Its a Breeze

47 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

We definitely will. I don’t see these four ever changing. It was a good compromise of the simplification process. 

...or not. Thought I remembered this:

https://www.weather.gov/hazardsimplification/revampprogress

Looks like next year they're changing again. Removing "advisory" completely.

Perfect event for a 'Snow Advisory'

Why on Earth did they get rid of those?

52 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Are we actually on the precipice of a honest-to-god 2-4" run of the mill event? Did Lucy finally decide to let us kick the damn ball even if she deflated it so it didn't go very far??

Sent from my SM-S911U using Tapatalk
 

I can guarantee it's going to snow.

The coats on the deer that frequent my backyard are looking extra thick.

At this point - deer > EURO

25 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

This thread is back and forth. The emotions and model swings are taking its toll. I am afraid to see how the Euro does us in.

But like...why? When was the last time we saw snow on snow?

If the Monday/Tuesday and 20th event just bring an inch or two each, that's an absolute win....

21 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

DCA's ASOS is on the east (river) side of the runways.  It is not near the buildings.  Now, the snowfall measurement location is a completely different issue, but they seem to have fixed that in the past 5 years or so.

Did they change it after '16? When an observer went to DCA and had a completely different measurement (19.4", #3 all time) than the official amount?

Can confirm graupel with flurries mixed in

Hit 17, nice

BWI:  26.3"
DCA: 24"
IAD: 33.8"
RIC: 17"

SBY: 20.2"

'16ish as most (but not all) comes in one big shot...

32.7 this morning. Going to go ahead and round down, and count it as a freeze 

On 10/4/2023 at 8:51 PM, WxUSAF said:

So far I’d say October’s going to look nationwide more like the warm version on top than that frigid version on the bottom even if we have a chance at a BN month. 

On 10/4/2023 at 9:27 PM, Ji said:

Yep we got some work to do to get that blue lol

GFS says - say no more:

Just a FYSA for any chasers this year or next -

On 9/30/2023 at 6:52 PM, RodneyS said:

September 2023 at DCA came in above the 1991-2020 normal, at 73.4 degrees. 

Which is incredible. 5 days (3rd - 7th) were so above average, that it made the whole month above normal.

Had those days been 'normal', we would have been below average for the month.

In the Commander's loss, I'm comforted (not really) in the fact that, it was just about the only normal thing to happen this NFL week. Wow...

8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

WxWatcher007 Peak Season Forecast (Aug 20-Oct 20)
Named Storms: 13 (11)
Hurricanes: 6 (5)
Major Hurricanes: 3 (3)

Emily, Franklin (MH), Gert, Harold, Idalia (MH), Jose, Katia, Lee (MH), Margot (H), Nigel (H), Ophelia

Perfection is within your reach! Good stuff.

19 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Someone is gonna get demolished.

I mean, it'll be like an hour of moderate rain yeah, but demolished?

33 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

I’d put money on 1-2 inches area wide. But is the most exciting tropical since Isabel lol

Not sure about that. Irene I think will beat this one out.

9 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

So, for those who were here back then...does Ophelia fall just short of being as impactful as Isabel in 2003 in terms of rain or wind? Or not even close? I've seen a few historical charts that showed Isabel dropped 1"-3" in the metro area, but the winds (I think, or at least remember) definitely had in impact in the area.

It's definitely going to end up in the not even close category in terms of winds as Isabel had much stronger winds and much stronger winds over a wider area.

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

75kts FL, 60-65kts surface. Should be at 70mph probably now. Definitely think hitting a cane is not out of the question now. 

Don't know. She's a bit wild, exposing herself to all right now. She needs to get her life together a bit more before hitting rock/bottom of the outer banks...

20 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

It then proceeds to hang around combining with another system so it can continue to rain on us till the 5th. Though unlikely to be right I desperately hope its wrong, I can barely stay awake in school when its sunny out and if its cloudy all bets are off.

What?

Who doesn't like a week straight a raw wetness with a NE breeze?

Model agreement

I'm Ron Rivera's Washington Commanders. Late season runs that looks promising, but ultimately falls short 

Preliminary but - Ugh, heartbreak. Looks like BWI hit 100 shattered any slim chance I had....

Congrats @WxUSAF with the near perfect score

1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

Those ARE the temps you are looking for....

Yes, and it looks like RIC came through! Don't know when it's official, but I'm seeing 100 at 3:10. Now...don't go any higher please

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KRIC

Help me Richmond, you're my only hope...