ORH_wxman

You can see how compact the mid-level centers were....and we knew that based on their track that any dryslot would have a very hard time penetrating far past the south coast. You could clearly see it get swallowed up very quickly on this series of radar loops. I remember not being worried about it at all but some were freaking out, lol.

That 500mb pattern is awesome. The vortmax strength was the highest I had seen in a winter storm since 12/9/05.

Right they have to check the building construction too. That's what led to the controversy over the Worcester tornado in 1953 (I started a thread on it in the NE subforum). If the building codes are in question, then what looks like F5 damage might not necessarily be. Healthy trees being snapped off fairly relatively low on the trunk tends to be a good indicator too.

Agreed, but this is not a surprise. I think most people would see that. We are driven mostly by curiosity. Its great to try and save lives...and that is a big plus with severe storm research....but in the end, its kind of a fake line. Tornadoes are cool, quite interesting, and relatively little is known about them, so people study them. But potentially saving lives is a nice addition to that field. I will potentially save lives by forecasting a snowstorm more accurately and trying to advance the techniques of forecasting them, but I was interested in the field because I love the power of snowstorms and like heavy snow rates. I think people should go after what they are interested in. We aren't long on this earth, so go for it.

You are a lot more noble than I am to humanity. I went into meteorology (and stuck with it) because I love snowflakes piling up at a rapid pace. I will admit for the purpose of this thread that meteorology is not the majority of my income though.

Here is my detailed recount of the March 4-6, 2001debacle. There's a lot of "stories" behind it. First off, almost all guidance was going for a monster Mid-Atlantic HECS about 96-108 hours out. Back then the time range beyond 96h meant very little...but models actually did have it further out than that. Only a few model went further. The UKMET, ECMWF and the MRF (the extension of the AVN which is now the GFS all in one package) all called for it. By the time we got to 84 hours out, all models showed it still...basically 2-4 feet for DC-NYC with Boston getting fringed....except the old ETA-x....the old ETA went to 60 hours, but the "ETA-x" was the ETA to 84h which eventually became the NAM (run under the ETA) to 84 hours but is now run under the WRF and not the ETA anymore...ETA has been retired from operational use, only used in the SREF now. That run of the ETA-x had the storm much further north and crushing New England while limiting the snow in the Mid-Atlantic. I believe this was Friday at 12z. Nobody took it seriously as it was the ETA extended beyond its already 60h limit. The next run at 00z Friday night, the ETA-x showed it again, but the other models held serve....the ECMWF didn't run at 00z back then...only at 12z, so its solution was non-existent. It was the best model back then too like recent years. We were now at 72h out or closer. The 12z runs came out on Saturday morning and they shifted north, limiting the snow for DC (probably from 2-3 feet to about 1-2 feet), but from Wilmington DE northward it was still monstrous except the UKMET shifted slightly north of that, to Philly and northward. A little side note. The AVN had performed absolutely brilliantly in the other big east coast storm on December 30, 2000 and also on the December 3, 2000 North Carolina/Virginia bust. The ETA hadbeen way too bullish and far west in both events while the AVN schooled it. So a lot of attention and credence was being given the AVN. That was a big factor in the forecast IMHO. After those Saturday morning runs at 12z (while the ETA showed a huge hit north again at 48-60h now in the operational run)...the forecast was still for a monster M.A. hit. The 12z ECMWF wouldn't come out until around 8pm that evening. It used to come around at that time back then. As 8pm rolled around, the ECMWF all of the sudden jumped way north and agreed with the ETA solution. But most forecasters disregarded it as it had been pretty steadfast before (maybe a burp run?) and the AVN was holding really steady and it had done so well on East Coast storms that winter. By Saturday night, the GGEM started to go north, the AVN held serve once again (having been the model of choice all winter), the ETA went north again taking Philly and nearly NYC out of the huge snow and hammering New England/Boston with a storm like Feb 1978. UKMET I don't recall what happened, but I know the forecast stuck close to the AVN. Again there was no 00z ECMWF run back then. Only 12z. By 12z Sunday morning just 24h before the event, the AVN once again gave a monster hit to the mid-atlantic except it shifted a bit north...it was mostly Philly northward. The ETA gave New England a huge HECS again, the GGEM finally went well north...and so did the UKMET. The ECMWF would have to wait until 8pm as usual. Most forecaster were trusting the AVN because it had served them well that winter after the obscene ETA busts and the AVN had nailed two major east coast storms. When 8pm came in, the writing was on the wall if there was any doubt left. It was way north and took Philly and possibly even NYC out fo the big snows, though NYC was still on the line. The forecasts started being revived when the 00z AVN came in late that Sunday night and it finally jumped north, but still not far enough....it still gave big snows to Philly (but not historic totals) and historic totals to NYC. I think this is when most operational forecasters knew something was terribly wrong. You have to remember it was so hard to trust any model that winter and the AVN was the best until that point. That was the first storm that I recall Dave Tolleris (whether you like him or not) came up with the old "EE rule"...when the ETA and ECMWF (both start with "E") agree, you don't go against them. I was lurking on ne.weather back then. When the EC came north to agree with the ETA back on Saturday, he said the M.A. was cooked and got a lot of crap for it on the boards as you can imagine. That's just my personal recollection of all of that storm. I don't claim for all of it to be 100% accurate, but I usually remember things very vividly, so I think at least most of it is right. There was a lot of controversy and talk amongst the weather people both on ne.weather and the NWS back then. It ended up being a huge interior New England and NY State HECS. Even the models at the last second kind of busted at Boston...only getting 10" while they were forecasted for double that...but the suburbs got all the snow. Very incredible storm both from a forecasting standpoint and also as a student observer back then when I first learning a lot of the intricacies of forecasting and models.

You probably got similar to what I did in 2009. It was a drier snow and no elevation dependency.

Oh wow, I didn't even catch the year...I was thinking of 1/18/10...not 1/18/09....but yeah 1/18/09 did produce two separate storms too....they were pretty good. In the 2009 events, I totaled 11" I think....in the 2010 MLK 2 punch setup, I totaled a bit shy of 8". Amazing that the dates matched up exactly.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NARR/2010/us0118.php

That was the MLK event.,..but it was actually 2 events listed on 2 separate PNS reports....you probably had like 9" total or so (6" from event #1) . I had around 7-8" total.

It wasn't pure OES but there was definite ocean enchancement....the norlun trough of February 19, 1993....it hit Chatham with 20" of snow...and most of the Cape had over a foot.

We have a lot to relive in this thread since 1992....starting with that Dec '92 storm. We've certainly been in a good streak for great events. Though I would say maybe we are starting to get due for another one. We really haven't had an amazing winter event since 12/9/05. We had some fun events in '07-'08 and '08-'09...but nothing truly remarkable unless you lived where I was and the rest of the relatively small area that was absolutely demolished in the December 2008 ice storm.

Indeed he is, already made a few posts. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/user/904-typhoon-tip/

Air Florida

That same storm actually hit CT pretty hard. You can see some bulleyes over 20" on the map there and then a much larger area of 20"+ covering the South Shore and parts of the Cape. Thats the map that is in the Kevin Preacher pic.

The Turkey and potatoes always taste better when theres snow on the ground.

That was a very good year for the valley in CT...all the overrunning events muted any downslope for them. BDL broke 90" didn't they? Even if they were inflating back then, still a huge year.

What was good about 1971? That had a great Thanksgiving storm. '61, '75, and '97 all had sizeable snowstorms right before Christmas.

The deep snow pack was 1996. Probably after the blizzard of '96. Even in Raynham there was probably over a foot of snow on the groun dbefore the blizzard of '96 and then you probably had over 20" in that storm on top of it. The storm where the temp rose obscenely was probably Jan 27-28, 1994. I remember we were near 0F on the 27th and then by the morning of the 28th we hit 50F. We did get a lot of icing before the temp spiked up though from what I remember.

The only year I can think of is maybe you got some OES with the December 2000 cold outbreak just before Xmas. Then you go back to 1998 and 1995...not sure if you had a white Christmas in 1989. 2004 was a day late in coming in. I'll have to look for my White Christmas snow probability map I have somewhere on the comp.

I think you had a white christmas down there in 1995 too. Was 2009 the first White Xmas down there of this decade?

That was horrific....we got zippo from that one but only 10-15 miles SE they had like an inch. While it was only an inch, it was enough for a white Christmas. I hate it when we don't get a white Christmas.

Of course I have the reverse memory for 1988-1989 when we first moved back here. Cape Cod kept getting snow and it would partly sunny here.

When Kevin and I walked into a bar on Chatham during the Nov 2007 Noel chase, they were still talking about 12/9/05...they said something "yeah but this will be nothing like December a couple years ago" or something. We asked them to describe it and they said the wind went from just a bit breezy to all hell breaking loose...all of the sudden they heard trees snapping, light posts falling over and piece of roofing getting torn off. It didn't last that long, it was over in 2 or 3 minutes, but it was so intense.

Yeah, thats why I said get a colder version of Dec 2008 and it could really get ugly....where most people get hit hard...then follow it with an arctic outbreak. Ugly scenario to think about.