Prospero
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Posts posted by Prospero
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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Yep--looks like the center got shunted a little SW per the VDM
I wouldn't have believed it if I couldn't see it on the visible! LOL
Oh well, I have to go to bed. My Sunday fun is over, will be up at 4 and see what is happening.
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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Yep--looks like the center got shunted a little SW per the VDM
Can see it on visible a little. SW, wow.
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2 minutes ago, Tezeta said:
Now John Mayer is a real musician. Props to him.
Filling Jerry's shoes better than anyone else could. Jerry fumbling a note or two, or forgetting where he was in a song (Telluride '87 comes to mind) was just a part of old Grateful Dead reality and we accepted it. John is young, hopefully stays clean, and a joy to hear and watch tickle the strings.
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37 minutes ago, Tezeta said:
The dead sucked. Jerry was a heroin addict, Bobby can’t sing, Phil is a shill for the liver industrial complex, everyone hated Donna, pigpen was selfish and destructive, etc etc.
You know a lot for a hater! LOL
Jerry said the Grateful Dead was like licorice. "Some people hate licorice, but people who like licorice, really like licorice."
I have tickets to Dead and Company this October, can't wait!
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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Not much change on that center pass.
My little arrow was slightly too far right based on the TidBit image. Convection did not wrap around it fully, shear got it.
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35 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:
Center still not under that deep convection
I think it was for a moment. But I haven't looked at TropicalTidBits and I should learn it better. I spent the afternoon in Photoshop with a grid I made to the 10ths of a degree Lats and Lons trying to map the NOAA LLC points and superimposing sats over it to see what exactly was going on. Hardly a perfect method especially after 30 minutes goes by and longer with the storm moving along....
Nice blowup going on even though surely displaced a bit.
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14 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:
We've been to the same Dead show? The odds in a country of 300 million people...
You are the first person I've run into who was at that show.
We took Amtrack from Winter Park, CO to Oakland because there was a blizzard coming through. I remember the train inching along at about 10 mph in Nevada because it was something below zero and the track switches were frozen so the train had to go soooo slow. Cars on the icy roads seem to fly past us. Then there was snow over 10 feet deep on Donner's Pass. Oh the green grass at the Kaiser and SF Bay area weather for us mountain people was amazing after six months buried in snow in the Colorado Ski areas (Steamboat Springs was our base).
Fun three shows, Mardi Gras night as well.
But yea, 880 that we were on around Oakland once we got there pancaked in the earthquake. Scary. We all were shocked when that happened.
Glad Phil's bass didn't trigger the earthquake when we were there. (Coming back around to on-topic...)
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10 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:
Jammed the Beatle's 'Hey Jude', and every drum was miked to a different speaker, the drums circled the auditorium. Opened with 'Hell in a Bucket', that was, I think, the latest album.
Loved the Kaiser, a great venue. Yea Hey Jude was a real treat, right out of Dear Mr Fantasy!
Take a listen:
https://archive.org/details/gd88-03-17.sbd.samaritano.21297.sbeok.shnf/gd1988-03-17d2t10.shn
Got goose pimples just now listenting. Fun show. I accidentally did WAY too much. LOL
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Just now, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said:
St. Patrick's Day, 1988, the Dead at the Kaiser in Oakland. I can neither confirm nor deny mind altering substances ingested. Not much more than a year later, the 880 freeway, how we got from Alameda to Berkeley, collapsed in an earthquake.
I was there, little green bottles going around. Great Sugaree! (I have a CD from a .flac download.)
Saw them in Philly the night after the earthquake and we didn't know if they'd make, but they did. Opened with Shakedown Street.
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Coordinates: 27.1N 85.7W
Interesting, that is kind of in the middle of the convection:
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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:
Fred isn’t the strongest system ever but I’m impressed by how it has gotten itself off the mat. I expected it to an extent, but it’s really holding tough in the center in the face of moderate shear.
Wind is one thing, but there’s a serious flash flooding threat for parts of the SE as this makes its way inland.
Yea, not the wildest storm I've been near. But all I have for a Sunday afternoon that I have been planning on for a week or so.
All in all, I'm satisfied for what we have seen around Tampa Bay. Fun enough for me. We might get more tonight, but it will not be costly or painful. There is a band coming in that I'll stay up for.
Plus it is very hard to complain about any day in August around here when the temperatures stay in the low 80's and upper 70's with a breeze.
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1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:
I was out while Fred was in the grave but I’m back now!
I was about to claim I saw an eye to see if anybody was awake. LOL
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A topic that has come up this season has been the storm activity in EPAC and how it affects the Atlantic storms. I'm sure it was not that long ago in meteorological history when that concept would be laughed out of the room.
Good grief, it was like yesterday that people thought the sun went around the Earth which was flat.
I remember a legend where the Grateful Dead were playing "Fire on the Mountain" when Mt. St. Helen's blew up. And everybody who knows the Grateful Dead knows that Phil's bass beat will shake up the Earth.
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Another burst of convection over the LLC.
Funny, Fred has lost interest of almost everybody around here. The forum will pick up later I guess.
The band we had earlier may be the worst we get here in Tampa Bay. At least it was in the daytime and I was up to watch it!
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On a scientific level that is a very complicated question.
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How close was the trigger that set off the earthquake?
Was some extra weight and imbalance on the surface enough to do it? -
How deep does the Earth feel air pressure changes?
Does the ground breath and expand with the air?
If so, how deep does it go? -
Does the moon and tide have an impact on the Earth's crust as well?
Did the moon's gravity tug at some molten mantle? - Did me dropping a paver block in my backyard the other day create a ripple that vibrated to Haiti?
I tend to believe that everything is connected to everything else on some level. Anything that happens anywhere is related to everything that happens everywhere else.
Just the way I think...
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How close was the trigger that set off the earthquake?
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59 mph gust at Albert Whitted Airport here in St Pete just now.
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42 mph gust at the Pensacola Buoy and the West Tampa Buoy within the last few minutes.
34 mph at the Skyway Fishing Pier on Tampa Bay.
Having out first driving rain from some storms that came from inland. Looks like we are on the edge of a TS!
Convection hanging onto the LLC so far.
Time to switch from coffee to beer!
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4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:
Is the shear lessening?
The convection is blowing up likely due to the temperature of the Gulf and the LLC underneath is towards the southwestern part of the burst. But if it stacks up and doesn't blow off we'll have something more interesting to watch for a while.
Still seems to be tracking north, at least the past couple hours.
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First time I remember seeing a convection burst directly over the LLC of Fred.
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Looks to me like the LLC is moving almost due north on sats.
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46 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:
Just an update TS warnings start at the Santa Rosa/Okaloosa county line. Navarre is actually under a TS Watch.
.Under a warning now.
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from Indian Pass to Steinhatchee River. A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the coast of the Florida Panhandle from Navarre to the Wakulla/Jefferson County line.
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13 minutes ago, GaWx said:
12Z Ukmet is quite a bit east of the NHC forecast track:
TROPICAL STORM FRED ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 84.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 15.08.2021 0 25.6N 84.6W 1010 30 0000UTC 16.08.2021 12 26.7N 86.0W 1006 36 1200UTC 16.08.2021 24 28.0N 86.1W 1004 35 0000UTC 17.08.2021 36 29.3N 85.8W 1001 38 1200UTC 17.08.2021 48 31.1N 85.0W 1005 30 0000UTC 18.08.2021 60 33.3N 84.0W 1007 24 1200UTC 18.08.2021 72 37.3N 82.3W 1012 15 0000UTC 19.08.2021 84 39.3N 80.2W 1014 25 1200UTC 19.08.2021 96 CEASED TRACKINGThat's a landfall at about Panama City Beach, or right on Mexico Beach. UGH
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7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:
Looks like a non-linear increase in intensity is about to happen based on vis.
May I ask, what is a "non-linear" increase"?
Conditions in Gulfport, FL:
Light rain here with a steady 15-20 mph breeze. Looks like we'll have that for now on and both will increase some as the day goes on. There was a 32 mpg gust at Surfside Condos on Clearwater Beach a few minutes ago.
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On 8/12/2021 at 9:32 AM, SandySurvivor said:
I am flying into Miami today in preparation of chasing Fred after looking at the latest HWRF. Little nervous about chasing this in the Keys with potential surge issues.
Did you get chasing in? How did it go? Any pix or video clips? I guess Key West would have been the best location.
Can Tropical Cyclones Cause Earthquakes? I Think It's Worth Discussing Considering What Just Happened In Haiti
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
Fact: The Haiti earthquake was going to happen no matter what at some point. Earthquakes will always happen as the Earth's crust moves.
Fact: Hurricanes happen no matter what.
Fact: There will always be coincidences of all kinds just by mathematical chance. Coincidences do happen.
Fact: No scientific knowledge is ever complete, and it is a flaw in thinking to assume anything else. We learn new things and discoveries are made continually. What we once knew to be a fact, often turns out to be false.
Can a hurricane have influence on the timing of an earthquake? Let's ask again in 100 years.