Maggie Ace

It's turned out to be a nice evening after clouds and spits of rain most of the day. It's looking like we get a stronger cold front Monday night into Tuesday. Concern growing that we will have to deal with whatever is left of Ian Thursday night into Friday. Fingers crossed that the winds aren't too strong and we can escape the heavier rains. Hate to see leaf season ruined.

44 here at the house this morning.

We had two rounds of showers move through the past hour with some gusty winds, but the actual front appears to be crossing Eastern Tennessee right now heading towards the Smokies. Shouldn't be too long before the drier air arrives and the temperature begins to drop.

Keeping a keen eye on the tropics. The models seem to be converging on a solution that could bring heavy rainfall with gusty winds for our area later next week.

The latest NAM suggests the upper 30’s for the low Friday morning. Likely some frost around the higher elevations if the wind lays down.

Exactly. The Western Pacific continues to recurve Typhoons into the N Pacific for the foreseeable future. That typically spells model volatility. Lows in the upper 50's/low 60's with highs in the upper 70's isn't a 'heatwave' in my book.

Only managed a low of 53 this morning. Loving the beautiful days of lower dewpoints.

Wind finally died down after 2 AM and the temperature dropped into the 40's in response. 46 for my morning low.

69 at 5:30 feels nice with lower dewpoints. I see the low forecast for Mt Mitchell is 40 with windchill values in the low 30’s. My gut says we may hit 50 tomorrow morning here in the Valley. We'll see...

We has a couple of rounds of moderate rain today here in Maggie. Thankfully a cold front arrives tomorrow morning ushering in some much drier air and cooler temperatures. Not expecting 40’s here just yet, but we could make a run at it!

We definitely had an early Fall like day in Maggie. My high temperature was 68 and I even had to put on a flannel shirt on this afternoon. The Elk are in full rut and very active!

Precipitation Discussion 0940 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 329 PM EDT Sun Sep 04 2022 Areas affected...Southern Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 041927Z - 042300Z Summary...Scattered thunderstorms with localized heavy rain could lead to some additional flash flooding into this evening, particularly for sensitive areas of western Upstate South Carolina. Discussion...Convergent low level flow downstream of a positively tilted trough over the Mid-South will continue to advect moisture and instability north across Georgia and South Carolina and over the southern Appalachians into this evening. Scattered convective storms have developed over northern Georgia and are approaching the western tip of South Carolina which has had two distinct areas of particularly heavy/flooding rains the past two mornings. Hourly rainfall estimates in the heaviest cells from KFFC and KGSP are generally around 1", but the increasing moisture and instability should allow rates to increase to 2"/hr into this evening. PWs are 2 to 2.2" over north-central Georgia and SBCAPE is up around 2500 J/kg over central Georgia. Recent RAP runs have that moisture and instability continuing to lift north through the central Appalachians over the next few hours on the 12kt southerly 850mb flow seen on regional VWPs over GA/SC. Mean layer SWly flow is generally 10-15kt over GA which is perpendicular to the stationary front over the western part of the state. As the risk for 2"/hr rates increases with some repeating risk the 3hr FFG of 2.5-3" could be exceeded. Flash flooding is considered possible into this evening, particularly if heavier cells get into far western South Carolina. Jackson ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...GSP...MRX...

Rain fell moderately during the night and it looks like a lot more is on the way. Concerned that a potential Flash Flood event could unfold later today into tomorrow. Hopefully folks camping along our creeks for Labor Day Weekend are paying attention.

53 at the house this morning. Coolest of the young season so far.

What a gorgeous early Fall like day out there. Dewpoints in the 50's with a current temperature of 75. I saw that Mount Mitchell had windchill readings in the 30's overnight. Time to move to the Fall/Winter thread!