JTrout

Got a lot of the crew in PA! 

1 hour ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

Yep. And in the spring/summer, TOR warnings are usually too little, too late. Near impossible to see EF0/EF1 couplets at 7k' AGL

First night in my current house, had a TOR pass within 2 miles. Had no idea until I went to lowes the following morning and saw damage.

Yep same deal in the summer. Two of the most severe weather fatality situations and you can’t see it. Squalls in the winter, tornadoes in the summer. WGALs Doppler has been down for years. It’s a shame 

1 minute ago, NeffsvilleWx said:

I hate NWS radar coverage (or lack thereof) for Lancaster/York. Always impossible to tell whether precip is weakening as it approaches, or if it's just a result of radar range/beam height. And comparing to WGAL's site is difficult -- different scales.

Agreed, Horst actually responded to me on twitter about this. Just something we have to deal with. Radar beam/height isn't sufficient for reaching Lancaster well, really struggles with squalls especially. 

38 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

seeing him bullish for 12-18 in my area, gives me hope.  

Same, he has me in the 12-18. I wouldn’t bet against the guy, makes me feel better. 

14 minutes ago, FHS said:

ITS SMELLS OF OZONE OUTSIDE LIKE CRAZY ON THIS WONDERFUL MORNING  IF YOU KNOW WHAT IT SMELL LIKE, SO YOU KNOW  ITS EITHER GOING TO SNOW  OR ITS SINGLE DIGITS  COLD (THE OTHER TIME WE ALL CAN SMELL OZONE) . HAVE A GREAT DAY HOMIES . OFF TO BAKE MY VERY MAGICAL HECS COOKIES TO KEEP ME GOING THE DISTANCE. 

Agree on the smell! Nothing sweeter 

Good luck today everybody!! Rare event for 12+ snow for maybe 2/3 of the state. 

Lancaster show 2 inches to the south and almost 30 at the NW tip. Some gradient on the nam 3k....geez. 30 mile shift and it’s boom or bust for my county if this verified.  

1 minute ago, paweather said:

I actually did say I would be up all night tomorrow so I guess there is one more night. Thanks for correcting me!

Just checking haha. 

3 minutes ago, paweather said:

My last night of staying up after 1am. CHEERS, everyone. Lets do this. 

Hold on, you are saying you won’t be up all night tomorrow for the actual storm? That’s crazy talk after the past week. 

3 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I have a cabin in gaines. Where you at?

My wifes family has a cabin in Wellsboro, right at the start of the canyon in Darling Run(1/2 mile off 6). We usually do one or two trips a year spring and summer. 

1 minute ago, Atomixwx said:

@canderson's wife is usually too busy in the little section beneath my computer desk to really notice. 

You win the wife response contest. hahaha 

Last night my 4 yr old daughter woke me up twice, once to pee and once with a nose bleed. I blamed her for being tired this morning.  Wife didn't think that was funny. Staying up for the Euro or waking up at 3am to check the 12z runs may have had something to do with it the last 5 days. 

How many of your spouses/significant others are mad at you at this point already? I think after 10 years my wife maybe understands 10% of my weather obsession.  

NAM looking good boys!!!

All I learned tonight is the banding is going to be intense somewhere in PA. Going to make somebody really happy. 

Not sure how you guys feel about the ABC27 mets but they almost have the whole state in 14-20. I feel like they are usually more conservative. 

5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

look at se lanco 4-6'' dot and nw side 20+

can anyone understand why I'm a wee bit on edge??
 

I feel a little better about being in the very northwestern tip of of Lancaster. I still like our spot better then western counties. We will be in the heavy precip one way or the other...thump/sleet/thump would be fine. Still nervous for sure though. 

8 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

as i stated earlier, it would need to be aoa 16-18:1

 

Sorry the present storm I meant. 

2 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

If I still worked there I could tell you. I actually was supposed to work that shift but called my boss to tell him that morning there was already 5" of snow on the ground lol. Next day couldnt go in either because they couldnt plow the streets. Took them 2 days to get the city back to normal, lancaster that is and they got more NW of us.

 

I would be impressed if we see more than 12:1 during the height of the storm for areas around harrisburg. Most should see the average 10:1 and then maybe getting better as the colder air continues to filter in. I say maybe 14:1 on the outskirts to help with totals otherwise more than that is not impossible but probably unlikely.

Thanks, my follow up was going to be if someone had a semi educated guess with this storm specifically? 

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

Looks like the Euro outputs 2.2" qpf for MDT, and it's all snow. 

Hold me. 

For prospective, obviously a completely different storm, colder, higher ratios etc. I just heard somewhere(maybe posted here) that the Jan 2016 storm produced the 30" at MDT with less then 2" of QPf.  Is that true? Anyone really good at remembering ratios from specific storms? 

3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Euro gets a few sleet pellet up to Rt. 30 in York/Lancaster counties. Otherwise it's another solid run for everyone. Looks like a solid 8" - 12" event for many south of Rt. 22 (conservative thinking).

I think I would prefer the risk of the higher qpf shown by the euro and cmc(around the lsv) then the GFS. The risk for sleet is around but the potential for the 18-24" is worth it. 

Euro shellacs most everyone again. 

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

And, we remember and criticize freely when they're wrong, but don't acknowledge and appreciate the times (which is more often than not) they are right. Hey, I work for a large food manufacturer...the only times when we hear from customers is when we got it wrong...

I sell cars at Faulkner Chevy, well aware of customers being unhappy....selling anything mechanical is asking for someone to be unhappy. Especially big ticket repairs. 

5 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Its a valid perspective, but on the other side of the challenge is creating public awareness to the POTENTIAL...as there is a rather large difference in 8" vs 18''.

They are rarely bullish, so when they are honking, ya gotta listen imo.  Its really a no win proposition for them (as we all know), but I could see them getting roasted just as bad for "forgetting a 1 in front of the 8".  Its just the way society is unfortunately.

I definitely understand, their job is public safety in regards to informing people of potential weather. If they didn't post a tornado warning and a tornado occurred killing people, they would get roasted. If it doesn't happen, the worst people do is hide in the basement for a little while. People will grumble either way, have to play it safe. Crippling snow storms are rare, and so fun for us. Makes me nervous in a good way. 

I think I would be more comfortable with a 4-8 forecast and get surprised in the 24 hrs leading up to the storm. Rather then NOAA being this bullish. A vast majority are in their safe zone for 12-24 inches.  Crazy