SnowenOutThere

Which model is the NWS relying on because I don't really understand why it has a significant ice storm for the area. From my understanding the only models that really are behind this are the Nam models. I just don't really understand why it has this, the GFS just has a switch to rain and back to snow. The Euro is snow and so are a bunch of other models. Am I just not understanding something?

Guys we can't trust banding features until late Saturday they will continue to jump around.

I think this will be a storm where in the end it will come down to the costal low and where the banding features set up. Unfortunately we won't know this until Sunday when the storm is already occurring so for now looking at snowfall maps is not that helpful. Just take the RGEM it sets up the band right over Fairfax and DC and dumps over a foot! The 00z run had it miss us and we got a still respectable 5-10 inches of snow. We just won't know for a while what happens. What I am saying is don't trust the banding this far out wait till Saturday or Sunday.

It's starting to look like the GFS is finally caving to the Euro solution with the better costal low. Now all we need to get rid of is the mixing problem near I-95.

I think that the GFS finally is caving to the Euro.

Yes but this is only with 10-1 snowfall or the Kuchera ratio without it the GFS givs 3 positive snow depth change.