JTrout

It's funny because I agree with this, then if we get 1/4-1/2 of freezing rain I will regret it on Wed when I still don't have power. Using a Mr. Heater Buddy hooked up to 20lb propane tank heating my house and having my wife, little girl, dog, and cats all in the living room with the heater because every other room will be 40 degrees haha. But....it will be one way to start a snowpack if tonight performs and we get an early thump, so......worth it???? haha

Yep

Only two frames of snow through your area on that run, has to be sleet and crap. 1 foot in 6 hours would be epic.

Results are not good, the low is further south and east though at 84hrs.... Temps hit 50 in LSV

I would be looking at 8 inches of snow, couple inches of sleet probably, then a nice 1 inch coating of freezing rain, then a low of 8 monday morning. Sounds fun.......

The Icon shows 2-3 inches of precip over 2/3's of the state with freezing temps. That would be crazy

Good for our snow pack, bad if you like electricity, driving on roads, etc

ohhh myy! I just looked at the 2M air temps.

Icon holds on to the Snow for another frame at 18z compared to 12z. Colder overall!

We are rooting for something like the NAM, weaker L scooting across the CONUS. The weaker it is, the less it consolidates and slows down. This allows it to get in front of the northern piece. Less it interacts the better/ colder/ snowier/ etc.

Looks like roughly the same idea....

It's not all that crazy I guess, earlier in the week the second piece of energy riding up idea was present, also check out the Euro low in the same time frame. Really elongated and stretched. I could see that having two pieces of energy with a little shift. Either way, its snowier at the beginning for everyone, so that's a plus! Hopefully that second wave rides up and everyone gets a second batch to get everyone a foot+. On second thought, it's the NAM at 84 hrs.

sorry 6-8", forgot about the thurs night event.

18Z NAM has almost all of PA snow for the first thump 7-10 inches statewide, then at the 84hr frame has the low down in NC lurking for round 2?

crankyweatherguy‏ @crankywxguy 59m59 minutes ago crankyweatherguy Retweeted Spencer Beers I don't pay any attention to that back and forth model jumping critique. Creating trends that don't exist except in the construct of the modeling flip flops. If you want to sniff model trends, start with 0z models tonight onward, but maybe even 12z tomorrow as 1st anchor forward. crankyweatherguy added, Spencer Beers @beers56 Replying to @crankywxguy Cranky any merit in the south trend being disconnected from the phase D E. Horst, MU WIC‏ @MUweather FollowingFollowing @MUweather More Replying to @crankywxguy Wise words, grasshopper! 7:09 AM - 16 Jan 2019 I always like to read Cranky's stuff and obviously trust Horst. Does anyone know if Cranky was a student of his or anything? I also posted this because its relevance to the emotions of model run to model run right now, when the experts aren't really taking anything seriously till tomorrow.

12z Icon gives LSV three frames of front end snow before the switch to crap. More like yesterdays early runs. NAM at 84 looks to give a good front end thump as well.

I am new, so I must obey what you guys say, so.....Mr. Anus it is for now..I guess?

Very true Nut, may I call you Nut? haha. Everyone should look through the models. CMC cuts the Thur/Fri system way north= we get a crap weekend storm. GFS has the Thur/Fri system running through southern pa=mixed bag south/northern guys do well still. ICON has the Thur/Fri system running below the maxon dixon=good weekend snow results. Our fate will be decided with the Thur/Fri system.

I work in the car business. (Sales) This tells you guys two things about myself. I have a lot of free time on my hands, while I "work" and I love snow. I say this because...when it snows, I have to help clear 100's of cars of it! Not fun, but I still root for every flake of snow, every time!!

A-men. I am all about snow pack!! Get's me through periods with nothing to track. Track the cold/ hoping it doesn't get too warm and slowly watch my precious yard snow melt.

I am a positive person, so at this point, because we are still 5/6 days out for the weekend storm. Some simplicity is kind of refreshing compared to what we have been dealing with. Also, if the Thurs/Fri system doesn't pan out too well, us southern folks shouldn't get tooooo excited for the weekend system. Or be prepared for a mixed bag of precip.

Interesting discussion on our next two storms I was reading this morning. Both systems are singular systems. No phasing or anything needed. This at least increases the likelihood of a "hit" just a matter of precip types based on the ultimate storm locations. Basically we should watch where storm one(thur/fri) goes, as a tracer for the "big one" storm two. A clipper followed by a potentially large storm riding a gradient along the east coast. Good set up for potentially high precip values. Thurs night isn't too far away. So if the discussion of the clipper track is correct, we should have a little more confidence on how central pa is going to make out with confidence on friday morning. I am hoping for a stronger/south of the mason dixon line storm for thurs night. As I have also been told a stronger storm one will lower heights out of Canada and increase our big snowstorm potential for the weekend. Keep the weekend storm from cutting west or through us. Thoughts? We usually don't have a tracer system before a good looking storm. Again, thoughts, opinions, does that seem right? Also, this "clipper" everyone is talking about, doesn't look like a traditional clipper for Thur/Fri?

Alright I just figured out the quoting thing. No need to copy and paste. I love winter weather the most, absolutely, but I find myself rooting severe weather of most kinds in the "off" season. This is a hobby for me, gives me something to be excited about. Age doesn't matter for this hobby! For the guys close by(working or home) awesome, always nice to be hoping for a good hit close by.

Hi Josh and welcome. I just came back myself after a 13 year hiatus (re: lived in Florida). Not much has changed since I left as to the "other forum". I live exactly one half mile from the Maryland line and I choose to post here. It is funny how a lot of us have similar stories about wives and friends thinking we are different because we enjoy weather. I have noticed that many of the people like this are between 40 and 70 so I think it has something to do with the prevalence of NOAA weather radios and news stations that focused on weather, like KYW in Philly, during the 70's and 80's. Stuff like that got a lot of people addicted...and without easy access to "the internet" back then. It somehow seemed to form this cult of weather followers who all take it out on the internet now. I am sure there were weather nuts before this but without the internet to bring them together it did not grow to the level that it has now. Thanks! I am 29, my dad(62) got me into it. Over the past couple years(just got a smartphone a month ago) I have been educating him on the online resources for weather. He is coming along...haha

Welcome to our forum, Josh! Please feel free to post any time. We need more frequent conversation around here anyway. At the very least, when we get a good storm, like maybe this upcoming weekend, we usually start a separate thread for obs posting. I would encourage you to post your storm obs as we all like to keep tabs on how everyone else is doing. --Stephen Thanks, I will definitely give obs updates. I will try and post useful/educated info when I can. Mostly info from good sources, that maybe wasn't already discussed. With that said, because I want to post relevant info. I use NWS State College discussions, Horst, Bobby Martrich, Cranky, Bernie Rayno, and a couple other folks. Who do you guys trust the most and put the most weight on their thoughts?