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Maggie Ace

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Everything posted by Maggie Ace

  1. Crisp Fall day across the Smokies where we may not get out of the 40's. Freeze looks good for overnight into tomorrow morning. Low temperatures in the mid to upper 20’s are possible across the Valley.
  2. Mighty breezy this morning in the Valley ahead of the cold front. Lingering moisture in the NW flow overnight into tomorrow could bring a wintry mix to the highest elevations above 6000 ft tomorrow morning. Another strong front arrives Thursday in the progressive unsettled pattern that looks to bring chilly/raw weather into the weekend. The long range looks intriguing as we begin November. It won't be long before the snow guns crank up.
  3. Enjoying the brief warm up and light rain this evening. Cold front arrives tomorrow bringing a bit of drier air for the weekend. Watching later next week closely as a cooler and unsettled pattern develops for Halloween. The Elk are moving about daily now and the leaves are falling around the house.
  4. Heavy frost again in Maggie. 4th day in a row. Living under the inversion.
  5. Freezing in Maggie this morning with heavy frost to the ground.
  6. 35 at the house in Maggie. The wind died down overnight.
  7. Big changes coming tomorrow morning across the Mountains. The much anticipated strong cold front arrives in the morning just after dawn ushering in strong gusty winds and colder/drier Canadian air. Some of the meso guidance is hinting the possibility of sleet pellet/flurry or two for the highest elevations. I will not be surprised to see Frost Advisories issued for Sunday night/Monday morning. The wind should bring down the rest of the Poplar leaves around the house!
  8. October is starting very wet across the Mountains. Rain started mid day yesterday here in Maggie and continues throughout the week. Our Poplar trees are dumping leaves which is about a month earlier than last fall. Fall colors are going strong now below 5000 feet. The heavier rains expected mid week may bring an early end to leaf season around the Smokies.
  9. Fall colors are ahead of last year here in Maggie Valley. Peak leaf season may arrive near mid October for those interested.
  10. 43 this morning for my low. After 5 days of low temperatures of at least the low to mid 40’s, there is increasing fall colors along the Ridgelines with increasing reds down here in the Valley.
  11. 38 this morning here in Maggie. There was some scattered frost on the roof tops.
  12. So when are we moving to a Fall/Winter topic?
  13. Upper 30's/low 40’s looking likely Thursday morning. Light NW breeze may allow the first frost of the season for higher elevations.
  14. Drier air filtering in now. Looks like night time temperatures are going to cool down nicely the several days. I ended up with just shy of 3 inches of rain from Ida. Thankfully we faired much better than 2 weeks ago.
  15. Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0907 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 147 PM EDT Tue Aug 31 2021 Areas affected...Southern Appalachians Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 311746Z - 312346Z Summary...Rain bands associated with Tropical Depression Ida will bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southern Appalachians this afternoon. Rain rates of 1-2"/hr over saturated soils could lead to flash flooding. Discussion...The center of T.D. Ida, now over northern Alabama, will continue moving east/northeast, drawing up anomalously high moisture across the southern Appalachians. Recent blended TPW products show values exceeding 2" with local maxima 2.4-2.5" across northern Alabama. Visible satellite imagery shows a few breaks in the convective bands and this has allowed upwards of 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE to develop across northern Georgia and far northeast Alabama. Over the next several hours, a few convective bands will lift northeast across upstate SC and western NC providing good upslope component for training bands and enhanced rainfall. As the storm's center approaches during peak heating and with the clearing wedge seen in visible satellite, this is likely to fill in and track additional storms over northern GA and southwest NC. Storm motions becoming aligned parallel to the mean flow and favorable tropical environment for enhanced rain rates (tall/skinny CAPE and WCDs near 4.3 km) should result in highly efficient low topped convective bands. There is a strong signal in the 12Z HREF for rainfall totals through 00Z to exceed the local 5-10 year ARI with high probabilities of 1-2"/hr rain rates. Total amounts of 2-3" with some localized 3-4" totals will be possible. Much of the outlook area has been wetter than normal the last 7-14 days and the NASA SPoRT soil moisture for the 0-100 cm layer is running 90+ percent. As a result, the expected rain rates and totals are likely to exceed the FFGs and lead to instances of flash flooding, especially for the more sensitive terrain areas of southwest to western NC. Taylor ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...MRX...
  16. Wind Advisory issued for this afternoon into tomorrow morning.
  17. Moderate risk for excessive rainfall outlined by the WPC in the Smokies Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Cautiously watching the upper trough digging down from the upper Mid West this morning. Thankfully it does not look like another Fred event for Haywood County at this time.
  18. Phil Klotzbach reports Ida ranks with Hurricane Allen (1980) and Hurricane Rita (2005) with a 40 mb drop in pressure in the Gulf in 12 hours.
  19. Getting a bit concerned that we may have high winds to contend with as well. Models are typically too slow with the transition to extra tropical. Need to be aware of that possibility across the mountains.
  20. One thing about our Smoky Mountian Community is that you cannot go anywhere without talking to someone who has been impacted by this flood event. Those outside the Mountains, please keep our folks in your prayers. Recovery is going to be a long and difficult process for many and some of those campgrounds along the Pigeon River may never come back.
  21. Seeing reports of 30 folks unaccounted for in Haywood County. Very disturbing and sad news for our area.
  22. Just got an emergency alert for Haywood County. People along the Pigeon River seek higher ground immediately! Just passed 8.5 inches of rain since 7 AM this morning...sigh
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