Given strength of wind field throughout the column, combined with
high instability and steep low level lapse rates, greatest risk is
for strong to damaging winds, with highest probabilities across
western CT, including Hartford county into western and central MA.
In addition, anomalous wind fields thru the column combined with
model soundings showing large curved hodographs and high STP values
of 1.5-3, yielding an elevated risk for tornadoes. CSU machine
learning probs, updraft helocity swaths from the HREF and NCAR wind
probs all support the potential for a high end severe weather event
18z-00z across western-central MA, possibly into northwest CT.
Convection is expected to arrive in RI and eastern MA in a weaken
state, as greatest shear and instability remain northwest of I-95
corridor. Secondary concerns are large hail and brief heavy
downpours.