Its a Breeze

So hear me out....

RIC is technically in southern Virginia, and therefore should not count. Also, with Labor Day being the end of summer, we can ignore any subsequent readings and close the contest as of yesterday.

6 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We can thank Franklin for nearly single handedly accomplishing this

He was getting a bit long in the tooth there. 

No longer tropical but it's fascinating watching Jose get absorbed into him. We don't see two named systems collide very often! Maybe we can get all four to kinda squish together...

3 hours ago, RIC_WX said:

Haven't most of the forecasted heat waves this season failed to deliver?  What makes this one different?

It certainly hasn't reached the temperatures that the models (specifically the GFS) have shown. But for the most part, the idea of it getting warmer has generally come to fruition...

Looks like we'll have another chance next week to hit some of those numbers. Maybe.

Likely a good chance that this'll be our last shot.

14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Not sure I am seeing things right, but it seems we had a little more North Northwestward jog based on satellite images. Anyone else see this? It is not too significant, but could have some implications! 

 

Hard to tell. It looks like a bit of dry air is trying to intrude right now which may be responsible for any slight jogs. And we'll see if that temporarily stems any rapid intensification for the time being...

20 hours ago, mattie g said:

Hindsight is 20/20, but we had all kinds of folks on here stating that they didn't think NHC should have doubled down on their call for an above-average season. I didn't point it out at the time, but it always amazes me when people think they know so much better than experts.

Experts can be wrong, of course, but it seemed pretty obvious that they were confident coming into mid-August despite the basin looking dead for a long time prior.

Low end, for the NHC forecast to be on target we'll need the vast majority of the 5 more named storms, 4 of which become hurricanes, in the next couple weeks. High end, we'll need the majority of the 12 more named storms and 9 more hurricanes in the next couple weeks.

Sure we can do the low end, it's just that in an El Nino year, it's not going to get easier moving forward. We're up against time.

For Colorado State - we need 9 more name storms and 7 more hurricanes.

Tough ask.

****

Edit to add -

Franklin is absolutely magnificent right now. Beautiful storm.

I didn't do too bad this year.

Next year, I do not think we'll be as fortunate in being this "low", but we'll see.

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I personally didn't like 09-10 so much because the snow melted so fast. We were due for a record setting snowfall in the right pattern since low pressures have gravitated off the coast since year 2000, but these Pac warm air blips quickly following a trough had our blizzards mostly melted in ~3 days. I know most people here love numbers, but these quick variations back and forth with the pna (like today) would give us some warmer air the Wintertime post-storm to melt newly fallen snow. Just initializing out.

You've said this before and, nothing has changed. It still remains 100% false.

Dec.'s snow lasted til Christmas. Then we had snow on the ground from late Jan to late Feb. We were below average nearly the whole month of Feb.

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Now this is pretty cool

 

Very cool indeed. I'm like a couple weeks late, and don't have vid/pic proof, but the last time we had thunderstorms around here I saw one!

Took the dog out and as I'm waiting, I felt a couple drops. Looked up. Completely clear skies overhead. Didn't have to wait long to see flashes of lightning on the horizon though. I kept looking up because...that was cool! The clear sky would occasionally light up and a drop here and there from seemingly nothing. As I'm looking up there's a brief, streaky/stringy but very clear flash of red. My first thought was 'Wow a sprite!' Right? The Perseids were going on so then I briefly thought, or maybe a reddish meteor entered weirdly? But quickly dismissed that. Youtube'd a couple videos to confirm. Definitely a sprite.

53 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Nada for I-95?

Needs to move a tick or two west.

And temps need to drop 50 degrees or so.

3 hours ago, yoda said:

This was 12 years ago?  Dang... time flies

Truly an interesting, if not amazing experience.

For me when it was happening and immediately after, it was about 99% wow/awesome and 1% nervousness - like 1) what are we supposed to be doing? hiding under a desk? running out the building? 2) that...was not weak.

18 hours ago, Jebman said:

This is extremely bad.

This here, is WISCONSIN we are talkin about.

It's one thing when it is this hot in south central Texas. It is quite another thing when my elderly uncle in La Crosse, WI has to try to contend with Austin, TX-magnitude extreme heat.

Not downplaying this current heat wave, but believe it or not, the mid-west gets HOT, lol. And frequently.

They have warmer extremes than we see here in the mid-Atlantic. La Crosse's all time high temp is hotter than DC's.

Looks like Gert is one of those 'screw it, just name it' storms . Don't think it actually reached TS strength but *shugs*

Should disappear in an advisory or two.

1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Maybe I just haven't been paying attention, but I can't recall seeing a system that rides so closely against the Baja coast and runs into southern California like the GFS is showing for early next week.

Not just GFS, looks like most or all the models are showing pretty much the same. It should be, but it's not surprising that Cali may be affected by a tropical system before anyone on the east coast...

And yeah, that is very rare. Looks like tropical storm Lidia in 2017 is the latest system that came close to that. Unless Hurricane Kay last year counts. Neither went directly into Cali.

Not sure if this counts, because it certainly wasn't cold. It was hot that day. Like 80s hot*.

But having a snowball fight in the middle of summer is another of my favorite memories. Not around here, were in Yellowstone and of course multiple thousands of feet up. It of course wasn't fresh snow, but months old patchy icy slush, but still, it was the first time I had a snowball fight in shorts.

*It was significantly cooler where these patches of snow were still around, but you didn't have to travel too far down to be back in the heat.

25 minutes ago, mdhokie said:

This is extremely un-scientific but I feel like modelling this summer has been pretty poor, at least in short term resolutions. I was out in Missouri for a week at the beginning of the month. 5 days out the forecast was for multiple days of 100+ and sunny. Ended up raining at some point every day and highs in the mid 80s. There have been weeks here of the same precip/temp issues. Maybe we are on a boundary and its really hard to nail down? 

Models are too hot in the summer, and too cold in the winter. So it perfectly balances out

And on that note, I predict we will have between .01" and 70" of snow this winter. 

LOTs of dust coming off Africa right now. Atlantic will be quiet for a while. They should have stuck with the 30% chance of an above normal season. Or lower.

Finally, a spectacular day where the sky is actually blue!

Feels amazing out

2 hours ago, H2O said:

It better get going to hit those numbers. Unless the pattern changes soon it will bust. 

Looks like they're still betting on the warm waters. But what we're, for the most part, seeing is that the myriad of other factors that go into making a tropical system are of equal, if not greater importance.

Definitely don't think we'll be that above average, if at all. We'll see though.

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Sky is much bluer this morning. Guessing it’s dispersing or lifting north 

Looks like neither. Just moved south a bit. May push back this afternoon (per NWS)

52 minutes ago, Wxtrix said:

an overnight low of 54 as those few perfect August days begin.

and the smoke is back:

 

Figured and meant to check.

It was/is definitely a "hmm...the sky is not as blue as it should be" kind of morning. Feels spectacular though!

If we were going to hit 100+, we should be at least 90 by now.

We'll try again tomorrow. If not tomorrow, then next year.

14 hours ago, midatlanticweather said:

Awesome hailstorm in Purcellville 

Wow. 

 

The hail caught me off guard as I wasn't expecting much of anything! It even started to accumulate.

Can't lie, I giggled a bit...

14 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

All I keep reading on here is about this nice summer.  I don't see it.  It's been consistently above normal since the end of June.  Maybe it's a local thing since it hasn't rained out here. But it seems like it's hit 90F almost every day this month, including today.  And we are definitely adding at least another 5 days to that tally this week.

ETA: pulled the data...yep, only 4 days this month below 90F.  This summer is more 2010 than 2014.

 

Summer is more than one month. Can't ignore June.

And yes, 90 is hot. But we can handle that. We haven't had many HOT unbearable days.

95+ days:

BWI - 2, IAD - 1, DCA - 0

That'll change this week, but we really haven't been too bad...

On 7/19/2023 at 11:48 PM, WEATHER53 said:

Probably 1994

And speaking of '94, I know this is about snow, but can we add the ice storms of that year to the list?

Simply amazing. Especially when we had snow on top of the ice. Was still a kid so I had a blast with the countless slips and falls. I imagine for most, it'd be a different story now