ADB83

14% chance in Greensboro is pretty wild. I’ve seen nothing to indicate that is even remotely a double digit possibility. But they are the professionals. Really interesting to watch them take the same data that we all have and assimilate it .

Piedmont Triad sitting 50 miles from glory. I don’t hate it. Or just give me literally what the Euro shows and I won’t hate that either .

The new king WN 2.0 also has a 2/5 threat next week. This is fun .

HRRR much less dry at 18z .

Count me as also confused at what Raleigh is looking at, but I did look, and it does look like recent information. They’re the professionals .

12z WN2. This model seems pretty locked in on a version of this solution plus or minus a few inches to the far east .

The ratios are different. You need to use Kuchera for this storm .

If I’ve got to hug one model and ignore the others I don’t mind it being the Euro. .

This is a tough forecast. Winter in the Carolinas and GA is elite level difficulty for mets .

If this goes the way, it looks like it might. I’m gonna have to stop equal weighting the GFS with the other globals. It might be time to admit that it’s lesser tier and to stop considering it on the same level. .

Lower outputs today. Objectively for most. If you’re far enough west and south or far enough east you’re probably feeling good. Everyone else is rightfully nervous. I also don’t have a good feeling at the moment .

This is a very fine line. A slight adjustment is boom territory or not so boom. I’d take the median and be thrilled .

Not weenie numbers but I would take it right this second .

Because two runs ago the only people getting snow were potentially Bermuda .

It’s a big flip from what it was doing a couple of runs ago. I can’t speak for the too distant past, but I know it did well last storm. .