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Dalfy

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Posts posted by Dalfy

  1. 1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

    Incredible. Looks like it will be one of the top 10 daily snowfalls to have occurred in the last 10 years.

    image.png.3757fcdb1d9c14894c062465c702139c.png

    Yea our snow climo is not so good. Storms usually get suppressed south [N Arkansas and missouri bootleg] or miss us north [NE MO cashes]. 

  2. St. Louis finally cashing in on a >1'' event lol. .18'' rain equivalent has fallen as of 12:51, I'd garner 2-3'' on the ground with maybe 2 hours to go. Rates have been really good [~1''/hr in the last hour] and we've had a few reports of thundersnow in south city. Temp is 31, wind steady 16 with 20 gusts. Trying to enjoy this assuming it may be the last full snow storm of the year in our parts.

    • Like 3
  3. Nice band has setup in central MO though we've been dealing with virgo for the last few hours in St. Louis Metro. It's looking like some precip is falling in Jefferson and radar looks juicier just west so I anticipate the column to moisten in the next hour or so. LSX is calling for up to an inch which is more than I would've expected. Excited to pad our maybe 3'' season total with another inch lol. Temp is a balmy 9F.

     

     

  4. Still some light snow showers in St. Louis metro. Radar has some 20dbz streaking which transiently gets visibility down but no less than 4-5 miles. Looking like some nearby areas are receiving a very light accumulation. Always nice to get a little surprise burst 

  5. Came back to flash frozen car doors and wind whipped light snow after work today. No accumulations but man does it feel wintry out. For those in LSX purview here's the AFD: 

    Expanded slight chance (15%) to chance (50%) PoPs southward through southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois this evening and continued the potential through the next few hours. This is being supported by low/mid-level saturation, a weak trough and a couple of compact mid-level lobes of vorticity, which are providing lift behind the departing system. Persistent flurries and occasional light snow has led to brief visibility reductions, a few as low as 2-3 miles. Accumulations aren`t expected to be much more than a dusting where light snow results, but it will be enough to create wispy art work (via wind-driven, fractured snow grains) on roadways, as it blows around. A few slick spots cannot be rules out, especially with the drastically cold temperatures and strong winds. Light snow potential will slowly taper southwest to northeast with most activity lifting out of the area by 06z

     

  6. 10 minutes ago, NEILwxbo said:

    This seems dramatic but I don’t think I’ve seen rates like this since 2011. If there was a time since it was short lived for sure. Gonna exceed 5” by 5:30 at this rate. 

    One of the few things I really miss about living in the mid atlantic is seeing prolonged 2''+/hr rates from deepening gulf lows careening past hatteras toward the 40/70 benchmark. Enjoy this rare midwestern bomb while you have it

    • Like 1
  7. 13 hours ago, Hoosier said:

    Well, we've seen some outlandish model solutions for this one at times.  Obviously still plenty of uncertainty but there's enough of a signal for an impactful event.  At this time, it appears the southern half or so of the subforum is more favored, but we'll see how this trends in the coming days.

    Someone in MO will cash out with this one. Excited to see how this evolves on the models. 

  8. Sleet ending in STL metro within an hour or so it looks like. I think they're anticipating some lingering freezing drizzle to continue into evening minimal ice accumulation. Overall I think we got around or just under a slushy inch, within their call. Got in a little jeb walk yesterday during the first round so I'm about as satisfied as I could be with this storm. 

  9. Really great summary of the two waves for those in the LSX forecast area.

    As was previously discussed, two relatively distinct rounds of
    wintry precipitation will impact the region. The first round, forced
    mainly be isentropic overrunning stimulated by a shortwave amidst
    southwesterly mid-level flow, will draw wintry precipitation into
    the region. Latest short-range ensembles and CAMs now indicate a
    weaker, more confined area (largely along/south of I-70) of wintry
    precipitation with this first round. From a conceptual standpoint,
    this makes sense as the upper-level synoptic forcing and isentropic
    ascent is not impressive by any stretch. Model soundings Wednesday
    evening illustrate a sub-saturated DGZ, with a deep saturated layer
    beneath that amidst modest lift. A stout warm nose that barely peaks
    above freezing aloft can be discerned between I-70 and I-44, but any
    hydrometeors that melt will most likely refreeze as sleet in the
    deep cold layer beneath. Further south still, we will likely see
    more mixing of rain and sleet where the warm layer is deeper. While
    accumulations with this initial round will be lighter compared to
    the next bout on Thursday (as the forcing within the system is so
    weak), the onset timing coinciding with the evening rush hour will
    likely lead to travel impacts.
    
    Overnight Wednesday into early Thursday morning, what weak
    overrunning and forcing that does exist will further diminish and
    precipitation will become lighter and more scattered across the
    southern CWA. Some model soundings hint at the potential for
    freezing drizzle during this "lull" overnight. A nearly-saturated
    layer extending from near the surface to around 700mb exists
    overnight south of I-70 with some modest lift in the layer. While
    light, a glaze of ice cannot be ruled out for some during this
    relative break in the system.
    
    The more impressive of the two waves will move into the bi-state
    area during the early morning on Thursday and will re-stimulate
    precipitation areawide in time for the morning commute.
    Deterministic guidance agrees that the orientation and depth of the
    mid-level trough will not be favorable for more robust surface
    cyclogenesis. While a low will be deepening, it will be slow to do
    so given the weak amplification and diffluence in the mid/upper
    levels. As such, moist isentropic ascent and overrunning would be
    the main sources of forcing for this second round. This scenario is
    supported in the isentropic fields among the deterministic guidance,
    which shows more extensive and impressive isentropic lift across the
    region.
    
    Precipitation types will vary across the region tomorrow. North of I-
    70 will see almost exclusively snow, but given the lack of a more
    robust synoptic system any mesoscale banding that would cause more
    intense localized snow totals are highly unlikely. Another aspect
    working against higher snow totals: the DGZ never saturates in any
    notable way, which severely decreases the efficiency of dendritic
    growth. This scenario is further supported by the NBM interquartile
    range for snow not including amounts larger than 4" in the northern
    CWA. There is some raw guidance that suggests higher amounts, but
    they are likely being influenced by sleet contamination. For the
    area that will largely see accumulating snow and not much changing
    precipitation type, a Winter Weather Advisory was issued this
    afternoon.
    
    South of this area, along I-70 south to just south of I-44, a
    corridor of significant sleet is expected to develop and cause
    notable impacts to travel for the morning commute Thursday. Model
    soundings show more notable lift compared to the first wave, with a
    largely-similar thermodynamic profile. NBM probabilities of sleet
    are also relatively high in the mid/late morning through the
    afternoon (topping out at 60%, but may still be too low). Sleet
    accumulations up to 1" can be expected, which would be quite
    impactful. As such, a Winter Storm Warning was issued for the
    areas where sleet accumulations would exceed 0.5".
    
    Further south still, the depth of the warm nose aloft will be much
    more pronounced, which in turn makes the cold air below it more
    shallow. This would be a much more favorable scenario for freezing
    rain, especially if surfaces cool as precipitation falls with the
    first wave of wintry mix Wednesday evening. That being said,
    accumulations on roadways will still be limited as the sun angle for
    this time of year and barely-freezing conditions will not promote
    efficient accretion. Admittedly, this forecast may be a bit too
    bullish on those ice totals, especially if the above-mentioned
    limitations come to fruition. On elevated surfaces, which would
    be a bit cooler, ice accretion would be more efficient and could
    lead to downed tree limbs and power outages in southeast Missouri
    and southwest Illinois. Given the potential for significant
    impacts and ice accumulations, a Winter Storm Warning more
    specifically for ice was issued across southeast Missouri and
    southwest Illinois.
    
    Precipitation wanes during the evening Thursday from west to east as
    the system intensifies and ejects east out of the region.
    Temperatures stay below average and skies begin to clear as our
    third winter system in as many weeks comes to an end.
  10. Beautiful outside. Snow is very powdery and blowing everywhere. Rates are not as high as I'd hoped, I may have slept through the best of it, but it's still great to watch. This was a very spread the wealth storm, which I've also appreciated quite a bit. 

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