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Stormfly

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Posts posted by Stormfly

  1. On 9/14/2020 at 9:31 AM, frd said:

     

    JMA for next 3 months.

    If the Nina's most significant  measured drop occurs in the period late October to early December,  with a possible lag  effect , December could indeed be a cold month in the East. Followed by the real winter pattern of warmth dependent on other factors of course.   

    Still feel the positioning on the High pressure in the Pacific will be the driver, and any appearence of HL blocking. GLoSea mean may indeed be skewed. Also as HM stated the model may have sniffed out the extreme + IOD last winter as the driver to little if any NAO and HL blocking during the 19=20 winter. This year is the IOD is opposite,  so what to expect is uncertain in my opinion. 

    As mentioned previously,  the poleward High and positioning, in a Nina with a + QBO as Griteater mentioned may have a role in our weather. The sample size has to be considered. 

     

     

     

    82-83 would be OK with me!

    Cold December with snow, record Jan warmth and Blockbuster storm in Feb.

    Summer of '83 also featured high severe level events.

    Some expecting quarterly snowpack need to move.  Just a few hour drive northwesterly should do.  Otherwise Labrador or Longyearbyen will have to suffice! ;)

    • Haha 1
  2. We need some tropical to get this smoke out of here!

    At least it's high and not reducing ground level air quality.  I remember the fires in Canada back in '02 that not only turned the sky here brown but also got down to ground level.  I remember being at the exhibitors hall in Timonium and running outside because there was smoke around the overhead lighting and that familiar smell reminiscent of a building fire.

    The sun was quite obscured this AM too!

     

    milkysun.png

    • Like 1
  3. 22 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

    Whenever I think of "Sally" I keep picturing Sally Field.

    She must be a bigger part of my psyche than I thought.

    She was cute in Smokey & The Bandit! :)

    Anyone notice that water tower looked perfectly fine in Cameron?  Imagine what the winds were like up there?

    I knew a person and I'm  rather strange but he was 145% compared to me!  Anyhow, he lived in a water tower converted to a home.  I know without the ballast of having all that water it's probably not as structurally sound but say it could handle CAT5 winds.  Debris isn't an issue, as the outer shell is 5/8" mild steel which would laugh at a 9mm bullet.  But the creaking and roar would probably be quite unnerving.  I dunno, I'm really calm in precarious situations and only felt like I was going to bite the big one a few times in my life.  That may be one.  But living to tell about it.  And as long as the suction on the toilet isn't too strong during the strongest eyewall encounter, it may even be fun! ;)

     

  4. 3 hours ago, CAPE said:

    More like hell lol. When I drive by there on the way home later today, that will probably be a few shallow puddles in the yard. That only happens when it rains excessively in a short time period.

    For the bitten ones, indeed.

    Been dealing with them for decades.  It's amazing how little standing water is needed for those SOBs to multiply.
    Just a tire left outside can breed an army of those bloodsuckers in short order.

  5. 36 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

    How ironic would it be to have a D1 ENH and 10% tor, but we eind up with some generic tstorm line this afternoon in like central VA?

    In this region replace ironic with typical.  These outlooks bust more often then winter events in this area.  Which is good and bad.  Bad being that (non weather) peeps are so accustomed to warnings that when a legitimate warning (and absolutely necessary action to protect life/property) occurs, no one will take it seriously.  Boy meet wolf. ;)

    I wouldn't be surprised if there is less activity today then yesterday.  Does it mean we should let our guard down?  NEVER!

    No doubt with soundings someone will score today, just don't expect it to be a widespread outbreak.

    EDIT:  10% TOR, especially our area, is nothing to sneeze at! Don't forget to wear a mask! ;)

    • Weenie 1
  6. 404, severe not found. ;)  We were in a yellow box.

    Torrential downpours, max wind 18 mph, some lightning and thunder.  Heavy thundershower is what we call it.

    Tomorrow is the 3rd ENH for this area so far this year?  Can you call drizzle and fog enhanced?  Oh the moss is growing on three sides of our barn.  Now that is definitely enhanced! :)

    • Haha 1
  7. 4 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

    I need everybody in D.C and the Delmarva to buy an industrial fan and strap it to a helicopter, and turn them all on at once so we can get a D2 MOD.

    Here's my contribution!

    And look at that, some showers showing up now with maybe a bit of Zeus'ing going on! ;)

    Speaking of fans, we do have a bigass fan, 18' in the main hangar.  Had to run it nearly WOT due to humidity!

     

    rwenstromhas.jpg

    • Like 1
  8. 53 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

    This watch definitely isn’t warranted for most of the area. Big time bust on that enhanced risk today

    Figured as much.  We get about two ENH a year and this is our second.

    All they'd have to do is move MD down to the gulf, Laura would fall apart faster than a Harbor Freight vacuum cleaner! :)

    • Haha 1
  9. 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

    Any storm is a woo storm. Lightning and thunder make most of us pretty happy. The odds of getting minivan sized hail and derecho winds are like 1 in 398375475973498579345 around here. 

    And that's a GOOD thing!

    Being in a storm heading to shelter while your house is coming apart is terrifying.

    And going in the attic afterward and it looks like you have a dozen skylights but they are holes from giant hail...

    Granted I was 12 when that happened but I remember it well.  All the insurance adjusters, contractors, et al.

    And my parents complaining about higher insurance premiums!  Now they live in FL and (still) complain when it goes up.  LOL

     

    In these parts it seems we do get legit severe but you have to be in the bullseye.

  10. 17 hours ago, yoda said:

    Hope we will see some type of this again soon...

     

    Did someone say Jonas?

    I enjoyed that storm, earliest lock in memory and it just snowed its ass off!

    I'd rank it only behind 1996 because of the second storm after that overperformed. 

    Of course overall, best winter by far was 09-10.  Just don't see that around this area.  Have to head up to the lakes for that. ;)

     

    • Like 3
    • Sad 1
  11. This expected warmth and expectation of a snow less winter may be just what snow lovers want.

    After all, it seems when we expect the worst (or the best) the exact opposite occurs.

    In any case, our plows and blowers are always ready for whatever may come this way.

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