IronTy

Was KLWX upgraded recently?  On radarscope it definitely appears to have higher resolution than it used to.   Higher than KAKQ.  

What a rainstorm.  20yrs ago....what coulda been....

5 hours ago, Terpeast said:

As a rule of thumb, if I don’t see cold/BN temperatures in all of the last 3 days within my apple weather app, we’re not seeing cold anytime soon. 

Following this ^^ rule would have been much more accurate than models. 

I've posted on here in previous years and people weenie me but....my Weatherbug app is consistently more accurate than whatever the models are showing for the 10-day forecast for my house when it comes to predicting (lack of) cold. .I know these apps just somehow automatically take in model data, but whatever they use and however they massage it is definitely more accurate than reading the GFS or Euro verbatim in the 10-day range.  

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

He was being optimistic. Nothing wrong with that. I think back then with the advancements happening at that time in models and supercomputing it was fair to think it was possible but truth is after a significant leap in the 2000s we did hit a sort of leveling point where our scientific advancements bumped up against the chaos we can’t account for.  Maybe he underestimated that chaos  

 

We used to play golf on the moon 50yrs ago but nowadays our unmanned probes just tip over when they land.  In the heady days of 2002 it was easy to believe computers in the 2020s we're going to be more HAL-9000 than tik-tok and Robinhood.  Predictions are hard, especially about the future.  

6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

IF there were to be a weird late season event, this would be the pattern needed to get it done

Is that the Sistene Chapel pattern?  

16 hours ago, Terpeast said:

It absolutely can. 2022-23 is looking like a decent analog match. Nothing is off the table 

No way.  Last winter was obvious it was not going to snow so expectations were low and the winter delivered on that.

This winter was hyped up to no end even up til just a week or two ago and all I got was one storm that put down 1.5" and another that literally accumulated and melted all during my morning time on the toilet.  

5 hours ago, Ji said:

I think people are being too lazy with regards to next year winter outlook. I bet it’s way snowier than we think . Study Nina’s after ninos

It can't be any worse than this winter was.  So at least there's that.  

3 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Guaranteed cold.

Don't be so facetious.  It did get below freezing for a few overnight lows this season...a few.  

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

the biggest weenie on twitter....Mark Markgarbage just forecasted zero inches of snow for south of Maryland border next winter

The Maryland border would be a weird demarcation line to try to predict snow off.  Just for the stupidity of that boundary he should be discounted.  

18 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol Now see two years was my first thought too, but I was trying to leave room for the off chance the Nina won't double-dip...but I mean don't they all do that these days?

Everybody seems to be really be piling into the idea that the next couple winters are going to be pretty crappy.  Given the (in)accuracy of the LR thread and people predicting epic cold as of late I would take this as a positive sign that we will surprise to the upside next winter.  

When JB finally throws in the towel and issues a blowtorch forecast for next winter then we can be assured of Nina snows.  And maybe that one really handsome twitter Met too.  He wasn't much use either.  

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

All the professional Mets will agree that's a classic Sistene Chapel look.  Spray all your snow shovels with Pam to get ready for it.  

1 hour ago, MountainGeek said:

I suppose it is better than drugs and giant tomato worms.....

I thought I heard the bat siren going off....you rang?

It's a verifiable fact that March is the worst month of the year around here.  Bright sunshine but cold temps with that seemingly never ending biting wind.  And then there are the days where DC is warm and 70F but it's 50F and overcast here next to the bay with an onshore breeze.

12 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The latest Weeklies get the patten workable by the week of the 11th to the 18th.

The pattern on the Weeklies then continues to look workable through the end of March.

Username checks out.  

37 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

We are nearing retirement and want a big yard after living in a packed development for decades.  My wife is pushing for lower southern MD where my parents and sibs are and where property is cheaper.  10 or 15 years ago that would have scared the heck outta me having grown up in Calvert.  Now though?  Nah, what's the difference living SE of the "new Richmond" compared to NW.  

Might as well move back to Calvert.  We.dont get any snow anymore so just go in expecting that and it's all good.  Just take up winter kayaking and there are all sorts of outdoor activities all winter long.  

1 hour ago, RevWarReenactor said:

There is another window in Mid to late March.

Its coming guys. Epic pattern change. Just need patience.

 

It was too warm for a snowstorm in mid-February, but don't worry...it'll definitely be cold enough in the second half of March!  

24 minutes ago, paulythegun said:

We’re really giving up on this?

Is that the start of the Sistene Chapel pattern?

Well that storm sucked.  My ruler only goes down to 1/16" gradients so I can't measure the total here.  

57 minutes ago, Wxdood said:

January... 3 and a half weeks ago.

Not for us down south. 

JFC this hobby is for masochists around here.  When was the last time we had a non-stressful setup where we got snow?  I have in and charged up the muck truck...just as the trend drifted northwards.  

1 minute ago, T. August said:

My strategy is to set an alarm for 2:00AM. That way I don’t have to stress about first flakes, and it will be ripping.

At 43yo typically my first pee break of the night is 2am so I have a natural alarm clock.

Should I mount the blade in the muck truck now or will that jinx it?

18Z GFS Snowmaps....

Sent from my Pixel 8 Pro using Tapatalk

Just now, DarkSharkWX said:

That's not the worst case, that's the best case

Just now, Ji said:

Inexcusable

Weenie screen refreshes overloading the server 

6 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

So when do we kill this thread for the new one so we can get to double digits?

You can only kill it on a model rug pull when we're in a cycle of despair.  We're not there yet.