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Activity is getting started on the Sebec Lake cam:

http://sebeclake.net/camera_2.html

Typical green arc is slowly brightening and climbing higher.  Hopefully a nice substorm erupts.

Reached G4 now.

Just now, eyewall said:

The moon will be the issue.

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Yeah.

Down here, I've got that damn storm by Albany which is spewing a nice mass of clouds this way. Not to mention it's already 95% overcast to begin with.

7 minutes ago, eyewall said:

A CME has struck and the direction is way south -32nt. We shall see if the Kp is high enough. SWPC says a G2 is in progress.

Find clear sky. This could easily hit G4...this solar wind stream is absolutely perfect and about as juicy as it gets.

That disappointing sunspot from a few days ago decided to really rub salt in the wounds.  This backside CME looks straight out of 2003.

2 hours ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

Wow.  Nice and toasty while on vacation in Maine on Monday.  Lol.  

f***

55 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah ...in his defense, I was just trying to propose a base-line idea that a Kp 5  was probably not likely to be seen - but he spun off on some validation crusade where he's smarter than me, which may very well be the case (  ) BUT, interestingly enough, was the ONLY aspect of that conversation that was truly irrelevant  ..   

The Kp is basically just when the geo-magnetometers detects at given latitudes the ovular ring is assessed based on real-time detection - but it's an interesting secondary question re the "vibrant" intensity of it .. 

The guy who has insulted the intellect of more people here than anyone else, even attacked Dave, has the balls to suggest he be responded to with more tact, haha.

The only crusade was from you. You have a flimsy understanding of the Kp index and used it to suggest we weren't missing anything when the realtime data made it quite clear that we were.  There is literally nothing else to discuss about this.

11 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I am at the dam at the Waterbury reservoir. I know it will like my bust but we shall see

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Yeah this is going to be a dud.  The current solar wind isn't even good for Santa. Bummer.

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It doesn't seem you do.   But, that's fine - I tried to explain why "you were not missing out" at the time you made your post; but you seem to be evading that explanation for whatever reason.   

to each his own -

You are one weird dude. I said we were missing out because the timing was off and we were missing out on what would easily reach G2 or better.  Your "explanation" was evaded because the complex mechanics behind the weakness in the auroral oval on the daylight side of the earth, and premature evaluations of the Kp, were both rather irrelevant. 

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I know what it means...

And I know how to use it.

I see.

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder if we are, though -

The "auroral oval" on the web-site has a big gap in it over on our side of the hemisphere.  New England to southern Greenland is effectively 0 on that particular product.  Besides, the Kp index is really what we should be going by...and we usually need a minimum of 6 to start seeing it via longer exposure recording devices.

Presently it is only 5 ... So, gaps and fives ...meh.  That may and probably will change as the full onslaught of the CME continues to impinge upon the planetary system ..yadda yadda,  but for now, we aren't missing much if daylight is the only limitation. It's centered on the other side and is of lower storm strength at this time.  We'll see how things cook heading toward evening...

By miss, I mean be on the wrong side of the planet.

The Kp index tells you only what you've missed over the last 3 hours.  It's useless as an indicator of present or future activity.

lol, just saw it arrived a few hours ago.  Bz is more than -20 so we're missing a great show.  Odds of it staying that way for the next 14 hours are 0.01%.

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

I can remember taking the weenie ride through Moultonborough to see the snapped tree trunks. There is nothing quite like the bright white of a freshly snapped tree trunk.

A wall of 60 knots inbound.

Also, radar data sucked back then. I'm not even sure VCP 11 exists anymore, and if it does they are getting rid of it soon.

Do you have any loops?  I'll take anything you've got since I lost my folder with stuff from that day.

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

You had to have done okay on 7/6/99. The Lakes Region got slammed. Moultonborough had a pretty nasty microburst.

What a 4th of July week that was.

7/6/99 was my greatest storm of all time.  There was the initial gust front, then a lull, then a solid wall of white that raced across the lake from the NW. It looked like a heavy snow squall.  I stood outside in an absolute whiteout of wind-whipped mist and enjoyed the smell of splintering pines.  I saw basically nothing, but nothing has come close to the loudness of the wind ever since.  It remains the only time wind has knocked over trees on my property.

A+, would enjoy again.

Tornado in Barnstead that day, too.

1 hour ago, OceanStWx said:

Almost 20 years ago now: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul4-51999page.htm

Almost makes me sad that I wasn't awake to know it was missing to the north.  I could have worked up quite the frothy rage.

38 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You're due!

I need a summer home around FYV.  Those people probably don't even know how good they have it.

Been waiting for my derecho for about 20 years now.  

Getting impatient.

f***

I'm sad.

31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

yea couple days near 80, pretty meh, don't understand why anyone would do anything but open the windows on the house and let the beautiful smells of spring blooms through the house. Living in an AC bubble must be god awful. AC is good in HHH days but a couple of days with dews in the low 60s and 50s what are people thinking? Some oddballs might hide in the AC but a window fan is perfect

Look how skillfully it depicts me not having the warmth.  

29 minutes ago, ApacheTrout said:

And it's going to be clear tonight in many places.  Besides standing outside in a dark spot, what's your go-to page for stats?

No moon tonight, either. 

All you really need is this link.  That dip to near -20bz would have been great had it lasted until dark.  This is the front end of a coronal hole that supposedly has a weak CME entangled in it.  Should see a sudden jump in the solar wind speed at some point if true.

http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-24-hour.gif

Conditions are currently prime for a G2, fyi.

Pretty potent event this afternoon... reached G3.  Not much going on now.

Just noticed we missed a potent G3 this evening by a few hours.  Nice negative Bz flipped as the sun set.  

Some residual activity still ongoing right now along the horizon in a very low greenish arc.

IMF looks nice. Shame about all the clouds.

Yep.  Nice solid G2.

Looks like a couple nice coronal holes coming as well.

Perfectly positioned megaspot 2473 spewed a nice full halo CME today during a long duration M1 flare.  Definitely going to be some good action around the 30th.