WinterWxLuvr

If I got to witness 93 again I’d forfeit snow for 5 years gladly

From the guy who has made a career of posting 16 day snow maps

Now that looks good to me

But that could also lead us to sheared out storms that’s slide off the coast could it not?

I am willing to learn how that last pattern is good for our latitude. We don’t get snowstorms on the downward side of a trough.

I get whiplash reading this thread

I will say that sooner or later one of these cutters will probable barrel into a high parked over NE bad at least we will get a slopfest

Good. No cutters and their accompanying wind/rain/freeze your ass off for a day front to blow through.

The SER gets flattened all the time by the ensembles at long range. And then in reality at game time it isn’t. Everything gets flattened on an ensemble mean at long range. I feel like people are being intentionally oblivious to the obvious.

Can you speed that up?

This. The ensembles have been very unreliable anytime they have shown a good pattern at 10+ days. That’s the thing I was mentioning yesterday. This has been a repeating error. Might be different this time but typically once we advance about 3 days the look is completely different.

For me the entertainment value now is seeing just how far west the ICON and Euro can get this low. ICON almost gets it to Iowa. 5 runs ago it was in Norfolk.

I think Manitoba is still in the cards for this low

Since 0z last night the ICON has taken a low from Norfolk to St Louis. Think I’ll pass on placing faith in that model.

Depends upon one’s perspective I suppose. I find snow falling while I’m listening to it melt more depressing than it not snowing at all.

Correct. No

Of course. Now why didn’t I think of that?

This is the story of the winter. Good looks on ops and the ens at about days 10-12. I think it was 3-4 days ago and somebody, maybe @WxUSAFsaid they would take the 6z gfs and call it a winter. Could be wrong but somebody said that. Now, 3-4 days later, it’s trash wall to wall. This has happened all winter. Ops and ens are missing something around day 3 that is seriously affecting these good looks down the road. It’s not just the randomness of larger error as you progress in time. That’s to be expected. This is the same error over and over. I have no idea why. I just find it interesting. I wonder if errors are studied at the 3-4 range and I also wonder if there is a consistent type of error if it can be accounted for in the programming. Rambling post but just a curiosity. BTW, I fully expect the models to reverse course and we will get a snowstorm this weekend

It wouldn’t take much. My thoughts are we have what we need in the east but a little more ridging in the southwest would go a long way.

I’ve never seen the euro control be correct. Unless it was one of those times when virtually every member was a bomb

Fixed it

I feel really good with one model having the bad solution. It never works when one model has the good solution.

GFS in the midst of a full scale cave towards the farther south solutions. That’s my call. And I’m actually more worried about a slider than I am about an OV low.

Looks roughly the same through hour 3

I’ve ridden in a Cadillac. Hundreds of times, thousands.