Its a Breeze

I think we've, hopefully, learned our lesson by now. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me 16 times, shame on me.

5 minutes ago, paxpatriot said:

Not sure whether to be happy I'm in the "10%" range, or just depressed with everyone else. So many feels...

Well, it's going to change every 6 hours for the next 7 days, ultimately being a huge disappointment, so....depressed?

9 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

really?  seems like it was constantly warm...maybe just my perception

We've definitely been well above normal, but as jay said, no real torch. And cloudy and 60s have definitely outweighed any sunny and 60s.

29 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Almost time yall

To predict the next 70 degree day?

I'll have to look it up, but I'm pretty sure for DCA this has been the worse winter in terms of no warm temps to compensate for the no snow. Meaning all of our previous tremendously horrible winters, we've at least had a couple of 70 degree days to sort of assuage the anger.

DCA has had 1 such day since Nov. 12th. Cool enough to be annoying. Not cold enough to snow. Nothing worse.

Looks like we lost the JMA, can anyone confirm?

5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Not long ago New England was in the zone, now Jersey and NYC area looking a little better. As you say, won't take much to include you guys. Still so much uncertainty however.

There's a song in there somewhere.

About us being down this road before. Knowing exactly where it leads. And that's to nothing good. But we stay on it. Hoping this time will be different.

24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When was the last time a storm worked with a marginal domestic airmass with no cross polar arctic flow without it being an absolute qpf bomb like 2016?  I seriously can’t remember the last time DC got like 4” of snow from some wave that tracked south of them in a typical domestic airmass. I can list dozens from the past but can’t think of any in a long long time. 

Wouldn't last January count?

(but definitely agree though)

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Both feature a perfect longwave configuration. West based -NAO, 50/50, trough digging to our west and SS dominant. Probably won’t be cold enough but that’s another issue unrelated to the pattern.

Astronomical Spring?

For 50+ pages of that other thread there was so much hype of how perfect of a setup this weekend would be, only for it not to be. After countless 'nopes' I would love for our likely last real 10 day threat to actually work this time, but this season so far has to absolutely raise some sort of red flag. What is the confidence level that this time, it's real?

13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gfs performance with the storm Friday has been horrendous. Maybe the other models as well but geez.

Well, we won't know for sure until Friday

For the past few days though, it's variability hasn't really been all that different than any of the other models... (I looked at a week's worth of 0 and 12zs)

Congrats to all who may actually see pity flakes on Friday. #notbitteratall

18 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Waves 1&2 are officially now within 7 days

Yeah, but in terms of consistently showing significant snow it's currently, JMA vs the World.

Not sure I like those odds...

4 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Please let it warm up for good. Didn’t want to clutter the other thread but I’m done with winter

This time last year we were 80 degrees with an actual legit shot of accumulating snow by week's end, that actually verified. 70s again the following week.

That's how you do March, not this crap.

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I guess if we want to be optimists there could be an ever so slim zone where it’s possible to get a hit from both.  I think that would require wave 2 to slow down which was a trend on the Gfs. We would need more separation between the waves to pull off a double because wave 1 will need to be pretty darn amped and tucked for us to get any snow. 
 

 

Wave 1 has the issue we've been dealing with all season, and there's no indication this is an exception..

...lack of cold (enough) air.

So, do we use this thread to celebrate the death of La Nina? There's every indication we should be neutral by the end of this month (if we're not there already)

How long before we know what kind of Nino we're getting ourselves into? Summer? Fall?

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

There was April snow in 2014 as well. 

At least up this way. I was annoyed because my tulips had bloomed already lol

Pretty sure we had snow fall from the sky in 2015 and 2016 too, in April. Didn't amount to anything, but at least it fell.

Don't mind April snows. The picturesqueness is greater than in March, though we get more then...

24 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

We are still in the game right now 7 days out. Who would want to be in the bullseye right now? Not me. We have 2 days left before curtains or joy. 

I do! Not sure where that came from, the not wanting to be in the bullseye at this point.

Not being in the bullseye has been 100% correct so far. It's insane to wish the same.

^ 

None of this translates to shovelable snow...

I was promised 3 feet of snow by the CMC. I want my 3 feet! 

We're sitting here waiting for the GFS cave from a cool rainstorm to a cold rainstorm. Within this time frame, and not even just this year, when was the last time we saw significant improvements to something we actually want? Not just upper air, but surface?

55 minutes ago, jayyy said:

This is why I said last night that I’m pissed cmc showed a massive dead hit blizzard. Any OP run that shows otherwise will have people freaking out.

Wait. For. The. Ensembles. Fuckers.

We shouldn't be waiting for anything at this point...

In every thread, including the other MARCH long range thread, we've been pointed out to (and rightfully so) how the long range ensembles have been trash all season (Ops, with their cutters and bad solutions, have won in EVERY case the Ens have showed a favorable pattern) and not to hang on to them. At no point so far have they proven themselves to be any more reliable than the ops. Now, by some of those same people, we're told to trust them this time and get mad when people don't. Is that fair?

At this point, I trust the squirrels in my backyard more than any Ens or Op.

Also,

"ur analysis"

*snicker*

So....currently, 2 March 2023, 8:30PM UTC, we can see favorable conditions in the long range. But any legit storm threat is either just beyond the 10 day range, or simply not there. That's the current gist?

yay. excited.

20 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Superstorm 93 can be divisive around here because although it was an incredible event, it wasn't much for some peoples' yards in our area.  I lived in Calvert then and we got 6 inches then sleet, then rain and the temp spiked to 50.  Got a couple inches of back end snow later to freshen up the slush.  It was one hell of a gut punch seeing a raging blizzard in part of the deep south while I got wet snow to rain.  Ohhhh what could have been had there been a better antecedent air mass and a track farther east.  That one event had a lot of influence on me leaving southern MD once I was locked into DC for work.

I don't know about divisive, I think all can agree it was an amazing storm overall and truly the Storm of the Century. But yeah, in terms of snow for most in this area, it left more to be desired. I don't recall what was in the forecast for us, but I know I wanted more!

The winds with it were pretty cool around here....but was painful as you were sand blasted with sleet! The cold that followed the storm though, absolutely bone chilling.

In the words of the great Henry Patrick - "Give me 12"-24" of snow, or give me torch"

With no chance of any significant snow in the the short term, I am honestly disappointed there's no sign of any sustained warmth. Screw any pity flakes that only adds salt to the wounds of our season of disappointments. Relying on a favorable pattern mid-March for a slight possibility of something popping up? ...why at that point? Does it add to next year's totals?

"Let this winter die, kill it if you have to"

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You’re insane and obviously know nothing of the 93 storm. You’re judging a weather event based upon how much snow fell in your yard alone. Granted it wouldn’t have been as awesome had I not gotten nearly 30” of snow, it was an event that has no equal when you consider it covered from Florida to Maine. Do some research.

I was there, lol. It was one of the events that deepened my love for meteorology. I know all about it.

Not just my backyard, I was thinking regionally, as this is the mid-Atlantic forum. We've had much better storms where the whole region did well, not just the west. Giving up snow for 5 years is insane. Giving up snow for 5 years for a storm that was just good to great, but unspectacular for the majority of the sub forum is....what?

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If I got to witness 93 again I’d forfeit snow for 5 years gladly

Taken at face value this is illogical and makes absolutely zero sense. Especially given the fact that we've had multiple storms since (and numerous prior) that have been way better....by far.

What are we missing?

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i get all the skepticism and pessimism, but how can this not get you excited? this is a perfect synoptic progression on the EPS. crazy

Excited? lol, It's 10 days away. How many times have we been burned so far this season?

Extremely EXTREMELY cautiously optimistic? Maybe....

On 2/24/2023 at 9:24 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Well, it isn't debris from salting the roads, so what is it?

https://wtop.com/weather-news/2023/02/dust-spotted-on-cars-west-of-d-c-where-did-it-originate/

Not sure if tweet stated it was from two states over, more like 7 to 8 states over. 

3 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

 I got a feeling. 

*hooo hooo*

That tonight it's going to disappear

That tonight it's going to disappear