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csnavywx

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Everything posted by csnavywx

  1. csnavywx
    Yeah, you're right about that. It was below normal, but I would've figured it ended up colder with all of the cloud cover we had. July 2013 and July 2016 look similarly cold on NCAR, but with different spatial patterns:
  2. csnavywx
    Yeah, really goes to show how important future wintertime temps will be in determining when we go ice-free. Last winter was so atrocious that even a good summer pattern had a hard time saving it.
  3. csnavywx
    Not that I know of. Not sure it would do much good, because MOST of the current "deal" is nothing but brackets. Any country can dispute any part of the text for any reason by requesting to put brackets around it.
  4. csnavywx
    Yeah, and this is the bracketed piece of crap the negotiators have produced so far: http://unfccc.int/files/bodies/awg/application/pdf/draft_paris_outcome_rev_5dec15.pdf It's better than Copenhagen, but that's not saying much. 1 week left. Not sure how they're going to come up with an agreement with any real teeth.
  5. csnavywx
    That'd work for me. Might even get that money back in the long run through reduced pushback to interventionist foreign policy. Combo it with a fee and dividend plan and let the market boost it too. As bad as that leak is, it's a drop in the bucket compared to the 20 million barrels per day of oil we burn currently.
  6. csnavywx
    There are significant stores of hydrates on the ESAS that are at depths less than 300m, including a few as shallow as 20m due to the "self-preservation" effect (metastability). This self-preservation effect is well known in the oil patch. Whether the hydrates there exhibit more of a chronic release or are susceptible to short-term bulk releases is a subject of debate. More evidence exists for chronic release in the paleo-record, but we also haven't had a precedent in the distant past where the Gas Hydrate Stability Zone (GHSZ) could be so close to the surface (due to very cold Arctic water temps) and be subject to rapid warming. During the PETM, such hydrates would have had to exist at great depths and the subsequent changes in temperature in the GHSZ would've been very slow.
  7. csnavywx
    Extremely prominent occlusion process going on with the killer cell that just passed over into Georgia.
  8. csnavywx
    Central IN seems like a good area.
  9. csnavywx
    So, who's up for chasing this sucker tomorrow?
  10. csnavywx
    It's a nice severe sounding, but all crosswise vorticity suggests little tornado threat. I would be mainly worried about wind and some hail.
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