IowaStorm05

10 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

The potential warm layer is between 700-800mb

Could I kindly request you explain what that translates to for us?  The location in relation to the low?

I hope the slightly lower than forecast temps means something for mixing risks. But I’m not naive 

Can’t quite call us “hill terrain”, but it ain’t the CT River Valley.

I saw those possibilities of mixing that edge right up to the border of the county. But oh, we are sitting at 2 degrees below our expected high and current temp forecast

I stand by my 5 inch worst case scenario, as a result of sleet.

but I’m hoping for 10”

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Ever watch Yellowstone? They just get shot. 

Seems like folks just don’t like clowns in these parts no more like they did in the 20th century

HRRR verbatim calling 18 inches kuchera IMBY. Exciting prospect 

And HRRT came in strong 

Euro actually is really calling for a bit of a coastal special, kinda

3 minutes ago, Southshorewx said:

Well... how much time ya got?

Lots!

What’s wrong with the GFS?

GFS looks like it caved and came north to me. It’s not nearly as strong either. Canadian also looks less exciting than others. I’m not overly concerned though. Still a solid moderate storm at worst 

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Love the back edge band on this.

Weird how much the mix gets north into the coastal plain considering the placement of the low. Very strong windup

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Any Weenie prefers the porn over the math. 

Ya that’s why I never made it in my feeble pursuit for a masters and career with NOAA

Simply Crushed 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

NAM looks a shade SE of 18z so far through 24h

Yeah I’m noticing how cold it’s coming in for Philly

7 minutes ago, Hoth said:

That storm was awful for much of CT. Radar wound up shredded and the snow was like baking powder. Super dense and didn't add up to much. The wind was awesome though.

I’ve been armchair hobbying weather at various intervals and when I was a kid it was consistent and obsessive. But tonight is my schooling lesson and first exposure to the notion that amounts could really vary like that without, for example, rain shadowing or whatnot. “Subsidence” takes on a whole new meaning to me tonight.

I didn’t know everyone got screwed when we got crushed in 2010. Just wow!

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s  one of my top 3. Had 22” here. I kept worrying that dry slot would get back to Tol county , but instead we kept upsloping with 1-2” per hour while 8-10 miles east was dim sun 

I looked back on the Dec 2010 storm after Ice1972 didn’t like it... and the snow map I found was... erratic. I was in Coventry, CT.... I swear we got feet. At LEAST 20 inches. But this map shows bulk of CT with random numbers many under 6 inches... with lots of “dots and bubbles”

This all looks great. But I’m not sure it will be a Christmas 2010 in CT just yet 

2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Always better to play with fire and take your chances! 

Oh ya I remember living in Woonsocket in early 2004. It was a decent winter in SNE, but at least a few snows missed us to the south, hitting Warwick and Westerly 

6 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

checked my records - 11" of snow + a full inch of sleet

Kevin had 14"

Oops  but even better 

12 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I've had Mar 2017 on my mind all morning, i went back and looked at everything i saved from it, model runs etc. The crazy thing is my first call forecast and my first call for this...

I really don't think we're looking at that kind of an outcome though. That thing was really tucked into the coast and had a more typical SW to NE trajectory, where this one comes north and scoots out E/ENE. Also thermals aren't even close to where they were with that storm atm. Things can trend that way but thats not where were at. 

I'd say about 12 hours before that storm i knew we were in bring trouble as ever model had mixing well into CT as 850s and 925s blew right up the coast. 

Here's the analysis and model runs from that event. 

I looked it up at least it did snow in all of CT and only extreme SE got screwed. It looks like it was 7-9 inches for JC-CT, me and Tolland. 

3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Can’t see the individual members at 500 mb, but overall it looks like the northern part of the kicker is digging more. In effect that sharpens the downstream side of the ridge out west. Makes the whole pattern more amplified and closer to classic looking for New England snow.

What exactly does that translate to (for us newbies). A rain snow line from Norwich to Providence to Boston? When I look at past classics, or common events,  that rain/snow line has wildly varying different degree of tilt slicing thought coastal plains, but it’s there nevertheless 

So in summery aren’t buying the 12z Euro 

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Through 60

What’s this deal with the snow line completely and perfectly contouring itself over the coast proper? 

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Well see... outside of the NAM the runs really haven’t been THAT bad here.

Yeah not game over but way too close for comfort. If we get a 25 mile tick SE on the most adversarial models and lock it in, we are good

Forgive my frivolous comment. But I sit here and I dream.... Canadian and Ukie stay steadfast, and suddenly NAM and GFS dive 45 miles southeast on their 18z runs. 
 

Hopes. Dreams. I finally take a shower.