greenmtnwx

2/14/07 redux?

1 hour ago, BuildingScienceWx said:

It's pretty sad at this point. We're on a side road near the top of Dover Hill Road. We were there for Xmas week and saw our measly 4" bullet proof pack slowly melt away. I'd expect 30"+ by this time up there.

Agree 

2 minutes ago, BuildingScienceWx said:

Storm Total: 9.1"

Great overperformer. 

Incredible to believe, but I've received 12.1" YTD here in CT and 12.9" at my place in West Dover, VT at 2300'. 

Similar story here in Monmouth County NJ to my place at 1800 in Wardsboro. You are right down the road from me. 2,300 ft great elevation, where you up at Boulder Ridge on 100?

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Green mountain, QgOmega, eduugs, and Pope Benedict for the loss.  Hit the showers boys..

Ehhh I’d say it’s a draw or at best split decision. Western/amped was wrong, but eastern areas got the banding and overperformed. Onto the next one soon. 

Problem is that the transfer skips the metro area. So we are left with decaying snow to the west and redeveloping low too  far east. Doughnut hole. 

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

this could easily jump more nw tonight 

deep analysis.

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I don't see a reason to forecast 2-3" here right now. Maybe well northwest closer to your hood is mostly out of the heavy snow but further east should not be punting this event. I still think even pretty far NW could get a decent band when looking aloft.

I'll actually just ride this one out at the homestead in Monmouth County NJ although not looking good here either. Contemplated VT but that fell apart.

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Why are people basically doing postmortems 42-48 hours before the event where small differences could mean the difference between 2-3" and 6-10"?

Don't do it Will. Don't go DIT on us now. I know it's been a tough season but writing's on the wall. Live to fight another day.

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Do you mean what some of the experience meteorologist were saying yesterday that you were pooh-poohing?  Sorry.

I’ve been listening to them all along and it looks like this scenario they talked about it while we’re headed to. Are you don’t give up until Will give it up lol, Even though my best case scenario is probably 4 to 6

I wouldn’t say poo-pooing what is currently evolving. This is still offshore and not up the canal like those thoughts were the other day. But it’s still salvageable. 

Couple thoughts. SREFS were way to far amped down in NJ/NYC early this week so you want them as far west as possible. I’d say shave 75 miles off the NW flank. 

Also haven’t we had a few systems in recent years where we do this multiple low dance, lows popping NE of the main energy only to have within the last 24-48 hours the initial low/energy become the dominant one tucked right into the coast? Seems like that’s what we are seeing and could lend credence to the idea that we may just end up with one consolidated low on modeling within the next few cycles that rides from just off SNJ coast to inside the benchmark or tighter?

Just brutal. 

Nam coming in less amped this far. Not a great looking start. 

16 minutes ago, weathafella said:

A shitty and good model 2, 2 shitty models 2.  Euro weighs in in 2 hours to lean one way or the other.

Been an ugly 36 hours 

Just now, eduggs said:

We'll happily take our 2-6" with decent ratios, but that NAM run is not what most are looking for. Also no sign of the kind of trend we're looking for.

Flatter, less wave spacing, later developing, and SLP further offshore.

Bingo.

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

Maybe some were fooled by the earlier arrival? The 18z looked pretty clearly less impressive aloft to me.

Hence my tough early-season induced snow goggle comments. It is worse and has been trending that way from west to east the last day and a half. But we are all desperate, even the pros. 

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'd like for you to define that. Is that because we are using our experience to say how it could come more west and that is being misunderstood as someone with weenie glasses on? I think we all acknowledged why guidance is doing what it has shown for 12z solutions. 

It's a weather forum where we are talking out loud about possible outcomes. If you put a gun to my head, I'd be more leery of my earlier thoughts, but I guess I'm not sure why you said what you said. 

See above to 40/70. Don’t you mets go weenie on us lol.

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hey, if you ever honestly feel I am doing that, then I appreciate the critique. No offense taken.

Ehh, usually not at all. The last couple weeks maybe it’s crept in a little bit as far as the overall pattern and this system for Friday. A little bit defiant in view of the data. Hey it’s human nature. The patterns been a meat grinder, which would lend some strong credence to this one being East and strung out too. Not that you or Will have to back away from it, but the persistent optimism might be a little whiff of weenie lol. Just an observation. Tough YTD.

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Would you be extending that to the other very experienced New England meteorologists who are also on the side of something closer more tucked, more significant etc.?  or are you just saying that to a guy who is educated and informed but doesn’t do this for a living?

As in Will? No I’d extend him more courtesy, brilliant meteorologist. Although if you pinched me hard enough I’d say this awful start has us all a little off our game and with a little snow-colored glasses on, even Darth Vader himself. Just human nature. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Drama In Tolland?

Listen if you dish it you take it a bit. It’s just a lesson in the idea that nothing has to be 100% or 0. There is a middle ground and sometimes you have to ebb with it. DIT talks in absolutes like things (weather) are already a given outcome, when they haven’t even occurred yet. Bad, dramatic look. I don’t want 40/70 going down that rathole. 

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You need to get out more and interact and not be socially inept like this. It’s simply not healthy 

Hah just busting chops DIT just like you do all the time. Drama can be your middle name you know. Take it in stride. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just made a first call 2 hours ago, and explicitly stated that I was nervous about it and hedging....how should I have conveyed to sound less arrogant?

I’m just saying, you can still run the ball. Pick up first downs, it’s early. No need to break from the game plan, yet. 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It has nothing to do with that. I'm not sure what that has to do with anything.

It just seems like you’ve gotten a little stubbornly arrogant about your calls even in the face of significantly changing data. Not usually your way, leave that to DIT. Steady as she goes, still early, no need for the Hail Mary. 

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm obviously nervous and can see how this can end up a nuisance...but more often than not, the wild convective goose changes end up more fact than fiction. Maybe it will work out like that this time....we should know in just under 24 hours, maybe even tonight.

Wavering? Don’t tell me the December call that went up in flames has you needing to push all your chips to the middle with pocket 6s? It’s still a little early, maybe just try to build your stack back up. 

Very ugly Euro run

2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

The EPS mean has steadily marched offshore since 06Z. It's very noticeable.

Extremely noticeable. This likely grazes