WinterWxLuvr

I think analog forecasting isn’t all that great. Sure it will work most of the time just like predicting median snowfall will have you looking decent in the end. But I’d venture to say that there’s been more than enough winters that would have gone strongly against whatever analogs that would have been used to predict them. What would the analogs have said heading into 95-96? 14-15? 15-16? Some winters are just simply gonna bust the analogs. Some good. Some bad. And winter can be so tricky with luck and timing. I have no idea what the general patterns and stats look like in retrospect for the winter of 18-19 but the lasting impression of that winter is that it was pretty good. We had enough snow and enough cold that it felt like we had had a winter. And perception is reality regardless of what any final numbers may say.

I’ll say this much for that post ... it’s an absolute fact that we don’t see clippers of late. That’s puzzled me for a while. I’ve even made mention of that myself.

Perhaps the AO summer correlation is as dependable as the SAI is.

Is the GFS gonna be upgraded? If so, when? I hope so because if last winter is an indication it can’t be trusted.

12-13 and 13-14 were cold neutrals or weak Ninas. Not sure if the Nina threshold. Regardless, there are other factors. Last year was almost a carbon copy of the 2014-2015 Enso conditions. Just a little bit different though in the outcome.

Not so sure it is lol

LOL, i was thinking M is A F I for some reason

LOL, I’m afraid to ask

We will figure it all out once we’ve created 30-40 more 3 letter acronyms for weather.

New thread guys. Good luck

2012-2013 wasn’t half bad here. Good around Christmas and then a really good March, over 20 that month

What I’m saying is look where the mean had it at day 10 and compare that to where it actually was. Pretty good imo. And when you say it was heading into you are basically extrapolating it out to days 20+

Your looking at that mean curve, skewed obviously by outliers. Not unexpected past day 10. Fine let’s look at its 10 day forecast.

Considering that that was a forecast for Jan 15, that yesterday was Jan 16, and the MJO position was this .... I’d say it worked out pretty damn good And yes if you follow the mean curve it didn’t die and curve, but the general movement for a 15 day forecast was great.

Would need to see before 1950 to make conclusions.

But it’s such a consistent model?

I’d say because that low is so close. Move it East by 50 miles different story

I agree. With a good pattern upstream we can get lucky even if the Atlantic is bad.

Each day it makes it closer to 8 before it starts to try and loop. Get it all the way in 8 and then loop back through 7 probably would be ok.

Yeah I agree. Get some snow cover and it can get as cold and dry as it wants

Low position keeps improving on gefs for Saturday.

Not out yet on PSU but I can’t wait to see the low positions on the gefs

Truly am pretty busy though. Seriously, any gefs output available yet?

LOL, c’mon guys. I was throwing shade on people who were downplaying this storm waiting on a better one. No way we should ever look pst a threat especially the type that is as reliable as anything we have for delivering winter weather.