Prospero

Is the swamp hot enough to feed a low over some land? The breeze feels good, we've had rain up here so not complaining for this year. Last year was a nightmare right now.

33 mph gust in Gulfport, FL a few minutes ago. That's more than Imelda brought which was a very nice steady breeze. I looked at NOAA and was surprised to see a lemon!

Winds are picking up here in Gulfport. This is my front yard cam: https://thegabber.com/gulfport-49th-street-south-web-cam/

This is a very handy website to find out your elevation. It appears to be right on accurate. https://whatismyelevation.com/map?lat=27.7443&lng=-82.6999

No, sir. We should eventually see a very clear and symmetrical eye as a major hurricane while favorable conditions allow. That will be different for a Gulf storm, until just before landfall.

Will an eye be elusive in this one?

If the surge is as high as it was last week with Helene, and with so much debris piled up on street after street, I assume the surge would build up during the approach to a high level sweeping up everything that is mostly small broken pieces of whatever is in those piles. If the eye passes to the south and we get strong offshore winds all of that stuff will be washed out to sea. There could be trash washing up on the beaches for a very long time.

Pinellas County issued a mandatory evacuation for long-term, healthcare facilities, and assisted living facilities in Zone A. https://thegabber.com/zone-a-evacuation-begins-milton-update-5/ The Assisted Living facility where my Dad lives in Zone B is evacuating tomorrow "to be safe."

For those with older homes, if 49% destroyed will need to rebuild to modern requirements which for many places means raising the homes up which is extremely expensive.

Helene, she came with a sea-born roar, A 6-foot surge upon the shore. Gulfport braced, the waters high, The tides rose up to kiss the sky. Yet rumors tell of Milton’s might, With fiercer winds and waves in flight! “Twice the surge!” the whispers say, As Milton eyes his stormy prey. But hear me, friends, though winds may bite, Though waves crash loud in darkest night, Thy strength, like oak, shall stand unbent— For Gulfport’s heart’s not easily spent. So huddle close and hold the line, The sun shall break, the stars shall shine! For storms will pass, as all things must, And hope returns, as sure as dust.

Here is a clip from 7:00 pm in Gulfport, Florida which was still over 5 hours and a few feet to high tide. This was the beginning for us.

The observed tide is higher than the predicted and we have a few hours to go in Pinellas County. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/cidstorm.html?stormname=Helene

Structure Fire on a block downtown Gulfport that the fire department cannot get to due to storm surge. On no! https://mygulfport.us/pc/

This will be remembered for a long time. I have concern for everybody in a storm surge vulnerable location. I'm at 15 feet in Gulfport and getting a little concerned even this high. https://clearwaterbeachcams.com/ We are in for a very nasty surprise tonight in Pinellas County.

Storm surge is way past Idalia and still several hours before high tide and we are not even getting "the push" yet. It will be pushing ten feet in Gulfport, I will bet. I have never seen a storm surge in Tampa Bay like this since I moved here in 2003.