mannynyc

18Z GEFS members

Even if we miss this storm good snowcover to our north will help with future cold air.

Euro with some inland concerns. Definitely not as good of a look.

Here's the 12Z GEFS for January 7th.

For 1/7

This is 6Z but this it's a good visualization of how many solutions are still on the table 

Low placement looks pretty good on the EPS

GEFS 
HR 180 

HR 190

19 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not to hype, but that 50/50 is classic. this is a legit threat

Great look

We're so back. 

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So as of right now, is the 4-5 threat off the table? Or is it still a possibility in southern New England? The 6-7 threat looks like it's a non-threat right now... And that threat 11-12 still looks like the most potent at this point, correct?

For reference the GEFS ensemble 

Hard to get excited about the OP GFS when both storms are outliers in their own ensembles. 

Suppression could be helpful here in getting us cold air. GEFS likes the low far off shore.

Two days of snow in South Dakota!

Just now, mannynyc said:

Better than nothing on the OP GFS 

Can't say I'm a huge fan of the ensemble look but would rather at least have a coastal signal. 

Better than nothing on the OP GFS 

hmmmm

January 7th-8th is also an interesting timeframe to watch

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

This system coming up the coast late next week might have possibilities for NYC metro boarder line temps - nice track off the coast - climatology favorable

GFS ensemble

48 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ok, I could find many posts like this from you last year with no concern or changes but I regress.  I’m not seeing the big flip at all nor do I see it in the teleconnections.  It’s an ugly pattern out to the next two weeks and don’t see why week 3 or 4 would prove different

 

And yet 

Total wishcast but don't hate this look from the GEFS.