LVwxHistorian
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Posts posted by LVwxHistorian
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8 minutes ago, RedSky said:
Thought Bethlehem received 1-2" in the Festivus miracle? That death band moved through the southern Lehigh Valley.
Got just a trace at ABE on Xmas eve. and look at this ugly forecast -- it looks like April!!
Extended Forecast forEmmaus PA
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This
AfternoonChance Rain
High: 37 °F
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Tonight
Rain Likely
then Chance
RainLow: 33 °F
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Tuesday
Partly Sunny
then Slight
Chance RainHigh: 48 °F
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Tuesday
NightRain
Low: 37 °F
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Wednesday
Chance Rain
High: 46 °F
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Wednesday
NightChance Rain
then Rain
LikelyLow: 39 °F
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Thursday
Mostly Cloudy
High: 50 °F
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Thursday
NightMostly Cloudy
then Chance
RainLow: 37 °F
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Friday
Mostly Sunny
High: 50 °F
Detailed Forecast
This AfternoonA chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 37. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.TonightRain likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.TuesdayA slight chance of rain after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 48. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.Tuesday NightRain, mainly after 7pm. Low around 37. North wind around 5 mph becoming east after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.WednesdayA chance of rain, mainly before 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 46. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.Wednesday NightRain likely, mainly after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 39. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.ThursdayMostly cloudy, with a high near 50.Thursday NightA chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 30%.FridayMostly sunny, with a high near 50.Friday NightA chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Chance of precipitation is 40%.New Year's DayRain likely. Cloudy, with a high near 51. Chance of precipitation is 70%.Saturday NightRain likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Chance of precipitation is 60%.SundayA chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 53. Chance of precipitation is 50%.Sunday NightA chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 30%.MondaySunny, with a high near 35.- 1
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37 minutes ago, RedSky said:
The 408hr GFS was going to show a blizzard.
Weenie rule book page 67 - If you have to project a digital fantasy blizzard post 384hr GFS run your in serious bad shape this winter better to fall into a coma for 90 days
Yeah, probably as effective as picking up a weather history book and reading about old storms!!
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Just now, LVwxHistorian said:
We should probably suspect of Gordon's temp. records too, no?! Lol!!
Oh my bad I thought it said 1893!!
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1 hour ago, ChescoWx said:Today's High Temperature of 56.6 was the 10th warmest Christmas Day in Chester County PA weather history with the warmest high temp being the 66.7 back on Christmas Day of 2015. The coldest Christmas Day here in Chester County since records began back in 1894 was Christmas Day in 1983 with a high temperature of only 6 degrees above zero and a low temp of 3 degrees below zero
We should probably be suspect of Gordon's temp. records too, no?! Lol!!
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2 hours ago, RedSky said:
Only reason I remember it is because that was the year we got snow days for being too cold for school.
January 94 Allentown school district had the whole week off for snow AND cold -- the ultimate "snow week"!!
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51 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:
I'll chime in again (lol), but maybe it was because it's Christmas and snow on or around this time is something many of us like a lot, and don't see too often. I imagine RedSky longingly looking at past Christmas snows and coming across 1976. Probably something else though, haha.
If 1993-94 was the ice winter, 76-77 was the cold winter. We skated on ponds before Christmas that year. I remember thinking what a waste of cold weather, it had been below freezing most days since Thanksgiving. It finally snowed Christmas night here, about 2 inches or so starting in the late evening. It was cold and the snow was real dry, not heavy, but just floating down. It was a beautiful sight! And yeah January was colder. I think they had an icebreaker come up the Delaware.
Makes since, just didn't think Red Sky was that old -- that was my first winter on Earth!
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2 hours ago, RedSky said:
Allentown snow December 1976
16 T
17 T
20 T
21 T
23 T
25 1.4"
26 2.2"
27 .5"
28 1.5"
29 T
New Years day T
The amounts are light but what a time with snow in the air for the holidays
Mildest day after the 20th was 38F on the 23rd
January that followed was 11.5F below normal
Why did you choose this month? And JAN 77 was coldest JAN ever -- 18.6 mean
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18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
Nothing expert about it. Just trying to put pieces of this wx puzzle together.
Ok, just asking, no offense intended!
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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:
This setup coming in 7-14+ days reminds me of 2010 and 2016. Still thinking at some point the chances for a larger storm are increased this JFM. We see what the base state has been with high lat atl blocking and a near-stationary block in the N PAC. STJ has had some waves riding thru so I wouldn't rule out this links up with the PJ once or twice in our favor.
Thank you, your expert analysis is always appreciated ... wait, are you an expert?
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6 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said:
Oh here they are:
It's official: Ice storm breaks Peco record for winter outages (inquirer.com)
Officially, here are the 12 highest outage totals in the history of Peco, which goes back more than 100 years.
1. 850,000 lost power, Superstorm Sandy, Oct. 29, 2012
2. 715,000 and rising, ice storm, Feb. 4, 2014
3. 549,100, ice storm, Jan. 7, 1994
4. 517,343, Hurricane Isabel, Sept. 18, 2003
5. 508,048, Hurricane Irene, Aug. 27, 2011
6. 483,131, wind, lightning, July 18, 2006
7. 408,822, Hurricane Floyd, Sept. 16,1999
8. 400,000-plus, winter storm, March 20, 1958
9. 369,511, Hurricane Hazel, Oct. 15, 1954
10. 334,987, tornado, May 31, 1998
11. 326,019, summer storm, June 24, 2010
12. 320,215, wind, lightning, July 16, 1980is #3: 563,000
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5 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said:
Yeah, I remember reading about that record January record ice storm in Storm Data, in terms of PECO outages. Not sure if it's been surpassed -- maybe Irene in 2011?
That winter LV had 75" and Phila only 23" -- biggest difference ever by a wide margin
Oh here they are:
It's official: Ice storm breaks Peco record for winter outages (inquirer.com)
Officially, here are the 12 highest outage totals in the history of Peco, which goes back more than 100 years.
1. 850,000 lost power, Superstorm Sandy, Oct. 29, 2012
2. 715,000 and rising, ice storm, Feb. 4, 2014
3. 549,100, ice storm, Jan. 7, 1994
4. 517,343, Hurricane Isabel, Sept. 18, 2003
5. 508,048, Hurricane Irene, Aug. 27, 2011
6. 483,131, wind, lightning, July 18, 2006
7. 408,822, Hurricane Floyd, Sept. 16,1999
8. 400,000-plus, winter storm, March 20, 1958
9. 369,511, Hurricane Hazel, Oct. 15, 1954
10. 334,987, tornado, May 31, 1998
11. 326,019, summer storm, June 24, 2010
12. 320,215, wind, lightning, July 16, 1980- 1
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1 hour ago, KamuSnow said:
93-94 was the ice winter here. You could see the grass through 3" of ice in our yard, and you could sled on a 1° incline. Memorable!
Yeah, I remember reading about that record January record ice storm in Storm Data, in terms of PECO outages. Not sure if it's been surpassed -- maybe Irene in 2011?
That winter LV had 75" and Phila only 23" -- biggest difference ever by a wide margin
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2 hours ago, RedSky said:
Would be one hell of a kick in the behind if this winter was a dead ratter and be looking back at the records to see it snowed on Christmas Eve
That's exactly what happened in 93-94, virtually nothing through December, coating on Xmas, then WHAM 75"!! At least here in the LV, not so great in Phila.
PS thanks so much for fixing your tagline, though I liked JAn 2016 data. And I was confused by your new one till I looked it up, lol!
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8 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:
Wake me up if it's snowing at 2 am k thanks.
I hate to say it, but this is just pathetic -- people staying up late to catch a snow squall at the end of December in eastern Pennsylvania when we should be getting buried by a real storm!!!
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53 minutes ago, MJO812 said:
We might see one huge Blizzard and that's it.
I'll take it. Just like 2016 and 1983 -- diamonds in the rough!!
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45 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:
My interpretation is that it was one of the rare times a day 10 epic storm on the models actually verified. Does it still bother you?
Uhh yah I'm still bothered, why the AND? , why not just "epic day 10 storm"??? Doesn't that cover everything important?!
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7 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:
Eggnog?
No just vodka -- bottom shelf, lol! It's just always bothered me, that "AND"!
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52 minutes ago, RedSky said:
Horsham Park use to allow skating and had barrel fires in the 1800's err umm I meant the 70's. Somebody must have fallen through because they put a stop to it after the 70's. The early 80's were plenty cold to continue it.
"January 2016 - month of the epic day 10 storm AND the epic storm" sounds like you're talking about 2 different storms!
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1 hour ago, RedSky said:
Can we get 3 to 4" ice on local skate ponds this winter it may not happen
Sure, just hop in a time machine back to the 70s or even some years in the early 80s!
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2 hours ago, RedSky said:
There is a wild card scenario here however. Nobody and I mean NOBODY saw February of 2021 coming. The climate has changed radically so old analogs hold less weight.
IMHO, I think you're right on both points!
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1 hour ago, RedSky said:
Winters in Philly are not great after a zero snow accumulation in December.
Don't tell that to 1978-79: Trace in DEC then 40"
Or 1977-78: 0.2" in DEC then 55"
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34 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:
I'm replying to your "You sure about that?" reply then you go completely off topic w/the 2009 storm and say "Deal with that!" like you were right...
Sorry I wasn't clear (and neither were you). I was saying that in 2009, people must have been like "man this is our first snow of the season and it's 2 feet!!" I wasn't referring to your comment about beating the record.
And when I said are you sure about beating the record, I was wondering how you can see so far into the future when just 0.1 inches is involved!
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6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:
LATEST first snow..please read and comprehend. (.1 or more)
I understand perfectly sir, I'm saying that's a helluva first snow!!! What don't YOU understand?
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E PA/NJ/ DE Winter 2021-22 OBS Thread
in Philadelphia Region
Posted
Of course I would have put the blizzard first!