NorthHillsWx

Just now, Windspeed said:

13 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Where do you find these classic IR images? That's more impressive to me than the new ones. Nostalgic but shows how powerful this storm is!

Since NCEP stopped automated posting of GOES products (Himawari products are still being posted at current time) to the SSD server, weathernerds.org began to use that color scheme as an option for measuring cloudtop temperatures. And yes, I agree, AVN a valuable tool if not a more scathing one for historical comparison. Anyway, my eyes and empirical obs in general are better suited for 40 years of AVN because that is what I am used too.

Yep. I think it got brought up during Michael the appearance of storms today is more severe in some people's eyes due to the new IR images available. The AVN images are hard to beat though from a historical perspective, as you said.

1 hour ago, Windspeed said:

ADT continues to increase. Lorenzo's entire CDO includes a band of -70°C or lower cloudtops now:

Where do you find these classic IR images? That's more impressive to me than the new ones. Nostalgic but shows how powerful this storm is!

1 minute ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Recon found something close to a center -

 

Looks very broad and weak. I'd imagine they haven't sampled the strongest winds yet though. Definitely elongated NE to SW. On another note, this has been an exceptionally long-lived 35-40 kt storm!

3 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Yeah, IR impoving

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I disagree. I do not see a center under that convection. Looks like maybe the MLC. I think the LLC is broadening out and looking trough-like. Watch the visible for the real story

Holy Moly! Lorenzo has become the beast from the East! Though he won't attain the high-end winds of Dorian this is a sight to behold! A monster cane with very little threat to land, a tracking dream! Been explosive development though he's probably about maxed out. Can't take my eyes off that core. Man I would love to see a radar of that large core!

1 hour ago, NJwx85 said:

The 12z GFS keeps Karen around for about the next 4-5 days. Main reason for dissipation seems to be some Westerly shear thanks to the development of a highly amplified positively tilted trough by day 5 over the Western Atlantic extending into the Gulf.

"Some Shear" is an understatement! The circulation is already stretched and being impinged on the NW from that firehose of shear at present. The sliver of slightly favorable conditions is so small it would take near perfect of the LLC to find it that it would have any benefit to maintain strength. Said it yesterday and reinforced today, despite the increase in convection: Karen is toast

1 minute ago, Windspeed said:

Not so fast on Karen being toast. ECMWF is initialized too far north and also leads to too much latitude gain in the short term. As such, Karen is subjected to northerly to NErly mid-level shear and strong low theta-E into a weak vort. That will kill most struggling systems. However, if Karen is @ a lower latitde and finds itself SSE of the ridge axis, atmospheric conditions will be more favorable, especially if Karen manages to grow convection/MLC agajn and align its vort.

Not throwing in the towel yet until I see where Karen is located tomorrow evening with respect to the building 594 dm axis.

If you look at the visible loop, you can see the cirrus clouds streaming from north to south over the mostly exposed circulation. That indicates the already weak system is experiencing significant shear. I do not see, from the analysis and current trends, a way out for the system. I may be wrong but also without any model support strengthening the system, my money would be this is an open wave at this time tomorrow.

4 hours ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Well now that I found the source of this handy dandy site - there is a small area where Karen could move without shredding.

That is about as unfavorable look as you will see for significant development, minus Lorenzo's little window. Karen has no chance. 

I can remember, vaguely, the sound of raindrops falling in my backyard. Now, think I see a higher likelihood of this board reporting dust devils or tumble weeds then a raindrop over the next 10 days

Certainly appears to be through the worst of the shear, as noted earlier.

Any chance the center of Karen re-forms under that persistent area of deep convection where the MLC appears to be located, from the sat loop? Shear appears to be lessening and this has been the most vigorous and persistent convection of the system so far. 

We've had some dry periods but this is definitely going to be the first chance at a full-blown aerial drought in quite some time here, unfortunately. Last few years being so wet made us spoiled in regards to being above average for precipitation. Thankfully it is in the autumn after the growing season for farmers but it is DRY. Warm again today but not as bad as yesterday. Currently 83. Bring on a real cold front please!

Pretty easy to see the ridge placement on the GFS total precip map through the end of the run. Sheesh!

Well, was hoping for 40's this morning. Didn't get close. 55 low here (I think RDU got a few ticks lower). Very pleasant regardless! DRYYYYYYYYYYYYY

Hopefully a wet pattern starts soon. Not seeing much hope on the models. Keep checking back hoping for a change. Only good news is timing for duck season. Going into duck season it's going to be very little water (opposite of last year). Birds are going to have fewer places to go so hopefully my farm which has great beaver swamps that always hold water will have more birds as they will be less spread out and more prone to use continual sources of water, Looking at the positive of this!

Whew, today certainly became a fun day on the tropical front! Rapidly forming TS, New TD on it's way to becoming a hurricane, and Humberto growing and making it's push to a major while threatening Bermuda! Also plenty of development in the Eastern Pacific... It's like it's mid-September or something! 

Just like that, NHC has designated a TD. Expected to become a storm shortly. Pretty interesting to watch the rapid organization over the last 12 hours. Big rain-maker for Texas

Ready for the ccoldown! A warmer than expected 91 imby! Per ususal

Looks like we have a TD on the Texas coast, per Houston radar. Not much time till it moves ashore which is pretty lucky as it is organizing rather quickly. If it was slightly further offshore I'd say a 2007 Humberto-like system could be in the cards, very similar organization and location

8 minutes ago, griteater said:

Rainfall percent of mean over the past month

I'm surprised we're even that close to average in central NC. We did receive 1.5" from the hurricane but that feels like a century ago. Coupled with the high heat, we're in mid-summer form in terms of the yard browning out

One word sums up the upcoming and recent weather pattern quite nicely: Dry

Rode the storm out in Morehead City. Gusts peaked between 4:30-6:00 this morning. Guessing gusts in the 80-90 mph range. Lots of branches and leaves down. Lots of transformers exploding and arcing. Got that jet noise you only get over hurricane force. Genuinely doubted we’d see hurricane force winds as the lead up was so tame but we definitely had a period when sustained had to have reached that level. No clue on rain but I’d guess it’s have to be around 5 in. North eyewall was surprisingly weak. Western side brought the goods, well what was left of them anyway. Most areas do not have power. Damage very minimal and no water rise. Very thankful this thing lost the fury it had down south. We didn’t need another big hit. Oh yea, my neighborhood kept power!

11 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

If you stay  be prepared to have no utilities those last 2 days, and that's assuming you can leave, Hwy 64 might be blocked by water and trees for a few days after the storm....the other side to this is what if it pulls a Bertha or Fran or even Irene and hits a pressure drop the last 12 hrs and instead of a weakening storm you have a strengthening wind field around the core...just be prepared to be there for more than the couple of days without power etc.

We don't have AC so power isn't really an issue. Got several YETI's I can fill with ice. I'm pretty much directly across from the bridge to Manteo so getting off the island shouldn't be an issue. Wasn't planning to leave until Sunday anyway. Even with Isabel this spot was not hit hardm outside the main beach road. We own the lot behind us and can park cars there assuming any overwash makes it under this house, which would require a 6-8 foot surge and I don't see that from a storm coming from the SW instead of the east. I think southern beaches and Hatteras have much more impact.

A common subject on the main thread has been model performance but I do not think they have performed as poorly as some on the rhetoric emanating from there. Storms rounding a ridge are notoriously difficult to predict where the northward turn begins. The new GFS, in particular, was one of the first to identify a slowdown and turn before the mainland. I commented on the thread Friday that this was noticeable, despite most of the operational means still showing a track well into Florida. Once most of the models on Friday showed a stall and a turn North, details are everything but well within what I would consider the 3-day margin for error. it just mattered more because of the implications of where the turn happened. If this was in the middle of the Atlantic, no one would notice. But being the difference in 80-100 miles meant a monster storm sitting over Florida or sitting in the Bahamas this was extremely seen as poor model performance. I disagree. From Thursday night through now (Tuesday) I do not think they missed by much at all. However the margin of error was so thin and consequences at the coast so dire that it amplifies any model errors. Just my .02!

I've been disconnected for a few days here in Nags Head (got engaged!) really trying not to think about this storm messing up the second half of our vacation but we were placed under a mandatory evacuation for non-residents yesterday. Being my family owns a home, it does not pertain to us. To me this looks like the prototypical NC cutter storm. A sloppy hurricane feeling continental dry air and westerly shear being pushed ots. You can see the models all make this an extremely lopsided "half-a-cane" by the time it gets here Interacting with the trough it has a heavy rain band on it's NW side and very little activity on the south and east side. This is what I expect the storm to evolve into once it gets ejected into that NE trajectory.

Key Questions Though:

1) How much wind energy will be retained? If I was a betting man I would say this would be an 80-90 mph storm by the time it gets here. It's former state has zero bearing up this far as it will be in an entirely different set of atmospheric conditions (and it is already rapidly weakening)

2) How much rain will be generated inland? If that NW band develops I'd expect some 10 inch amounts. Flash flooding becomes a main issue

3) Will it make LF and does it matter? A lopsided system spreading out wind energy with the north and west sides being strongest will not need a proper LF to see the main impacts. 

4) How long will impacts last? Storm really looks to be honking by the time it gets here. This may be a quick 12 hour event with a 2 hour heavy blow. 

5) The money question: Should we leave? Saturday and Sunday after the storm look wonderful. My house is on the water but has weathered far worse impacts (Isabel being the worst) and this does not appear to have the same bite. I am having a tough time leaving tomorrow thinking about getting so see some nice winds and having a beautiful weekend with the beach to ourselves after the blow.

Thoughts?

Purely speculation but this storm feels like a Matthew track to me. I've been saying that since the first member started advertising the northward bend yesterday morning. If it slows down, it is going north. That's just what these things do. And I'm supposed to be in Nags Head all week so I KNOW its coming north haha