TheRegionRat

Went up indeed. I'm optimistic that this event will be on the top end of the forecasts.

I'm a bit bummed. My NWS forecast has 3-7. Seems a bit low. SREF plumes for Gary are pointing to almost 10". The NAM versions are on the lower end of the spectrum.

Isn't that the truth! So is the block that sheared the last storm, the same block that keeps this low from cutting west? A quick aside, I'm using the term block because it was tossed about a lot the past few days. It may not be the correct terminology.

Not much snow here for the event. Maybe three inches? Might be generous. It has become a veritable skating rink overnight.

My forecast from LOT has ticked up. Is now 4-10 by tomorrow evening. We'll see what lake influences this neck of the woods receives.

Where is the energy for the storm, and has it been sampled? The LOT AFD says it's coming ashore this morning. Fully sampled for the 12Zmodel suite?

Would prefer not be in the bullseye this far out. This will bounce around a bit. I remember the old "Northwest shift"days all too well.

I'm really digging that track. What ratios are expected? Lower at first, higher as the storm moves along? Any lake enhancement/effect?

Bone thrown this morning in the LOT AFD regarding a pattern change. The forecast for the later half of the period, which encompasses the weekend through early next week, continues to be dry with seasonal temperatures. However, there are signs that as we head into the middle to end of next week that the upper level pattern may begin to transition to a more active northwesterly flow pattern across the central CONUS. This could thus result in some colder weather and better chances for precipitation beyond the current forecast period.

I'm in East Chicago, maybe 10 minutes from Gary Airport. As the crow flies, three miles.

Run of the mill cold rain now. Plenty of slush on the streets. Nothing is icing up.

I had a nice burst of snow. Started 45 minutes ago, and ended around 11AM. Dusted the ground.

Wife and I drove through Beverley Shores and Michigan City through Michiana Shores a few weeks ago. The road through Beverley Shores is closed as you enter La Porte County. The rest of the lakeshore roads were okay. Unfortunately, it will be dark when I finish work tomorrow, otherwise we would take a quick trip to Whiting.

Is the NAM depicting a better phase than the European models? This event is only 36 hours out for my neck of woods. Both pieces of energy are over land now. I'm curious as to why there are such big differences.

Only around 60 more model runs before the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat.

Fine snow falling. Cleaned off the satellite dish once. Looking forward to a trip tomorrow to Whiting and then Beverly Shores to see the wave action. Good week for vacation.

Are there significant timing differences between the models?

I'm optimistic. We will keep the ground covered another week.