JB_Wchstr

It’s really something that we’ve had to hope, pray and cast spells to finally get to a wet noodle as the grand finale to this poor excuse for a winter. I know that belongs in banter but I don’t care

NAM almost always overdoes qpf and generally sucks otherwise.

I am disbelieving

Models are struggling with this - err on the side of less impressive when that happens

There are no rules anymore. I think the biggest problem we have with forecasting now is assuming that a+b = c because it always did as long as we’ve been measuring, until now that climate change is messing up all the relationships.

Sounds right. People are letting their (understandable) desperation cloud their judgment.

When the whole winter keeps screaming “I WON’T! I WON’T! I WON’T!”, Don’t believe “I MIGHT”.

High praise

That’s how bad things are lol

When nothing comes in December: What do you want? It’s not even Winter yet. When nothing comes in January: Well, you know, the January thaw. When nothing comes in February: Be patient, the pattern is reloading! When nothing comes in March: What do you expect, it’s almost Spring!

Once a cutter, always a cutter. Even one warm run usually tells the story. This far out you want a whiff, and then it works its way west.

Are you expecting the models to lose the double-barrel stuff?

All of a sudden there’s two lows. What BS lol.

As an aside, has any storm-specific thread ever gotten 300 pages, because this one is about to.

Gotta use the NAM safely!