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Current activity level is no match for the near full moon.  The hazy cirrus clouds aren't helping either.  Moon shouldn't be a problem after midnight.  

The sebec lake cam looks like daylight... guess they set the exposure for moonless nights.

18bt/-17bz is pretty decent.  Seems stable and becoming gradually more intense.  I have a real hard time buying G4 but G3 is probably a good bet. Southward extent of the oval will probably be reduced regardless of IMF values.

Slow moving or not, it packed a decent punch.  Bz has been stable in the -15 to -18 range and a G2 is in progress.

Nice glow to the north through gaps in the clouds, but nothing I'm standing outside for.

Two CME's are enroute currently.  Both are full halo's, but slow moving and not impressive.  However, anytime you get two fired back-to-back there is a possibility of enhanced activity.  This one should be of decent duration and will probably peak at a G2 on Saturday'ish.

What a glorious sunspot 2447 is.  Couldn't be in a more perfect position... lets hope the M2 flare produced a CME.

These types of events are not a dense cloud of plasma like a CME, they are basically just push brooms that gather things in front of them. You can see this if you look at the graphs... a pronounced spike in density, followed by an increase in the IMF, and then you get into the high speed wind stream.  Once you're into that stream (like we are now), the Bt falls to background levels and so even with a 100% south Bz, it's over.  

This one was pretty good... off the charts density, the Bt peaked near 40 and Bz dipped to -25. That would have been pretty epic BUT it wasn't sustained.  Not much will happen when the IMF graph looks like the EKG of a hummingbird.

Some super expensive cameras have lenses capable of realtime video. This one really shows the rapid movement you can get further north.  One of my favorites.

How did you NH guys miss this last night???

Nobody missed anything.  Looking at the number of stars in that photo tells me it's a looong exposure or shot with a very high iso.  The naked eye probably would have strained to see an imperceptible glow right along the horizon.  Yawn.

Maybe I'm in the minority, but if I can't see it I really don't care.  I don't see the point of taking pictures of a black sky so you can post it and make people think they missed something awesome.

Indeed, the IMF really tanked.  Bt had a sharp drop and is very steady at 7, Bz north. 

With the current numbers, odds of G3 are slim, and G2 is probable. We have extremely high speed solar wind (now gusting over 800km/s) working in our favor which can assist otherwise marginal numbers.  Even a minimally southward Bz should perform.  At the current speed, the reported conditions provide a 33 minute lead time.

IOW, keep an eye out. Am I signed up for your text alerts?

Lisa is.  I don't have your number on my new phone.

This is the coronal hole... it's early and extra fast.  Solar wind has increased and the last one-minute reading was 700.3 with a BT of 14-20 and a choppy but predominately negative Bz.  I could definitely see a G3 with easy naked eye visibility tonight.
 

Was anything visible?

I see there was indeed a G2 last night.  Looking at the ottawa magnetic summary plots, there was a pretty good jolt around 2am, so there was activity. Doesn't look like anyone was looking at the time though.
 

A disturbance just arrived.  Solar wind jumped to 450 with bz of -10, Bt 16.  A G2 might break out in about 30 minutes if it holds steady.

Tracking a CME from a C2 flare.  How desperate we've become.

Though I did get some great pics of a G3 storm from a C7 flare back around 2002.

It looks like the coronal hole arrived a bit early.  It packed a bigger wallop than your typical CH.

Solar wind around 670 with imf values of 17/-15 will always bring a nice G3.  G3 is good for naked-eye colors and well defined features.

Oh I am pretty sure it won't be.

There will be more extreme storms for sure, but a solar max with a stretch like 2001-2003, ending with the strongest flare ever observed, is unlikely.

Most in this forum only have about 4 solar cycles left before we die.  And the next few cycles are supposedly going to be much weaker than this one. And don't forget the geomagnetic pole is still slowly moving away from us.

Next solar max is just around the corner in 2022-2025. 

The 2003 aurora display over Long Island is one I will never forget (unfortunately I didn't have a camera capable of taking good photos of it at the time). It was incredible. Half the sky was visibily green and the other half visibly red and it was directly overhead. i was looking right at the Fire Island light which divided the two colors from where I was standing.

The 2001-2003 period may never be matched again in our lifetime.

That 2003 display wasn't even the only ultra-extreme event from that period... 11/6/01 matched or maybe defeated it, but I wasn't paying attention.  My interest in the aurora began just shortly before that after the massive event on 10/21/01, so I had no idea what I was doing yet.  

I think the only way to really take advantage of the ambient solar wind in the mid-latitudes is for a coronal hole stream to sort of intersect a CIR, though I'm not sure how often that happens in reality. I'm hoping we're not done with real sunspots for the rest of the cycle. That active region a couple weeks ago was huge, but pretty benign magnetically.

Compared to the last cycle, it felt like this one never really peaked at all.  I guess that was to be expected considering the last one basically would have yielded a carrington event or worse, had AR 486 fired off maybe 36 hours sooner.   

anything tonight? I wanna see it so bad! 

density: 12.9, good

speed:  448, poor

IMF:  16.9, moderate

Bz: +12.2, dreadful

Not seeing anything with those numbers.  If the IMF stays above 15 and Bz goes back south, then maybe some glows and meh will be seen.

Keep waiting for a well timed flare and CME... tracking these random spurts of solar wind is right up there with tracking alberta clippers. 

Bt has slowly creeped up to the bare minimum of around 15, so there will be glows. If the bz gets back to -10 there could be some better defined visible features.

It's just too weak.... a Btotal of under 10 is borderline background noise.  I'm sure MWN and 30 second exposures will find a glow to exaggerate, but this show is for central Canada.

SWPC just issued a G3 warning, which is a bit peculiar.

Yeah, a G3 with solar wind speeds below 400 seems like a stretch, but I guess we'll find out soon.

lots of meh.  bz and density are fine but the solar wind is too slow.

there is/will continue be activity but it probably won't be worth standing in the freezing cold unless you're doing long exposure photos.

Pretty meh looking CME.  Not surprising given the poor positioning of the originating sunspot.

G2 is a safe bet.  Nobody should have expectations of seeing anything worth getting out of your chair for.  This event is pretty much for cameras.

This is the longest I've ever seen continuous pulsations.  The greenish arc seems a little brighter now too.  

Particle density got mighty jumpy over the past few minutes. Would those spikes be enough for substorming or not really?

The ones that last just a few minutes... probably not.   I see those spikes to 20.... they should be here shortly so we'll see.