JTrout

3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said:

Is Horst waffling to a colder scenario?  

His verbiage leaves the door open, not locked in yet. 

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I'm going to lay this out there and say that with so many storms in the past there is a clear north trend in the days proceeding it. Often, just before onset there is a step back. Let's will this bad boy a little bit further south on tomorrow's guidance.  (weenie handbook rule #6547) 

At the casino I like to play roulette, you should never bet against a run of red or black. What do I do? Bet against the trend...........I don't normally win. haha  However, I am in your camp!!!! 

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

Lol.  The verbiage of the watch is fairly dramatic especially when it limits the mention of plain rain at least so far.

PAZ036-056>059-063>066-180345- /O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 240 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow followed by heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches in higher elevations possible. Ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Lower Susquehanna Valley. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Significant reductions in visibility are possible.

Maybe they are putting all their marbles on the ICON haha. 

Just now, Superstorm said:

Kind of surprised for Lancaster County.


.

1/4 ice potential. 

Also the NW 1/3 could be nasty and bottom SE not so much. I think they have to side with the worse half

Just now, Atomixwx said:

Also, I turned down a job at AccuWeather.com a couple years back. How dumb am I?

Can't speak to that, new to posting on here, so I can't call anyone names yet. haha. 

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Joe was still around up until just a year or two ago I believe, he used to be one of the featured bloggers. He was on radio stations down here as well. And at least for a time he posted on the Eastern US weather forums. (the one that proceeded this one) Joe was originally from New England I believe but made his home in State College area. 

Makes sense, I didn't discover the featured guys till last year. I always thought accuweather was a plain old national weather service up until then. 

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

I used to love Accu Weather, especially Joe Lundberg. Always thought he was really accurate and seemed to distance himself from the hypsters around him on there. 

I am not familiar with him, when was he active in the weather game or is he still? I like Bernie because he is a PA native and doesn't typically look at surface maps when he does his analysis, just the upper air maps.  I always walk away feeling like I understand a little bit. haha

5 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

you have a link to bernie?

https://twitter.com/AccuRayno

Usually these are better, he is sick and looks like he is using his phone, it's a mess, he has a hand drawn snow contour map in this one haha. He is a PA native though so I always listen to what he has to say.

He works for accuweather and uses their maps, but then says what he really thinks since it is twitter. 

Not sure how you guys feel about Bernie Rayno and his crew, but I just watched his periscope. Him and his boss said they don't see this thing shifting north, most likely south if anything, then followed that with"but it's weather so it could go either way or anything can happen" something to that extent haha. 

My new hope for LSV folks(myself included), 2 inches tonight, 2-4 Sat, a lot of sleet, light glaze, avoid 6 hours of pouring rain at 45 degrees. Decent little snow pack for the week to look at. Until a rainstorm on Thursday......?

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

Don't forget some of that is from tonight. 

Right, 0-4 inches then haha

Lancaster country has ten snowfall contours running through it. 1-6 inch spread on the Euro. Not feeling good for the LSV. Overall the Europeans kept us in the game for 0z tonight though.....barely. 

1 minute ago, daxx said:

No miracle on the Euro.  Snow to ice then rain for lsv.  More as you go north and west.  Head to the cabin Nut they get slammed up that way.

Is it on par with 0z or worse? I just looked at the panels and it seems like the timing moved up ,so I cant tell if the placement is better or worse on the 24hr panels. 

1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

What we really need is a high pressure to magically appear in South Eastern Canada and make the next Low decide to lateral the ball off to the South and East coast instead of bumping bellies with the high. 

 

 

I am in, lets have it do that. haha

1 minute ago, bubbler86 said:

It is so weak it basically washes out but 700MB maps show it going south of us through southern VA and eventually "re-energizing", if you can call it that, when it gets into the Atlantic. 

 

 

So maybe because it's so weak of a signal, no real weight should be put on the whole "follow that L, the weekend storm will follow"?  I was on that train early this week too, but the discussion was also to watch it's strength, a stronger thurs night storm south, would be a good sign. 

4 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I can’t read that forum. They get what seems like a major or historic storm every year and then whine they got 18 instead of 28.

 

meanwhile I’m sitting here with one 10 inch storm in the last 8 years lol.

Didn't you get like 28 days of measurable snow a couple years back, my memory is terrible but that would be a pretty good consolation prize. Although I love the big snows, that would be pretty cool as well. Correct me if it wasn't as exciting as I may think. 

Can anyone more experienced, smarter, etc tell me where this evenings little storm is going to be centered as it passes by. I can't really tell.  I would like to go back to the theory of atmospheric memory, if this is passing to the south of PA, our weekend storm will pass to the south. We talked about it earlier this week. Just wondering if it is still a meaningful thought? I was reading Cranky, he was talking about it earlier this week, then it was brought up here. Just trying to have some hope not based from the modeling of the current situation on the 12z runs. If the L is not to our south tonight....please don't respond, it will just depress me further. 

4 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

 

I guess it depends how that L got to that spot. Icon has it in that general area too....good front thump on that model. GFS, CMC get it there too....not a good result for most. NAM kinda in between them. 

Just now, bubbler86 said:

The North American models shut this forum down.   I agree if our European Allies do not come through it is cricket time.  (Until the 18Z name, LOL).

Mid Atlantic forum is crickets(compared to storm mode times) for a big storm incoming, obviously because it looks like a pure soaker for them. LSV folks could be next.......

Really hoping the Euro is on our side. The 12z runs today are the first set we should really start to put a lot of weight on. Energy just coming onto the west coast. If we lose the Euro.......I will start to lose a little hope.  #Team Europe

6 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

I thought I heard 16F.


.

Either way, they would struggles for 2 days if the all frozen of some variety, scenario plays out for south/central pa. Icon showed lows of -5 on Tuesday night all the way down in the LSV.

Just now, pasnownut said:

I burn 4-5qds of wood every winter #woodstove

Ice skate to Akron and you can warm your tootsies by the stove.  Heck i'll even pour you a shot of whiskey to get your blood flowing again.

I scrapped my wood stove in the basement this year($35 bucks for 400lbs), it was for emergencies only type of thing. Planning on doing gas stove for ease of use next year....hoping this winter wouldn't cause a problem.... I appreciate the ice skating over invite haha

Does anyone know what temperature the typical road salt they use becomes ineffective? 

1 hour ago, pasnownut said:

Wierd i know, but I'm fine w/ sleet-anything frozen as long as we can avoid plain rain.  

It's funny because I agree with this, then if we get 1/4-1/2 of freezing rain I will regret it on Wed when I still don't have power. Using a Mr. Heater Buddy hooked up to 20lb propane tank heating my house and having my wife, little girl, dog, and cats all in the living room with the heater because every other room will be 40 degrees haha. But....it will be one way to start a snowpack if tonight performs and we get an early thump, so......worth it???? haha