NW_of_GYX

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah... April ... particularly early April is just perfectly when that is most likely to occur around here.

I'm not sure what your history is, but do you remember the 1997 "April Fool's Day storm" ? 

It was sunny, 64 F at 1:15 pm up at the UML weather lab, while the 12z model runs were coming in with a 4 contoured hornet stinger 500 mb closed low and attending sfc bomb just S of Cape Cod scheduled for 2 days later. 

The campus was abuzz with that type of passionate fever as though the prison gates were opened and the world was set free.   The energy and joy was palpable on that Saturday, mid day.

Monday we changed to snow, and that night 9 consecutive hours of S+ with occasional lightning all quadrants was on the Logan Metar.  My buddy lived in Wayland, MA ( about 20 mi due W of Boston along Rt 20).  He was describing the breath arresting wide-eye pause that overwhelmed him as he swung open the door to see that the 0" of snow on ground the previous evening was now 31" ...tenting over the cars to the point where they were completely and totally encased.  This is a the type of guy that doesn't really concern for weather forecast excpet here and there, mainly when it matters to him.  Not like us in here that track cumulus clouds ( haha).  

So I don't even think he knew there was a winter storm warning in place - or if so, only tacitly aware of it.   But then again, LOL, I don't think NWS was much better considering what happened.

By the following Saturday, it was 60 degrees.

I was a young lad, but remember it well. Much lower impact event in central CT but memorable 

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

You know what ... it's not out the question that we end up with a snow pack than 3 days later hover 70 F over top.  With mud gully rivers flowing out it, of course.

I have seen it be 70 F with snow still on the ground due to an March or April sudden switch. 

Firstly, sell 20+" for now.   But a 4-6" late season urinal blue cookie snow aching to melt when the storm's pulling out, knowing the next day the forecast is 59 F because even though the profiles allow for 72, no one has the ballz to forecast that over a snow pack.... that's always an fun bun for me. 

 

Denver climo 

euro came around to it at 00z. Signal is strong and getting stronger. Long way to go still but you have to like the run to run consistency. 

GFS is locked. Might be sniffing a big dog, might be sniffing glue. Either way it smells. 

Teleconnections support that period next week. For now it’s fun to look at 

19 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Good friend of mine lives in Portland. She absolutely hates snow. It's her birthday today . I sent along the map so she'll likely be my ex friend.

Hasn’t snowed in Portland since 2015 so she must be happy 

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

F it. Bring it on. I want an above average season.

Let’s go!

Some absolute weenie solutions from the GFS for next week over last couple of runs. Transfers, gets stacked and rots in the GOM. What a crazy way that would be to get Maine posters above average snowfall for the season. 

Just a stunner blue bird Colorado type ski day out there today 
 

8 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

SR  Wildcat

36 incredible.  Good  God 

Not even close at SR. I measured 14” when I left at 4pm. That’s just bad reporting on their part. 

Just achieved 20” storm total. Surpasses 3/14/18 and moves into second place at this location for me. 22” on 12/30/16 is still king….for now 

Gonna be some 2’ totals in the hills just to my north that never flipped 

8.5” last two hours, still rotting under this band 

Haven’t seen rates this crazy since I was in CT for Nemo. 16” storm total so far 

.

Absolutely insane rates right now. 5.5” last hour and puking 

Buddy at 600’ in Sweden said it never flipped there. HRRR nailed the mix line advancing as far north as the Oxford county line. 

Back to snow here 

48 minutes ago, Saguaro said:

IZG reported brief switch to sleet but it's back to snow now. Curious what things are like in Harrison and Bridgton, looks like their expected totals may be cut down by the sleet.

 

10.5” before the changeover. I was driving back from SR and the mix line was in Waterford Flat. All pingers here now. SR was probably over a foot. 

12z GFS is wild. Euro with the bump back N. 

Haven’t run the snowblower since January. Guess I need to make sure it starts 

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

So....the wet pattern continues Tips bowling ball season.

Have to laugh at the 06z GFS clown. 60” for PQI 

3 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Beware the wind. at Cannon SR was closed today wind holds

Gonna be lot of pissed off skiers around NNE on Sunday driving up all stoked thinking they’re getting a pow day just to sit on wind hold. Saturday is the day but roads will be gnarly so will keep some off the hill. Shaping up well for locals 

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Coast and the Coastal plain is the wildcard up here, Back beyond that, Its a lock for mainly all snow.

I've seen plenty of setups like this where Naples is more or less out and I am in. Tip makes a good point about the antecedent airmass. Ironically it's one of the better ones we've had all season. 

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Nam does very well with sniffing out warmth in marginal setups, I wouldn't discount it.

That’s where I’m at right now.

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Quite solid actually if its correct, A lot of those looks like the 12z RGEM.

Euro/Canadians vs Nam/GFS. 

9 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

F that. you're too generous. If we got another 12" that would put us at 52" seasonal. the way this winter ran, I can't give it more than D-. 

With the decent January stretch we had here it’s hard for me to go D-. Right now it’s a D but if this next system ends up producing I might go C-. We’ll need double digits for me to consider though