Its a Breeze

20 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Remember when this month was going to be cooler than normal? 

Looks like We're going to end up pretty much spot on average. Tomorrow may push us very slightly above. Maybe.

46 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

2018-19 wasn't that bad, AN for IAD/DCA and near normal for BWI

The December miss (for all the northern folks) would have pushed it to the 'great' category....

12 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Tbh I feel myself losing interest...I'll bet this board goes the way of the SE forum if we continue to have winters like the last 7 years. I don't know about anybody else, but I came here and was drawn to the science of it for the snow. Without that, or with it becoming increasingly difficult and even less of a ROI than it was in what used to be a "bad" year before this drought.

Nah, just move further south, lol

Last year was above normal with a 13"er. The 2019 season was well above average as well. Ya'll are too far north!

Edit to add: This "drought" started after 3 above average seasons in a row. Do you know how rare that is?? '14, '15, and '16 were not that long ago

For us at least, this year completes the balance. 10 years. 5 above average. 5 below.

6 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

It smells outside

I didn't go out earlier in the day, but you apparently were definitely not alone in smelling something.

https://wtop.com/local/2023/03/fire-officials-investigating-reports-of-smoke-odor-across-dc-region/

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

if we get a central-based Nino we're probably going to clean up. those are almost always money

"we" as in ya'll.

West-based please.

On 3/25/2023 at 1:38 PM, BlizzardNole said:

Quite  bit of the area at just 25-50% of normal over the last 30 days.  We will need a couple good rainmakers in April.  Eastern NC looking really crispy

Looks like the area is starting to be officially abnormally dry now -

https://www.drought.gov/current-conditions

3 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

This has been happening a lot lately, where you look at the distribution of temperatures for a given date at a given hour (these are usually normally distributed - so a bell curve), and we keep having instances where we are WAYYYY down the right tail of these distributions, i.e. temperatures that are rarely seen at that hour for that date.

Just about exclusively a late Fall to early Spring thing.

The frequency this year has been thanks to a winter of endless cutters.

Officially our 2nd 70 degree day this year.

13 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

71 here as well - yeah I feel like by late March most of the records are gonna be 80+.

With 90s sprinkled in. For DCA, the record today is 93 (1907.)

Not sure what was going on in 1907. All three 90+ degree March records happened then.

In an above avg. snowfall year. Including 6" in March...

Absolutely brutal tomorrow

80s so close....

On 3/19/2023 at 1:01 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Were they a Terps rival at one time?

From the Terp perspective, nope. Not even a little bit....

George Mason? That a community college?

On 3/19/2023 at 1:02 AM, Maestrobjwa said:

Didn't think MD was a team folks disliked...but that ain't the case, lol

Haters gonna hate....

16 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah especially around here where we do humid well. Not sure why people root for warmth so much...I think for some it's a coping mechanism to sarcastically root for it to numb the snowless pain, lol

There's a huge difference between warmth that's being rooted for and heat.

I have not seen one person rooting for heat. But warmer temperatures than we have now? Yes! Who wouldn't want that?

I stated this before. Our window of nice weather is extremely short. Anything we can do to get the nice weather in here quickly, before we drown in heat and humidity, bring it on. Being cold is absolutely useless this time of year.

3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Arlington and Alexandria were already populated in the 1950s (albeit smaller than present day).  DC actually was larger (804k people in the 1950 census).  It's not like it was farm land around DCA in 1950.  In other words, the UHI already existed by then in and around DCA.

Understood, but in this case, DC's population matters little compared to the amount of dense development has sprung up in the areas around National since the 50s. It existed sure, but has been exacerbated since.

DCA is just a tremendously horrible spot for official weather records anyway. In fact, I honestly can't think of a worse spot. Maybe the Blue Plains treatment area?

2 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

the built environment around DCA isn't dramatically different from 1950 to the present.  Some place like IAD?  Definitely.  But your core urban stations (DCA, NYC, etc) were already built up by the 50s.

I honestly can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not...?

If not, that is not even remotely accurate. Crystal City didn't even really exist until the 60s. DCA itself has undergone dramatic changes since '50.

Even the last 5-10 years has seen significant urban growth in the areas near Reagan....

Do we use this threat to talk about the potential glorious weather late next week?

Terps W!!

Now to go run a few miles to get the heart rate back down....

No one was even close

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think he has a valid point though because this relates to our prospects in the future...we are in the middle of an extremely favorable period of pacific forcing and its having almost no effect on the problem out west.  I think his "what's it gonna take" wasnt focused on just right now.  

Middle?

Hopefully end, as we're finally breaking free from a perpetual unfavorable ENSO...

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

The same pattern all year, the ridge bridge of death. Anyone have a time machine I can use to thanksgiving?

What is the goal now?

It is Spring. We have a very brief window of relatively nice weather before we're beat with the Hazy Hot and Humid hammer. If the goal is snow in this region 1) It's Spring 2) It's just not our year this year. Plain and simple. Let this winter die. Anything that hastens and extends that brief period of great weather, bring it on.

1 hour ago, Rvarookie said:

Any 70s popping up yet? Kind of tired of the wind and cold 

Maybe!

Do the 10+ day head fakes apply equally to warm temps though?

23 minutes ago, Heisy said:

…Good news is we’re still far enough out to see changes.

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Still time for this one to improve but if we keep our expectations low we won’t be disappointed

Given that with the countless other storms we have tracked this year, at no point have conditions improved so that any changes were for the better as we moved closer to an event and now, as we move steadily to a harsher seasonal climate, this is the level of optimism that I wish for all of humanity....

I feel like those still rooting for snow at this point have, you know...a thing...for pain.

6 minutes ago, DeeDeeHCue said:

Buries Atlanta then into Charlotte by 183, enters southern Va strong at 189

heavy snow just south of Richmond at 195

but then a rain storm for DC that disintegrates at 204 and out to sea.

damn

Define "buries"

Nearly all rain for Atl and Charlotte...

2 hours ago, mappy said:

 

 

 

Wooow...

Loved him on the team. There's no doubt he brought a spark to the team. But....I do think it's the right move not resigning him.

Howell or bust. We know what we'd get with Heinicke. And it's just, unfortunately, not enough. Definitely wishing him the best though.

33 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Storms still there. 8 days out. That's all that matters at this point.

lol, I think that it's meteorological, climatological (that even a word?), astronomical, and botanically Spring matters a tad more...

(for anything substantial)