Doc Jon

Can, anyone comment on that most recent recon data?

Mitch hit a fairly populated coast compared with where Eta's going - there's nothing on the Mosquito coast but snakes, crocks and Dengue fever. Amazing tarpon fishing but that's beside the point. Unfortunately, however, Eta has apparently set its sights on the one population center in the entire region. There are about 60-70,000 people right in the target area.

yep. This is the year of Murphy's Law squared. This year, if it might, kinda, sorta, barely, potentially possibly go wrong... it WILL!!!...

2020

the moon?

888/180

yep, the mosquito coast is pretty empty - excellent tarpon fishing, but otherwise there's not much there other than swamps, snakes and crocodiles.

view from Bourbon Street: https://www.earthcam.com/usa/louisiana/neworleans/bourbonstreet/?cam=catsmeow2

Hey, anyone know what kind of multiplier to add to the winds when they're howling through the concrete canyons of a city - e.g. the wind tunnel effect?

surge forecast raised to 11-foot along MS coast.

surge coming over the seawall in Grand Isle.

2 1/2 foot surge in Gulf Port.

grand isle beach webcam: https://irgir.click2stream.com

wow, small world. I got my Ph.D. from Penn. Lived in West Philly and Center City for three years. Terrible situation you have out there - was watching a stream last night. Stay safe!

However, don't forget that this IS 2020 - the year of highly improbable events. Who would've guessed that two hurricanes would hit almost the same spot this year or that we'd have run out of names by now, or that (I'm from Boulder, Colorado so I have to throw this one out there) a wildfire would've burned through 100,000+ acres in a day, or that an amped-up cold virus would've shut down the country? This is the year of Murphy's Law and who knows how those levees were actually put together - not what was on the specs but what was actually done or what those levees are actually capable of holding back. Given this year though, if there's ANY possibility of them failing - they'll fail.

yeah, but unlike Sally, this one's hauling a$$. Lighting's kicking up again.

responding to all those "well, it's all over" posts, and to quote the great agrarian philosopher and noted Son of the Soil Ron White" "It's not THAT the wind is blowing, it's WHAT the wind is blowing. If you get hit by a Volvo, it doesn't matter how many push ups you can do."

got lightning popping off in the core.

who was it talking about a notch in the core overcast symmetry being a sign of RI back on the Laura thread? I ask because one just showed up in the last few frames.

well, the core's a sloppy mess but it looks to have survived intact and the winfield has expanded considerably. If the shear stays away there should be enough hot water and moist air to kick this storm into gear fairly quickly - although this IS 2020 sooo....

merde, check out those cloud tops! Frigid!

well, it's gotta hit somewhere and there aren't any completely unpopulated places along it's route. Where would you have it hit - within the cone, that is, this thing is obviously not going to hit Antarctica?

wow those are some cold cloud tops!

I noticed that too. Lightning's been almost nonexistent 'till the last half hour or so and now the eyewall's flashing like a bad strip club.

this was the case with Laura too.