clskinsfan

Under. Funny thing about the ignore list is the majority of the people I have ignored havent been on the site in years. Its like they just fade away for some reason.

I will end up breaking the forum record for largest ignore list tonight.

I think it stays just a little north of them Jeb.

I disagree. I think pretty much everyone sees a significant snow before any flip happens. A 3-6 inch thump is significant.

Whoa. Thats the coldest run of any model yet.

GEFS supports that in all honesty. I cant ever remember a track like the GFS is spitting out. The GEFS would be a classic bomb for just about everyone in here. Except the Eastern Shore folks.

That week still doesnt break 2016 for me. Of course we got kind of screwed with the second noreaster out here (Only 4-6). I know a lot of you like multiple events. And I do as well. But I dont think I will ever see 40 inches from a single storm again in my lifetime.

Stuck at work again today. First chance I have had to look at the 12z runs. I dont want to piss anyone off but:

More like 3-5 cities. 8-12 west. But who's counting? https://weather.us/model-charts/german/2022011212/virginia/snow-depth-in/20220117-1800z.html

No. but Leesburg is.

Even if that happens everyone will see snow from it. Maybe not a huge storm. But it would start as snow for everyone. ICON out on Weather us. It is beautiful. Mouth of the bay pass. We all get smoked. Definitely flips east of the Blur Ridge. But a gorgeous run.

NAM really dumping the cold air in on Saturday before the storm. Teens into DC itself. Surface freezing line down into central NC.

Nah. That is only for Ellicott City.

Yeah. I am not really locking this one up. But I do think a slider is off the table. I am definitely worried about mixing with a track up the coastal plain though. Either way I think everyone on this board is going to see snow from this one. I am also leaning toward everyone seeing mixing with it as well.

We care. And we don't really care if you don't.

Way too early for absolutes obviously. But for those of us west of the Blue Ridge we should be pretty confident at this point that we are gonna get hammered. A track west of the mouth of the Bay will mix even out here. But regardless of the model we get wrecked. Make up storm for us after the first storm debacle.

Its out on pivotal. Here is 84. 500 and 850 winds. Look at that cold dump straight out of the north.

It is going to be a huge storm man. And the precip shield will be large as well. Even if it ends up sliding south I think we still see snow from it.

The only thing I am taking away from the 0Z NAM is the amount of cold air getting dumped over us before this storm arrives. Temps are not going to be problem when the precip does eventually get here.

It might have the low in Maine after last nights debacle.

Big old banana high. That run was a beatdown waiting to happen.

One thing in everyones favor is that strong storms running up the coastal plain are pretty rare. I would think it is either going to run the coast or be west. If it's going to be west it is much more likely to end up a cutter. But that isnt necessarily a complete fail either. We can get a decent front end thump then dryslot with those as well. I just want to give the GFS some kudo's. It has been sniffing around with a MLK storm for over a week now. It hasnt verified yet. But if it does that model has really been improved.

Love the cold after the storm on the Euro as well. Whatever falls is going to become concrete and be here for quite some time.

Sleet is in play for all of us. It is so rare for a Coastal to stay all snow in the Mid Atlantic.

As depicted it is still a hell of a storm for DC itself. The city being the actual dividing line between 6-10inches and a shit ton of ice on top. Icing on the cake is DC would be about the only major city to see actual snow if it verified.