LVwxHistorian

40 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Are you part of some sort of Accumulation Totals Task Force? (ATTF) 

31F/Cloudy/Gusty

More like basic common sense task force -- nobody got even close to 8" !!

3 hours ago, SP said:

Wow looks like an over performer. Should be closer to 8-10 when done.


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Uhh, no

Anybody else notice the 1-day temperature crash with last the storm:  Atlantic City 62 to 19, Phila 63 to 25!!!

1 hour ago, CoolHandMike said:

That was my first winter back in the area after living out of state for about 15 years. I distinctly recall telling my wife (a Cali girl) "Oh, no, it hardly ever snows here. Maybe a couple of inches here and there."  I think the snow-on-snow glacier lasted well into March on that one.

 

Today was cold! Luckily I got to sit in my car for half the day, waiting on other people to get their stuff sorted. Just a couple of inches on the ground in Pennsville, but it was pretty.

what kind of work?

15 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

I think he's trying to pull the reverse psychology thing... 

Man, if reverse psychology worked on inanimate objects like the atmosphere, I'd be doing it all the time!!

5 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

the Euro will not let me down, Oh c'mon baby another whiff for the LV so our no measurable snow record can be broken. The model chaos will send everything to the coast and leave us with a high and dry tundra surface 

 

 

Man, what's you obsession bro?!   What a perverse record to want to be part of!  

 but I actually get it -- if you can't be part of something good, might as well go all the way with something bad!!!   Lol

28 minutes ago, RedSky said:

12z runs edged southeast was expecting another bump NW 

 

 

expecting or hoping??!!

26 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

When is the last time the shore/S Jersey/DE received a legitimate "snow on snow"...meaning inches per event? There may be one but I don't remember it. It's even difficult up our way...

19F

JAN 1987?

How about latest day with at least an 1" -- Feb 9, 2017!!

34 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

No way 12 to 18".   The models cannot even agree on one inch right now outside of 24-36 hours . What are you  smoking?  I want some of that. I would love to see that amount but it is not in the cards right now 

 

 I agree there is a 50/50 chance of a measurable snow right now for the LV and that is all I can agree on with this chaotic LR model runs and the extremely progressive jet stream over the US.  One run shows 12-18 in, the next makes the storm disappear all together. The model runs both short and long range are pretty bad right now as the buoy data in the Pacific cannot be ingested quick enough into the models because of fast jet stream to make them more reliable. I keep saying we need to send drones over the PA ocean and SW desert areas to supplement the atmospheric wind/temp data gathering over  vast open areas and to perhaps help  launch more weather balloons . I am surprised nobody at NOAA has thought of that 

Lol!  Gotta wait and see I guess.  That's a good idea about drones -- I guess it's because they're still an emerging technology, especially as far as data collection goes

2 hours ago, Albedoman said:

Goody goody,  breaking the latest no measurable snowfall record is still in play.  The 12Z model runs are  insisting on breaking this record too as they too are already pushing the next storm out to sea.  The east central snow hole lives on  Hurray.

what about Friday when we get 12 to 18"?!!   

2 hours ago, hurricane1091 said:

Crazy how it works right? I'm in SNJ but even here nothing going on. A little s/e it's a different story. Not too often does the shore get a foot of snow and PHL N&E nothing but it was overdue to happen again.

Yup this one of them few storms

In the LV the Snow Nazi says, "No accumulation for you - NEXT!!!"

In the LV the Snow Nazi says, "No accumulation for you - NEXT!!!"

11 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

Just asking as we need to do a lot of rigorous testing and p-value analysis like I have done with the Chester County data to ensure it is valid and comparable between stations following observation location movements

Yeah I'm not that sophisticated, I figure if the data is good enough for NWS then it's good enough for me.  Elevation is 254' vs 390' and distance about 6 miles, and in the 1920s and 30s there wasn't too much urban heat yet so ....

What you should really be worried about are Gordon's messed up snow figures, lol! 

1 hour ago, RedSky said:

Besides the fact it was a snowstorm 36hrs ago and a rainstorm 12hr later and might be a rainstorm at 18z, yeah a decent computer model

23 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said:

Climate (weather.gov)

But to elaborate, as you know, they use downtown Allentown data from 1922 to 1944 (maybe 1938?) then airport data, between which there is really not much difference considering the warmer current normals:   see:

Geology of Lehigh and Northampton Counties, PA - Historical Works

a few years ago I saw them list pre-1922 temp data in a list of record warm months and they told me that it was from Lehigh University (also in the above link), but their means are much warmer than Allentown which is probably why they no longer use them in the combined dataset 

15 minutes ago, ChescoWx said:

What combined sources do you use for your data??

Climate (weather.gov)

43 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said:

I don't know much about models but when I see Euro, I think accurate (?)

I mean as models go

12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro is a MECS especially N and W for Friday.

I don't know much about models but when I see Euro, I think accurate (?)

43 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

whats the latest day for measurable snow in allentown?  It maybe in jeopardy?

 

 

Jan. 13th -- 2000 and 1966, so yeah, maybe!

So the lowest high temp. at LVIA this month was 36 on 2 days which is only surpassed in the warmest DEC ever, 2015, when the lowest high was 39, though 2015 was MUCH warmer overall with +13 degree departure (current month about +4).

DEC 1923 also had 36 as its lowest max., but that's with 3 days of missing data and having been taken in downtown Allentown instead of at the cooler airport.

24 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Looking ahead, I'm not sure there is a whole lot to get excited about tbh. There is the tiny window centered around Jan 3 that is trending to a fropa with a quick zipping followup wave South of the region as cold chases precip. Could still be a burst of snow especially for the Southern parts of the region Monday AM. 

Another longwave fropa centered near the 7th with a followup wave on its heels also. We'll see if there is a better look for that setup as lead times diminish.

Hemispheric pattern looks to be making adjustments starting in less than a week. Im wondering if the high lat blocking including the PAC monster near the Aleutians are shifting around due to this SSWE in the short term:

It is right after this that we can detect the PAC block propagating from Aleutian chain up into a negative EPO ridge, negative AO:

I've seen worse patterns modeled under 10 days, but more wanted to note the SWE ties to the HL ridging shifting around. The SPV is damn stubborn though and is not showing signs of being pushed around as much as we saw modeled a few days ago. The blob of warm convection in the strat at 132 hours should still be enough of a catalyst to try and shuffle things around wrt the HL tellies. 

AO is forecast to move near neutral with a clustering weak negative:

Looking out farther, we also see the negative NAO ridge get shunted by the TPV as it tries and settle in near Baffin Bay. The NAO ens forecast reflects the TPV nudging the NAO out of the domain as it trends positive:

The former NAO ridge becomes more of a flat North Western Atl ridge. Meanwhile, the blocking in the EPO hangs on and there is a mid lat ridge extending all the way into the far n and w portion of the PNA domain. A weak split flow is trying to develop off the W Coast. Not the best positioned PNA (neutral to slight positive at best here) but I've seen worse looks. 

The PNA is forecast to relax towards neutral. A better positioned ridge would likely have this index as a positive so we will see where this heads moving forward:

This ens prog hemispheric pattern reminds me alot of Feb 2018. Iirc, that wasn't the greatest month on record for winter weather. Here is the UL hemispheric pattern for that month which can be compared to some of the LR ens means looks:

What strikes me is based on the progression on the ens means developing that TPV near Baffin with other tellies comparable to early Feb 2018, once the pattern reloaded following the Baffin TPV which proved to be transient, the pattern rolled over on itself and went right back to a look similar to the current 500mb pattern with a big negative PNA, Aleutian PAC pig block, negative NAO, SER, (which the latter 2 linked up in 2018 similar to several times we have already see THIS winter). If you look at the temps for Philly in Feb 2018 you can see the roller coaster after the TPV moved out and the pattern rolled back to a big negative PNA with full lat ridging in the East:

Go back and compare the LR ens with the 2018 500mb early February means...striking similarities. Im wondering if we do end up with a period of warmth later in Jan (thaw?) after a period of cold/dry when the TPV meanders towards Baffin out towards the beginning of the 2nd week of January.

So I know first things first, but no way to sugarcoat the next 7 days or so seem rather uneventful for Philly proper in terms of winter weather. Many folks are begging for the pattern to reshuffle as we can't get much more boring actually. We should see things reshuffle towards the end of week one January. Signs are we finally get a cold air feed as the TPV positions itself near Baffin Bay and the EPO ridge allows for the cold in Western Canada to finally start to spill East and press South. Thereafter is a coin toss but there are similarities to Feb 2018 and if that former progression is to be believed, the pattern after the 'reshuffle' rolls over on itself and heads right back to a SER link-up with the N Atl ridge, a return to a negative PNA, and and stubborn PAC Aleutian ridge anchoring back in. This turned into quite a warm spell in mid Feb 2018 after a cold start and I am wondering if this is how Jan 2022 will also progress ie cold start followed by a significant Jan "thaw"? 

thanks for all the info -- when I first saw it, I thought it was from Don Sutherland!

39 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Not only is this performing like a dead ratter winter, it's the worst for digital fantasy snow ever. I have 16" of digital snow on the electronic yard stick a normal winter is 36" by this point. 

 

what does this mean?  If you lived on the Pocono Plateau?!

On 12/27/2021 at 3:08 PM, Albedoman said:

No snow whata whiff -strike two. Another sleet band coming through maybe.  That will be strike three. The air coming over the Blue Mountains sucked the living hell out of available moisture to cool the profile too. Another flooding event coming with .10 rain over the next two days LOL 

 

These long range models really suck in this chaotic weather pattern. I have come to the conclusion that any significant snowfall will have to be thread the needle event until the gulf of mexico opens up for moisture availability.  Its really sad that the lake effect snow region has zilcho in the snow dept. There are many ski resorts, snow mobile trial operations and snow plow contracting operations that are going to be in pretty bad shape unless this pattern breaks. https://www.weatherstreet.com/weather-forecast/Snow-Depth-US.htm

Yeah, but elderly people are gonna be in good shape, not breaking their hips on all the ice and snow!!!