Baltimorewx

Yeah I dont disagree but when i was watching radar, Norfolk/VA Beach hardly got into the greens and good stuff...I mean i dont know, how impressive is .8 or so over the course of 12 or more hours? the temps were a big issue but I feel like if some of the heavy stuff in SC and southern NC got up further north, the dynamics would have kicked in better. There was a mesoscale discussion put out yesterday afternoon for the VA/NC area of 1"+ rates, I dont really think that ever materialized.

Yeah, Radar was interesting...seems like all the heavy stuff stayed generally south of Raleigh...the SE VA area was basically under 20 and especially under 25 dbz all day and evening. Its not gonna work for a big snow when its in the 40s as the storm starts and the dynamics never really fully come into play

This was poorly handled by the mesos in general...the globals defintely had the better idea. GFS a little too light and too south but overall it handled it better.

Yeah if we're willing to chase to Central North North Carolina lol

The only thing showing that at this point anymore is the NAMs...we'll see.

I generally agree in the overall synoptics of the storm...People just need to remember that the NAM, especially 12K, almost always overdoes QPF on southern stream storms. Take the 3K snow depth map and I think itll be close to verifying

Yeah but its nice having the GFS somewhat on board. I think the Euro is a little underdone. The truth usually lies in the middle, my prediction would be 2-4 for most of central NC with lollies up to 6". But its not an easy call for sure

I think Richmond is right on the line of steady light snow, so my opinion I wouldnt expect much there...But pending on model runs tonight If I lived in Richmond Id be willing to chase to the Raleigh-Wilson-Greenville corridor. If it goes down, that should be the best spot to see the most snow

lol..I mean I deff think if this goes down the best stuff is well west south west of you but good luck man, hope you at least see some fatties

If parts of East Central NC get 6-12" like the NAM shows, man would that be a kick straight to the furry kiwi's. The NAM and Euro are so worlds apart in terms of the coastal enhancement and dynamics of the snow

Meh. Maybe for Richmond but it still sucks. Gets snow up to about Richmond at hour 81 but then starts shrinking it S & E at 84. This is hopeless for anyone north of Richmond

Man, this place is dead...as it should be. Doesnt really look like any threats to me thru the end of the month

Looks like the severe stuff may have been somewhat elevation fueled. Despite what appeared to be a strengthening line heading into the Baltimore area. Just some really heavy rain and a little wind gust here. Lower elevations didn’t seem to get the punch that a little higher up did

I’ll say October for the N&W folks

I’ll offer 20,000, a weatherbell subscription and a Justin Berk snow stick

Yeah but I actually think the models have been pretty good, reasonably thinking. Yeah of course they have shown some phantom digital snow, but for the most part they have been consistent on the pattern being progressive and most storms cutting to our west and that is what exactly has happened. I’ve done pretty well from a forecasting standpoint for the most part this year, when taking in the models but also using my head and climatology. I mostly come on here to hear other thoughts and occasionally be belligerent.

I think you’re a fraud. You’re literally expecting a computer to model a chaotic global atmosphere perfectly. Can you just stop, Jesus. If you don’t want to discuss long range weather and the models, then don’t come on the forum. Some of the best snowstorms were sniffed out more than 5 days out.

But then back to snow and a heavy dump

I played rec football for 1 year....broke my arm. Stuck to baseball after that lol. So I get it...but there are a LOT of kids who make football "their sport". I watched football when i was a young kid, but I really got into it at about aged 11-12. The Ravens won the first SB when I was 13, so that really spiked it for me. I do think there are some life lessons to be learned from football, it is the ultimate team sport imo

Still. I’d rather at least see a better trend in cold air damming or a little bit more of a southern trajectory with the overrunning precip. We know the storm is going to cut. We need a favorable overrunning situation

The GFS also trended in a bad way for next weeks system Haven’t caught a break all year, hard to think it’ll happen

The NAM and ICON seemed pretty weak at 0z here

Ive never been in....yet. For me, there’s still no reason to believe I’ll get anything more than some white rain that maybe coats up the grass a little bit

I’ve seen that enough times already. I need my first storm that at least produces a complete covering of the blades of grass and complete road caving. I haven’t seen that yet. This GFS run doesn’t do it for me verbatim.

Saying the SB is just for adults is pretty dumb imo....Plenty of kids have interest and want to watch football, despite violent hits, fights yada yada. And it IS in some ways marketed to kids...I mean its a tradition for the damn SB MVP to yell "Im going to Disney World"! and then create a commerical off of that...Not to mention they typically do some sort of kid event like they did in the example shown above. They also have many NFL kid community programs. That said, I do not have a problem with the halftime show. Kids are subjected to much worse, I doubt a halftime show will change their minds and content for the good or bad. I also dont have a kid so theres that. Now we can move on