MN Transplant

10.9 for the low. Snowpack stopped compacting. Same 6.5” as yesterday.

The sidewalks are a disaster. My neighborhood has always been good about clearing them, but this storm was a complete breakdown. Kids walking to sledding locations have been walking in the streets. No way was school ever opening.

mPING report of snow and weak radar returns around Chesapeake Beach

Sunday is going to be nasty with temps in the teens for much of the day and wind gusts at least into the 30s.

The NAM 3km is doing pretty well IMBY, but isn't cold enough in the low-lying areas. The HRRR is the inverse. The globals are having all sorts of problems. The fundamental answer is that the models just have so much trouble handling the very stable winter boundary layer and how much mixing there is.

I'm just guessing here, but I would think that we are looking at two things: 1) Confirmation bias. Unless there is an actual study showing that this is true, it may just be the snow weenie in all of us that remembers these types of changes. 2) But if the anecdotal theory is actually true, it might be that the patterns that result in an H5 feature going through the deep south may simply be more predictable due to the strength of the blocking required to make that pattern happen.

The fundamental problem with the lows is that the airmass is potentially historic in length, but not severity. So, we are getting very cold in the favored spots, but overall it isn't just enough of a cold airmass to challenge some of the more fun numbers for many of us.

Boxing Day was worse because it was hitting up north too.

I'm not giving this one a lot of my energy. Glad I'm not forecasting for NC/Richmond/Norfolk!

Even though it is a whiff, you have to admire a 500 low track of Minneapolis to St Louis to Atlanta on the RDPS. That's a unique one.

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/2000/us0125.php

I'd be more inclined to think there is a N shift late if we had already started a trend in that direction. But we aren't seeing that. GFS, GFSAI and AIFS are rock solid for a 500 pass through SC. The Euro and GDPS dipped even further to Savannah.

3” QPF all snow around Salisbury. Fantastic.

What a gorgeous 500 pass for Richmond

If you want a perfect representation of microclimate and cold-air drainage, check out Manassas this morning. The airport sits at a low point, only 50-100' below the surroundings, but enough to perfectly bottom out in calm conditions.