mannynyc

Better than nothing on the OP GFS 

hmmmm

January 7th-8th is also an interesting timeframe to watch

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

This system coming up the coast late next week might have possibilities for NYC metro boarder line temps - nice track off the coast - climatology favorable

GFS ensemble

48 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Ok, I could find many posts like this from you last year with no concern or changes but I regress.  I’m not seeing the big flip at all nor do I see it in the teleconnections.  It’s an ugly pattern out to the next two weeks and don’t see why week 3 or 4 would prove different

 

And yet 

Total wishcast but don't hate this look from the GEFS.

37 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

By previous pattern you mean one that doesn’t snow.  Thats the problem.  It might be a completely different pattern but like Ray said, if it’s not snowing in your backyard, it’s just going back to the “old” (aka non-snowy) pattern.

There are two types of patterns at this point for some folks… one that snows and one that doesn’t.  Doesn’t matter how the actual atmosphere looks across northern hemisphere.

It's worse than that. For some folks it's not a pattern change unless we get a massive coastal storm. 

Well at least we have 300+ hour fantasies

9 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

I will not look at 300 hour gfs runs this winter 

People forget that last winter was so bad we weren't even getting 300 hour fantasy blizzards from the GFS

I mean the coastal low is there, but so is the rain...

3 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS OP - shows the 1st storm passing by mid week then the upper low and more energy is left behind with not enough cold air to support frozen except in the Apps by late 12/29 early 12/30 a 993 LP off the south jersey coast - something to watch to see if colder air is somehow drawn into this system in future runs

12Z CMC shows similar system

12Z Euro has low placement too far offshore and south

Not a great look on the GEFS ensembles but it's better than tracking nothing

Doesn't need to be a big piece storm to end NYC's snow drought. A well placed piece of energy can give us 1-2 inches and remove the lid.

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Obviously not great but a 1-3 degree F anomaly doesn't mean it can't or won't snow, though it certainly will be harder. This shouldn't be used as a declaration of winter being over.

It's May 12th and I'm already ready for Winter. Good grief 

7 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

it is. Going to be a long hot summer because all of our summers are now long, hot and humid. Take the below normal when you can get it… In Just a few short weeks your air condition will be on for the next three months.

And that's why I spend my summers in Maine

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

so you saw it hang on until nightfall? it ended here around 4.

 

Yup, there was still some light snow at 7:30PM/8PM tonight

Obviously disappointing we didn't get a significant snowfall in NYC, not that one was expected, but walking outside with the snow falling this evening really reminded me why I loved winter. There was something about walking through the snowfall and seeing it gleam in the light that made me really happy. 

Radar is filling in nicely. Best chance for accumulating snow, especially outside NYC, the next few hours. 

5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

It's a weather board.  Don't shoot the messenger but this is a Miller A right where we want it at this time.

The GFS has been in and out for a perfect coastal storm for this time period. Would like more ensemble support but this is still in a reasonable window. 

RGEM has a warm bias, that's why it was showing rain instead of the snow the city is getting. Something to note when using it, especially with borderline events.

Wouldn't put too much much faith in the NAM at this point. It's not picking up on the secondary low over CT.

1 minute ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Well the way this baby is moving or lack thereof,id say once the sun starts setting..temps are gonna drop..lets see how the ccb performs.

Models suggest the snow is going to dry up by then

Snow mixing with rain in the city. Nothing unexpected 

26 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Depends how heavy/persistent these CCB remnant/bands get. NAM 3k gets the north shore down to around 33 as these bands pivot through, the city is stuck at 35-36. I doubt 35-36 would accumulate, but 33 might on the grass especially if it comes down moderate. How far SW these bands develop will really be a nowcast situation. I don't buy for a second the 4-5" amounts on the model, I think even where I am will be lucky to get more than an inch. 

Still think north shore will accumulate. Lots of models like bands setting up over LI.
 

On the other hand, every time the GFS has shown 1-2inch in the city nothing has fallen so I’m betting against anything in the city. 

8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Not bad. Problem is outside of the higher elevations it's 35 degrees and falling during the daylight hours in mid March.

This would be a great look in January and February but find it hard to believe it is going to stick in the middle of the day. Need really good rates.