jculligan

Just drove up from the valley. 40F and rain in Jackson Village. 35F and snowing at my place. With diabatic cooling processes, I'm thinking we'll slip down to 32/33 pretty quickly now. Here we go.

Precipitation beginning to pick up a bit, but it's still rain for now. 36/33. I think the steadier stuff moves in around 10am so hopefully we flip in another hour or so.

Started as rain here. 37/33 right now.

Sign me up for the 12z NAM please!! Absolute crush job as the CCB buries itself into the eastern slope and rots in place over the course of tomorrow night. With wind and falling temps that's an all-out blizzard here. Probably overdone, but one can dream.

Yeah the backcountry is "thin" to say the least, and while this storm will be good I don't think it'll be enough for me to be comfortable getting out there. Too many sharks in the water, and I'm definitely not looking to injure myself on the first time out when I will likely be skiing for the next 5-6 months ha. I would definitely anticipate wind issues on Sunday, so if you can bag work on Monday that's probably the better bet. Plus they'll have the guns blasting all day Sunday/Sunday night so it's likely you'll have more open terrain on Monday anyway.

Depends how high you're looking to get! I anticipate a steady 50+ mph above treeline for basically the entire day Sunday. MWN will likely gust 100+ as it often does following these events. Below treeline it'll obviously be much more tame, but I still anticipate many locations gusting 30-40 mph throughout the day...with temps in the 20s and on/off snow showers. Definitely a wintry day.

I agree, I think we're sitting in a good position for this one. I do think the valley will struggle with efficient accumulation rates during the daytime tomorrow - I can envision temps hovering around 33/34F with a non-accumulating wet snow in North Conway for a good portion of the day, but up here at 1500' I think I'll be ok. The good stuff doesn't appear to move in until right around dusk, so the combination of nightfall plus an increase in rates due to the heavier band rotating in will probably allow all elevations to crash to 32F with a good thump that'll last well into the evening. In my opinion, the real show will be from about 4pm until 10pm-11pm or so. Psyched for my first real event in my new location!! I'm as much a ski weenie as I am a wx weenie, and my bread and butter is truly backcountry skiing...so I'm excited that this will be a nice dense snow to establish a good base for future riding. I'm sure there will be folks that attempt to ski the Cog on Sunday, and tempting as it may be...I have no interest in risking injury when we have such a long BC season up here. Last season I skied Hillman's Highway (Mount Washington) on June 15th so there's plenty of time, though I am so ready lol.

Not if the gfs has anything to say about it. The upslope signature Saturday night is outrageous for northern NH on the latest run. You definitely are not in the synoptic jackpot, but it almost looks like there's a double QPF max - one from southeastern NH up through adjacent southwestern ME, and another squarely over the upslope regions on the northern/western slopes of the Whites. I lose in this scenario (in a relative sense). Still a good 36 hours to go, but I honestly feel pretty good about where we are sitting with this one. Models will continue to fluctuate from one run to the next, but I don't think it's very likely that we miss out on our first real event of the season.

We snow

It was the first event from 5-7 December 2003. I forgot there was a second! I was an undergrad at Plymouth State that month, and I think we got 10" and 12" from both events before it all washed away in a Grinch storm before Christmas.

December 2003 comes to mind as a storm that may have pummeled this area. That storm delivered 52" to Pinkham Notch, which is less than 10 miles from here as the crow flies. Of course that was a storm that featured insane mesoscale banding, so there were likely some pretty extreme spatial differences that could have cut totals here in half.

This morning's Euro run has me thinking about historical extreme snowfalls in my area. Not sure if others have used https://xmacis.rcc-acic.org before, but this is my go-to website for climo stuff. It has hundreds of sites throughout the area, but it can be difficult to find some that have lengthy and/or continuous periods of record. In any event, I was able to find an observation spot in North Conway that dates back to 1974. Unfortunately, this is about 1000' lower than my location but these are the top 10 snowfalls in the valley since the mid '70s:

Just started here as well. 33 degrees with flakes flying.

Widespread 20-30" lol.

Crazy variability across the models in terms of this weekend's event. I've been thinking the Euro is over-amped, and it appears to be trending closer to the GFS/Canadian solution on the 06z run. Regardless of any model solution at the moment, I have a feeling many of us will have a net gain in snowcover by the time the event is over on Sunday (if nothing else, based on climo alone) - but it may be a bumpy/messy way of getting there for some. The 06z GFS/NAM pretty much suggest a miss, but I think the answer likely lies somewhere between that and the over-aggressive Euro solution. Still a lot of time to watch it.

I have to believe the Euro is too wound up with its inland solution, but man...what a crush job for the Catskills/Dacks. The GFS/Canadian are showing a really nice event for most of us. At this point, I just want to log my first inch so the bar has been set pretty low lol.

Ended up with a total of 3.33 inches. There is a brook flowing behind my cabin which has not had running water since I moved here in August. Definitely a big precip event in these parts! The overnight low was 56F which is equally impressive for December 1st, though that will not end up being the low for the calendar day. Hopefully we've reached the low point of this wretched pattern now. The Euro has nothing, but both the Canadian and (to some extent) the gfs are suggesting some kind of event this coming weekend with more cold air to work with. The pattern heading into next week looks much better.

Up to 3.03" on the day. 55/54 currently. Impressed.

Flash flood warning issued with the expectation of another 1-2" of rain. I'm measuring 2.42" now. Up to 54 degrees.

Up to 2.30" and still pouring out. Easily my biggest calendar day rainfall since moving here at the beginning of August.

Classic southeasterly upslope rain event ongoing at the moment. Up to 1.30" in the bucket and climbing quickly. Wind hasn't been crazy as of yet.

Just drove from North Conway to my place in Jackson. It's still 35F down in the valley, but we've spiked to 45F and it's getting gusty. Could be in for a wild evening up here. 0.44" in the bucket so far.

I'd rather be tracking a snowstorm, but Monday night could be exciting from a wind perspective. Euro is showing some impressive gusts, especially to the lee of the Green and White Mountains. It could be absolutely raging in the notches for a few hours. Tougher call in my area, as we will once again be dealing with in situ CAD...but being 1000' off the valley floor could help my immediate location.

This is an incredibly shallow cold layer. 34F at my place (1500') but some of the thermometers down in the valley are still at 32F. Curious if there's any glazing going on down there.

The temp had nudged up to 33 when I went to bed last night and it's 34 now. No glazing here.