 jackpot with most areas getting 12-15 when taking ratios into account so I’m going to stick with it, but I would like to see the navy come back north next run.

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

George I told you and warned you. Take it down a notch on the wishcast. Learn somethings 

I did, I looked at the upper levels on the models instead of just using surface temps and they seem to support my idea of higher ratio snow like the Superbowl Sunday storm. 

13 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps is still interesting for Monday. 

Miller b

I’m definitely a huge weenie but in my opinion James has earned the #1 spot with his 40 inch forecasts for cape cod and his book. I’m planning on buying a copy. Though on the other form I did call for 3-4 feet for the Jan 29th threat that ended up going out to sea, that ended up being a huge bust.

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

George, what current model guidance are you using to back your assertions?  Not one model is showing that much potential in the upper air pattern.

I use a 60/25/15 euro Canadian navy blend. I completely ignore the 10:1 snowfall maps when making my forecast, I am looking at things like jet dynamics, temps in the upper levels, ect. To me everything is screaming high ratio overperformer, Imo the euro evolution would get most areas to the lower end of my forecast, with the Canadian getting most areas to the higher end.  

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

serious question:  how old are you?

20

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How long did it take you get muted on the other forum? I need a plausible over/under...

It took me 2 weeks. They said I wasn’t learning but I disagree. When I first joined that forum I didn’t even know what a La Niña was and now I know what La Niña, El Niño, and even the polar vortex are. 

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Using the metric system is very thoughtful. 16-20cm is possible

Triple that and you got my forecast.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Not sure why you insist on double digit snowfall. I don’t totally hate the upside of this storm but a lot would need to go right to pull 10-12. It hasn’t trended that way so far. 

I’m forecasting 16-20 for your area

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

When places as far north as Dendy and Mark have 6-8”+, the post bumps to the debbies are gonna be epic 

I strongly agree. All of mass and parts of NH/VT/ME are getting hammered.