Leesville Wx Hawk

Nice post. The end of the Ensemble means began to show signs of a + PNA with some blocking getting a little more robust near Greenland. Hopefully we are finally on to something. .

18z GFS even further west with trough and is responding to the building negative NAO that you mentioned. .

We sure do. Let’s see how it trends? My guess is that it won’t move much further. Canadian Ensemble mean showing extended GOA to Baja ridge which isn’t a terrible look with Greenland blocking. It’s a crap shoot right now LOL. .

Hard to dig the trough far enough westward in this set up. GFS ensembles did cave to EPS but it’s still not enough for our region. Need Nina to get beat down soon to have a shot. It has been taking it’s time warming up. .

According to JB, this is just natural and has nothing to do with increased CO2 and other greenhouse gases. I don’t buy that at all. We have increased from 370 to 420 ppm CO2 in the past 25 years. This can not be a coincidence. .

I see it GaWx. A whole lot would have to come together in that scenario but at least it’s something to watch. .

I was seeing hints of a -EPO. It’s better than nothing and can work. .

It’s bad y’all but it’s good that’s it’s happening now than say 3-4 weeks from now. It will get better soon. Gonna have to wait about a week or two. .

I think you’re right about this North Hills. Not seeing anything definitive to indicate blocking and we definitely don’t have a good western ridge. We will have to be patient. Perhaps we will start to see things turn around on by late December as negative height anomalies begin to wane in the eastern Pacific and positive heights begin to build east of Greenland and possibly push west. .

Appreciate the feedback BooneWX! .

I wonder what that is translating to? You would think ratios would be pretty solid even with it being off sound considering air temps should be upper 20’s or so. .

I saw that earlier. If I remember there was a 1039 mb High near Maine with a surface low forming off our coast. Hard to believe we could have that occur with only the telecommunication in our favor would be NAO possibly. And, that orientation doesn’t look like an ideal blocking scenario. Need a few cutters to have a shot with the pacific raging. .

There’s no long range hope until at least 5-7 days. We needed a warm up so that fun times can start again in January during the peak of the season. .

It was obvious when they were showing live shots last night. Raleigh proper and points SE have been in a rip off zone relative to RDU/ north for a good while so good for them. This sort of reminds me on a lesser scale of the Christmas night 2010ish storm (albeit completely different synoptic situation) where Raleigh proper scored big versus RDU/Bull City. .

This is perfect and definitely shows what occurred. We have seen this type of backside enhancement before and it was being shown on the NAM 3k. Appreciate this SUNY. .