Think there just playing it safe for now
Heavy Wet Snow Threat...
As mentioned above, strong jet dynamics, explosive deepening/
intensification and duration of event supports qpf up to 2 inches
per ensembles and 3+ inches per deterministic guidance! Definitely a
lack of cold air on the front end of this system, with only a 1020
mb high over southeast Quebec, but this is common for mid March.
Thus, cold air for snow will have to come from dynamical and
diabatic cooling processes, which is possible given the high qpf
from ensembles and deterministic guidance. As mentioned above, the
exact timing, location and evolution of closed low south of New
England will determine rain/snow line. Typically this time of year
elevation is favored for heavy wet snow, but given the 2-3" of qpf,
it can snow at lower elevations, including the coastline, depending
on where the dynamical and diabatic cooling processes take place. So
the eventual track and evolution of this system will have to be
watched closely. Current guidance (ensembles and deterministic) and
trends support a moderate to high risk for 6-12" (possibly higher
amounts) across northwest CT into western MA, including northern
Worcester County. Given this, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued
for this area beginning Monday evening and continuing into Wed
morning. Less snow is expected south and east, closer to the storm
track and warm airmass. Although, still 2-3 days away, so forecast
adjustments are likely. If these heavy wet snow amounts materialize,
the threat of power outages will exist, and is concerning given the
duration of this event.