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NorthHillsWx

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Posts posted by NorthHillsWx

  1. 2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

     

    I wouldn't call it cold chasing moisture necessarily (and all the issues that come along with that). It's just that the storm is too far north. A really good run though, with the way things had been trending. 

    Definitely nice having Dr. No in your court. Last 3 systems the Euro has said “Nope” and turned out correct. Key takeaway for me is there is consensus now across most modeling (Ukie, GFS and ensembles, CMC, Euro, ICON lol) that there will be a storm around that timeframe and there is some cold air to work with. Way too far for specifics but this is about as good agreement at this range as you’re gonna get 

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  2. 21 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

    12z GFS shows a decent hit for Virginia this weekend. Not far off from being something bigger. Something to watch. 

    Mega concerns with the cold push east of the mountains with that upper level low over the Great Lakes being the fly in the ointment but good lord that model sucks. Watch it’s last 4 runs 

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  3. 17 hours ago, TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 said:

    Nah, not really. 3 years below average. 

    3 years below average but I have to say I did enjoy the snow this year. Cold before and after, finally got to shovel my driveway, and felt like a win after we thought we’d lost it the day before

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  4. 10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

    Really the only thing that intrigues me at this point are Monday morning commute implications.  Some models (GFS) shows potential for some stuff Sunday night and temperatures will dip below freezing.

    That band of heavy snow showers it keeps trying to swing through after the main system has certainly piqued my interest. As you noted, it comes through in dark with temps well below freezing and right before the commute. The main system Sunday has certainly trended to a daylight event and I think central VA is the most likely candidate for a couple inches of snow but even there it will be low impact as it will be falling in daylight with temps at most near freezing if not a hair or two above

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  5. 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

     

    I don’t want to be Debbie downer but I smell a bust on this one. After seeing the 6z gfs just kinda go poof with the qpf it kinda put the nail in the coffin for me 

    Ensembles looked better than the Op and Euro actually improved. Hard to call a 1-2” advisory snow a bust if it doesn’t amount to that much haha

  6. 4 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

    It’s pretty remarkable to see the 180 the NAM has taken from previous years. Use to be way overdone with qpf, now has to play catch-up and increase qpf up to go time with each storm.

    I’ve been thinking this all season. It’s done that literally every storm this year. Usually way too amped at long range with every low but the opposite this year

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  7. While I don’t expect anything other than token flakes in my neck of the woods, I am starting to feel more confident those in the foothills/northern triad/SW Va/central Va will see an advisory level snow, probably 1-2” 
     

    Models are *somewhat* converging on this idea, though they take different routes to get there 

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