Maggie Ace

Enjoying the brief warm up and light rain this evening. Cold front arrives tomorrow bringing a bit of drier air for the weekend. Watching later next week closely as a cooler and unsettled pattern develops for Halloween. The Elk are moving about daily now and the leaves are falling around the house.

Heavy frost again in Maggie. 4th day in a row. Living under the inversion.

Freezing in Maggie this morning with heavy frost to the ground.

Congratulations Met1985!

35 at the house in Maggie. The wind died down overnight.

Big changes coming tomorrow morning across the Mountains. The much anticipated strong cold front arrives in the morning just after dawn ushering in strong gusty winds and colder/drier Canadian air. Some of the meso guidance is hinting the possibility of sleet pellet/flurry or two for the highest elevations. I will not be surprised to see Frost Advisories issued for Sunday night/Monday morning. The wind should bring down the rest of the Poplar leaves around the house!

October is starting very wet across the Mountains. Rain started mid day yesterday here in Maggie and continues throughout the week. Our Poplar trees are dumping leaves which is about a month earlier than last fall. Fall colors are going strong now below 5000 feet. The heavier rains expected mid week may bring an early end to leaf season around the Smokies.

Fall colors are ahead of last year here in Maggie Valley. Peak leaf season may arrive near mid October for those interested.

43 this morning for my low. After 5 days of low temperatures of at least the low to mid 40’s, there is increasing fall colors along the Ridgelines with increasing reds down here in the Valley.

38 this morning here in Maggie. There was some scattered frost on the roof tops.

So when are we moving to a Fall/Winter topic?

Upper 30's/low 40’s looking likely Thursday morning. Light NW breeze may allow the first frost of the season for higher elevations.

50 in Maggie this morning.

Drier air filtering in now. Looks like night time temperatures are going to cool down nicely the several days. I ended up with just shy of 3 inches of rain from Ida. Thankfully we faired much better than 2 weeks ago.

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0907 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 147 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Areas affected...Southern Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 311746Z - 312346Z Summary...Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Ida will bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Rain rates of 1-2"/hr over saturated soils could lead to flash flooding. Discussion...The center of T.D. Ida, now over northern Alabama, will continue moving east/northeast, drawing up anomalously high moisture across the southern Appalachians. Recent blended TPW products show values exceeding 2" with local maxima 2.4-2.5" across northern Alabama. Visible satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the convective bands and this has allowed upwards of 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE to develop across northern Georgia and far northeast Alabama. Over the next several hours, a few convective bands will lift northeast across upstate SC and western NC providing good upslope component for training bands and enhanced rainfall. As the storm's center approaches during peak heating and with the clearing wedge seen in visible satellite, this is likely to fill in and track additional storms over northern GA and southwest NC. Storm motions becoming aligned parallel to the mean flow and favorable tropical environment for enhanced rain rates (tall/skinny CAPE and WCDs near 4.3 km) should result in highly efficient low topped convective bands. There is a strong signal in the 12Z HREF for rainfall totals through 00Z to exceed the local 5-10 year ARI with high probabilities of 1-2"/hr rain rates. Total amounts of 2-3" with some localized 3-4" totals will be possible. Much of the outlook area has been wetter than normal the last 7-14 days and the NASA SPoRT soil moisture for the 0-100 cm layer is running 90+ percent. As a result, the expected rain rates and totals are likely to exceed the FFGs and lead to instances of flash flooding, especially for the more sensitive terrain areas of southwest to western NC. Taylor ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...