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ineedsnow

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Everything posted by ineedsnow

  1. Well either way this should be the best storm of the season here
  2. we both should do good being above 1,000 will help us for sure
  3. Feeling good up this way but the NAM was concerning even if it is a crap model
  4. It's still amazing me how the CMC and RGEM are pretty much exact with their snowfall maps
  5. Think there just playing it safe for now Heavy Wet Snow Threat... As mentioned above, strong jet dynamics, explosive deepening/ intensification and duration of event supports qpf up to 2 inches per ensembles and 3+ inches per deterministic guidance! Definitely a lack of cold air on the front end of this system, with only a 1020 mb high over southeast Quebec, but this is common for mid March. Thus, cold air for snow will have to come from dynamical and diabatic cooling processes, which is possible given the high qpf from ensembles and deterministic guidance. As mentioned above, the exact timing, location and evolution of closed low south of New England will determine rain/snow line. Typically this time of year elevation is favored for heavy wet snow, but given the 2-3" of qpf, it can snow at lower elevations, including the coastline, depending on where the dynamical and diabatic cooling processes take place. So the eventual track and evolution of this system will have to be watched closely. Current guidance (ensembles and deterministic) and trends support a moderate to high risk for 6-12" (possibly higher amounts) across northwest CT into western MA, including northern Worcester County. Given this, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for this area beginning Monday evening and continuing into Wed morning. Less snow is expected south and east, closer to the storm track and warm airmass. Although, still 2-3 days away, so forecast adjustments are likely. If these heavy wet snow amounts materialize, the threat of power outages will exist, and is concerning given the duration of this event.
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