You aren’t looking at all of it. The 3k soundings are below freezing all the way down. The 12k is barely above around 800. It’s wet. I’ll take my chances.
And don’t forget that it’s the NAM. The model that gave us 3-4” a couple of weeks ago and it rained.
I’m thinking the first wave is gonna produce above expectations. As for the second, who really knows at this point. Maybe it undergoes the normal last 24 north shift