40westwx

If you look at the quintessential flatten the curve graphic.. there is one down side to flattening the curve.. and that is that it is a slower decline on the other side. No one brings this up.. but it is math.. and it is true... the benefit that you get from flattening the curve is that you theoretically could reduce the number of deaths due to limiting the strain on healthcare infrastructure. But you cannot reduce the total number of cases.. nature can only dictate that. So in other words.. the area in the blue is equal to the area in the red. We would most likely experience a much slower decline in cases than we would have theoretically experience if we did the riskier "without proactive measures" approach. You actually see that play out in South Korea and China where they instituted social distancing after they peaked...

I think we are in for several days of increasing death numbers.. if the graph above is indicative of a decline in new cases.. then deaths will decrease about 5-7 days after

Regardless of any discussion or debate on what the numbers actually mean.. I think we may have gotten over the hump.. US.. Daily Cases

The selective censorship thing (not just here but everywhere) used to absolutely enrage me.. but then I realized two very important things.. 1- it is their media.. not yours... and they have the right chose what they want to show... so you just have to live with it. 2- when someone censors you, it is a form of trolling in of itself. When you let it bother you.. they win On a much larger note... when platforms like youtube and twitter select and censor their content, they abandon the principles that their platform have been built on and ultimately put it in jeopardy.. the effort taken by these organizations to force content to conform with their organizational values is astounding. I can only imagine how many employees and how many algorithms that they have written to support this futile effort. I can understand if someone uploads a video of someone getting killed and they want to take that down.. thats fine.. but if some wack job claims that covid-19 is caused by 5G towers and as a result, someone sets a cell phone tower on fire.. and youtube feels it should censor future content like that.. then they are taking it one step too far... and are taking too much credit. Another more benign example lets say #theconstitutionisnotoptional goes viral on twitter.. and this result in a group of covid deniers protesting.. if twitter censors that because they believe a protest puts lives in jeopardy (due to social distancing violations) then you can see how this raises all sort of questions.. and actually adds fuel to the fire. But again.. it is not your platform.. it is theirs.. and they can censor whatever they want.

One of the things about Sweden being the defacto control group is that we actually have control groups all over the planet.. one of the things that we forget is that there are massive population centers throughout the world where people violate the constructs of social distancing and proper hygiene by merely existing.

I know.. sorry.. it was just me thinking out loud.. I get the joke! I actually have a really good attitude about all of this all.. can we do a contest on this.. or would that be a little too much? Maybe a contest on the exit strategy?

Wow.. Sweden is really dedicated to being the world's "control" group. You probably argue China was a control group too since they didnt close schools until after their peek.

Is "herd immunity" a bad word or something.. I mentioned it to my coworkers and they said I was as bad as an antivaxer.. and now I feel like said something wrong.

once you have a reliable antibody test it doesnt take much of cross section to figure how many people in the population are immune.. you have to remember the entire argument for social distancing is the "lessen the blow". If you test 1% of the population randomly and find 80% of has already reached immunity.. then social distancing no longer applies.. we already won. The funny thing is that having the anitbody test would probably lead to lifting lockdown measures in places like NYC first because the clearly have already spread the virus around its population sufficiently to produce the immune response.

Didn't china employ an antibody test early in the game?

Agree.. the number are not accurate... there is probably some multiplier.. but when you multiple that number by zero new case.. you still get zero. That being said, can we agree that the Pandemic more or less ended in China in mid to late February (the same time that they closed schools)?

Maybe the China numbers are real (or at least indicative of ground truth).. this is comes from a scientific article and shows how pandemics more or less "eradicate themselves" over a period of 45-90 days. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340325643_The_first_three_months_of_the_COVID-19_epidemic_Epidemiological_evidence_for_two_separate_strains_of_SARS-CoV-2_viruses_spreading_and_implications_for_prevention_strategies Give the graph above, and the associated article, it appears that pandemic respiratory illness will more or less "disappear" after roughly 80% of the population becomes immune and that the natural curve will not (but more importantly should not) be flattened.

yes.. I have seen various studies that talk about humidity.. so that would be a direct environmental action against the virus verses what is more or less a "social distancing" argument in that when people spend more times outdoors, viruses do not spread as much. I think this should be looked at in greater detail.. which one is it? Maybe a mix of both.. our forum and our collective minds offer a great platform to discuss and shed light on questions like this..

100% agree.. CCP is in control of what goes out.. and they direct the narrative. One of my biggest questions that I have had all along was "How did China more or less eradicate the virus"? If you look at the daily numbers, they literally fell off the map in mid February: However, if you look at the timeline of what happened and how this all played out, there is actually a much more plausible and realistic explanation of what is going on there. China began its tight lockdown measures in early February, and they didn't fully close all of the schools until a week or two later. If you look at the graph above, the number of daily cases peaked in mid January. I think we can all agree the one day 15K number is simply a cluster in reporting (probably a lag somewhere in the system). Therefore, it is fairly safe to assume that China's historic quarantine was enacted after the virus ran its course. If this is true.. what can be learned from this?

Questions.. why does the flu oscillate with the weather.. is the "we spend more time outdoors" theory, the only reason or are there other factors at play? And to tie this in to COVID-19, will we see this fluctuate with the warm weather? If COVID-19 does fluctuate with the seasons (which remains to be seen), how does this winter's warmth play in to the onset and spread of COVID-19 in the US and other regions that had an abnormally warm winter?

yikes! Thats actually fairly significant if 5% of the nations meet supply gets impacted. Naturally we will see an increase in prices, perhaps a significant increase.

I guess one good thing about the pandemic is that open container laws have gone to the waste side... lots of folks in fells point yesterday enjoying beers and crushes with their carryout on the sidewalks outside of #Kooperstavern and other pubs... it was a neat site to see.. kids playing in the square.. people drinking and enjoying themselves.. there was even a guy with an acoustic guitar :) singing. Of course every one was social distancing themselves properly.