NorthHillsWx

3 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Isn’t it still snowing there too? 

Honestly I probably won’t stay up for this one. Kinda gonna treat it as I’ll be happy if my grass is covered when I wake up if not oh well. 

2 minutes ago, jlh said:

Definitely, with the exception of the edge of the main show in NE and E NC.

You literally are on the absolute edge of the main event in Moyock. Literally could be 0 or 6” tonight. Hoping you cash in on some banding with the coastal 

Starting in the upper 40’s-50 never works very well. Just throwing that out there. Hoped we can keep the temps muted a bit 

Started with a morning low of 26.6. Already up to 40.3 with milky clouds rolling in. Hopefully they thicken up and keep temps down. 

If this event produces an inch in my backyard I’ll call it a win and enjoy another Saturday in deep winter 

Someone with better mojo than me start the obs thread, it’s time. I bombed the one winter storm thread I started last season 

If you like snow in central NC you’re down to the HRRR and RGEM for anything more than flurries but they’re both decent runs so I guess that’s what NWS is hanging their hat on 

A bit surprised with the area-wide WWA this seems more fitting for a SWS especially being it’s going to be coming at night on a weekend with temps mostly above freezing. I do not see a large area getting 1-2” as shown unless I’m missing something. This looks like scattered areas of accumulation and flizzards for everyone else

Good run for central NC on the RGEM 

Low of 21.6 high of 42.1 today 

3 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

Double barrel 1050+... Been a long time

Sent from my SM-S115DL using Tapatalk
 

Serious serious cold air up there!!

Too bad all the fun in the Carolina’s is coming at night. Definitely serious now-casting. Some people going to wake up with bare dirt and scream “bust” while others 20 miles away have 4” will be screaming “overperformer.” I think it’s boom or bust, light rates are not going to cut it with borderline BL temps like they did last week and if you get fringed by one of those bands you’re not going to get much or anything. Think summertime thunderstorms if you want to know how this will play out

The NAM is a joke

SE VA and NE NC just got NAM’d. Great run for those areas

NAM looks more expansive with precip so far coming in from NW

Miami’s days of being a powerhouse are long gone. It’s too small a school with an off campus stadium and a fan base that doesn’t care. Too many hot heads and sketchy dealings. They will never succeed in modern football 

5 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Ik this is a Weather forum….. but saw this, and couldn’t not talk Junk to the UNC fans on here…. We may not win the summer and pull 5stars like you, but we get 3/4s that come here and Develop like good Gulf low  and leave as pro prospects. Ickey was a three star HS Kid he comes, develops and will be a top 10 pick in 2 months …. Development > HS Stars “Mack is back baby” if he could develop all the talent he pulls you’d be Clemson especially in the soft city Coastal 

 

Mack is a used car salesman. Stars and ratings mean absolutely nothing on the field. Pitt won the ACC, I bet they land less 4 stars in 4 years than Clemson gets in a single cycle

Holy sleetfest 

After the model runs today my thoughts are this has devolved into a novelty event. These meso-features never work out for many and that looks like our only mode for snow with this. I think most will  see flakes but accumulation will be extremely limited and localized. Will be fun now casting but this will not be an event where general accumulation should be expected outside a few bands. On to the next one 

5 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Models are spitting out such a tiny amount of qpf I wouldn't be surprised to see most of central NC end up with nothing on the ground unless you get under a nice band. 

Agreed. Getting the feeling this will be a 0-3” forecast. 

Good luck nailing this one down. Localized variance will 100% affect the perceived outcome of how this plays out 

This setup really will be interesting tomorrow night. There likely will be localized areas that benefit from small scale features and get some decent banding. From what I’m seeing tho this will not be an area-wide score, though I think most areas see some snow. I think 0.5”-1.5” from the foothills east is a good bet but someone in there will get 3-4” where impossible to predict meso features develop. Nothings changed on that front since yesterday 

1 minute ago, eyewall said:

While we sip our Maalox this morning I finally posted some video I took during the last event:

As it stands if that lee side meso low continues to appear I will have to factor it in to my forecast update for sure. This is not an easy one.

I love the video from that heavy band. Wish we’d spent another two hours in it. Was really coming down 

HRRR also managed to not drop a flake of snow in NYC… not sure I buy anything that models selling at this range. It’s way east and weak with the LP