MN Transplant

0.04” is better than nothing, but not by much

DCA has joined the other airports at hitting at least 96. It'll be interesting to see if any of those cells can make it east. The leading showers are dying after they get to about IAD.

Add one to each of those numbers for the highs thusfar. 94.6 at home.

Low 90s over mid 60s in most places right now. Warm.

It isn’t going to happen, but the Euro and HRRR have DC at 100 on Tuesday.

You nailed it. Crossing into the mid-60s DPs at this time of year is very noticeable.

The 00z Euro kept things south and the 06z GFS depends a lot on the Wed/Thus wave with light precip beyond that. It isn't what we want, but it also isn't set in stone.

Good hit along 95. Every bit helps.

This is a good example of the polarimetric radar being important. If you look at the reflectivity over my house you’d think that it was pouring. The high differential reflectivity and low differential phase indicates that there are large, but relatively few big drops. So, despite a radar that looks like below, I’ve had 0.07” so far in this batch.

Pretty nice line. Hope it holds for the rest of us.

Almost certain that it is. But implementing it is a different beast. Various academic institutions have the run the WRF real-time, but even that is difficult to keep up without dedicated staff.

https://bsky.app/profile/akrherz.bsky.social/post/3mlompdfmvk2f

The radar QPE algorithm is having a terrible time with this event. I’m sitting at 0.23” and DCA is 0.21” and the radar estimate is ~0.7”.

I hear thunder. At least that’s a step in the right direction.

30-yr average at DCA is 10.65" for M-A-M. Lowest recently was 6.49" in 2023. 1986 is the modern times dud at 3.47". Most of the region is in the 4-7" range since March 1st, but DC to Annapolis and south are in worse shape. DCA is sitting at 3.72" and there are even spots in Calvert County and across the Bay that are ~2". There has not been a sub-6" Spring since 2006, so we are in rare territory if we don't get some substantial rain in the next 3 weeks.