SnowenOutThere

The 1st part is the Monday is around 48 hours out and the possible banding Monday night is 60 hours out plenty of time.

I know, my bar for this storm was 5 inches of snow and we got to look at all of the model runs. The Euro gives the whole area 8-12 inches of snow the NAM gives it 6 it still looks like a major snowstorm for us and in DC major is more than 4 inches of snow. Also we might have an ice storm so that's something. I also don't understand why this whole thread is in a bit of a panic we did the same thing yesterday and then it switched right back. It is two to three days out we are fine, it might even have us in the bullseye by Sunday. The models are going to be jumpy this far out, not to mention the snow is setting up in heavy bands which will keep jumping around until the day of. Even then even if the whole second part misses we still get 2-5 inches of snow.

Guys we got greedy, lets just be happy that all of the models agree we get 3-6 inches of snow. Enough to look nice and cover the grass. Also this is for Sunday one of the rare times when the ground is frozen so it will stick. This happens almost every time with a Miller B but there is time for it to shift back to us it is still two-three days out.

Hey what does everyone think of the HRRR model 00z run with it running to 7pm Sunday. It seems to bring in the mix pretty quick but the coastal low seems to form pretty quick near the outer banks which is good for the second part of the system.

I just found whatever I could on google. Though good point. I will find a better one shouldn't be that hard.

I just like the weather and forecasting like everyone else here.

I made it in paint lol it works except if the map does not include if so I'm sorry.

Hey everyone I have revised my forecast and this is the new snowfall maps. The first map is the first or Sunday to Sunday night storm and the second one is the Monday to Tuesday storm. If you cant tell which is which the one where snowfall is lesser the further north that is the Sunday storm. The one where it increases the further north is the Monday threat. Tell me what you think and if you think it is accurate.

Uh the 2019 winter storm in jan I think it gave 6-12 inches of snow area wide.

I was joking

Oh no

The second that watch is over it just stops snowing that's how it works. Just like my map

Hey did anyone notice that the Watch only goes to Sunday night. So it does not even count the Monday stuff apparently.

Hey did anyone notice that the Watch only goes to Sunday night. So it does not even count the Monday stuff apparently.

The HRRR model looks to have a decent thump of snow before the model stops running so that's good.

Oh thanks sorry I that I don't look at things before I post.

Well pretty sure my post got deleted in the other thread which makes sense but where is my higher end accumulation map. This was made before the Watch was issued. The other one is my very low end forecast.

The newest NAM has a better Thump of snow on Sunday.

With the models starting to form something useable for snowfall maps I thought I would make some. The one with the most snow is assuming the RGEM run, GFS and others that have a robust coastal low and give a good amount. The one with the least snow has the low to far out to the east or north. I think it is a descent repersentation of what will happen also winter storm watch.

Which model is the NWS relying on because I don't really understand why it has a significant ice storm for the area. From my understanding the only models that really are behind this are the Nam models. I just don't really understand why it has this, the GFS just has a switch to rain and back to snow. The Euro is snow and so are a bunch of other models. Am I just not understanding something?

Guys we can't trust banding features until late Saturday they will continue to jump around.

I think this will be a storm where in the end it will come down to the costal low and where the banding features set up. Unfortunately we won't know this until Sunday when the storm is already occurring so for now looking at snowfall maps is not that helpful. Just take the RGEM it sets up the band right over Fairfax and DC and dumps over a foot! The 00z run had it miss us and we got a still respectable 5-10 inches of snow. We just won't know for a while what happens. What I am saying is don't trust the banding this far out wait till Saturday or Sunday.

It's starting to look like the GFS is finally caving to the Euro solution with the better costal low. Now all we need to get rid of is the mixing problem near I-95.

I think that the GFS finally is caving to the Euro.