Jt17
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Everything posted by Jt17
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Agree, I also am sure the ratios will be between than 10-1 in most places in a cold storm like this. People exaggerate when they say the ratio maps have no merit. The final ratios usually end up somewhere between 10-1 and the Kuchera map output and the western fringes should have a better shot at lining up with the Kuchera ratios anyway.
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12z: 6z: 30 mile shift west or so this run and a bit more organized and potent storm.
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If this is what we got the forum would be pretty happy, though it looked so close to something special that run.
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Def improved! 12z: 6z:
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Out to hour 39 on pivotal it looks better
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this is 18 hours ago before all of the other models hopped way back and GFS has recovered a bit since then fwiw.
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See you all at 12:47.
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Remember when everything (except gfs) shifted 200-300 miles last night west taking everybody off the ledge. Well depending on the model you look at, they've drifted back 20-100 miles east. Most around 50 miles. That big shift was only about about 12 hours ago. The storm is 36 hours away. There's plenty of time for changes and on most models it wouldn't take much for something great. I wouldn't write off anything yet, for better or worse.
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Nice!
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I agree, it's why I haven't given up on something major. Smallest of changes can have a huge impact on how this plays out!
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Do you have a comparison of the next frame too?
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It's a little better for sure, but still has a lot of work tho
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This.
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Ok now this is something
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NYC - queens. The heart of the forum. Where the gfs went from .6 to .8 inches of snow. It didn't cave. (Yet). I'm in the camp of the cmc/euro/nam anyway. I just don't get why anybody is pumping up this gfs run lol
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It's much less than people are making it out to be. I'm surprised. I've been calling out people for overemphasizing negative shifts more than they actually were. I'm going to stick with my laurels even in the opposite direction, because this was a tiny wobble on the GFS. Not a shift.
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Dude, it's the same lol
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Looks the same as last run man.
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I think/hope that's just noise - eventually when it's cleaned up closer to the event it should have a positive impact on how the storm eventually looks
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It looks VERY similar output wise.
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So more like NAM 6z
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Compare it to 18z: can't get much more similar. It basically held steady. Could easily trend a little deeper and west tomorrow. Or not, but it wasn't east trend. Saying that gives the wrong idea to people reading the thread. (Not directed at you, just in general)
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Checking the snow maps there's perhaps a 10-15 mile east shift for the outer extent of heavy snows. So held pat essentially. It looked more tucked earlier in the run, hopefully that trend continues and pans out a little further up track as a result.
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It ends up nearly identical to its previous run during showtime - hours 54-69
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It's already past us at this point. Before anybody freaks out. It's basically identical at hour 63 to the last run.
