clskinsfan
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Everything posted by clskinsfan
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GFS 992 over CHO. Nice run.
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Look at that beast heading towards Nova Scotia. https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/conus_band.php?sat=G16&band=08&length=24 https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=na&band=09&length=24
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I am hoping everyone that is going to get ice gets a couple of inches of snow first. It would help a ton.
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I'm hard pressed to remember a storm track like the one the models are spitting out. I was convinced 3 days ago this would either cut or ride the coast. Weird times we live in.
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https://www.globalweatherclimatecenter.com/weather-history-topics/reflecting-on-the-historic-ice-storm-of-1994-credit-national-weather-service-jackson-ms-noaa Some maps in that article.
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Then it is a tough call for the mets for my area. The Euro gives me 11 the Nam/GFS/CMC give me 3-5 followed by an ice storm. Bullseyed to get a foot for a week. What a disaster. I picked out a fine bottle of Macallan 12 for this slop fest too. Guess I will have to go with the Johnny Black instead and put that bottle away for the next one.
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Not just the nam man. The gfs and cmc look almost identical to it now as far as boundary temps go. I guess it could be wrong. But not likely with everything else moving towards it.
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Yeah. It is strengthening that backside potential on each run. But the hopes of an all snow bomb to the west is pretty much over. I won't be making fun of the NAM again anytime soon. It was the first to pick out the realistic amount of ice out this way.
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Great map. 4-8 through the Shen Valley is a smart call. We are going to end up getting more ice than some think.
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The RGEM really bumped up the ice totals out this way as well. Lucy has spoken again.
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The Euro and gfs last night had a pretty robust band Monday morning as well. Would be nice to put a fresh inch on top of the frozen slop.
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Gfs has the best surface low pass yet and somehow it dropped western snow totals. Maybe it's starting to get a better idea about upper air temps.
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That is a catastrophic ice storm out here as modeled. .4 qpf and the surface never goes above freezing.
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The surface low actually went SE a good bit at 6Z Monday from the 18Z run. Closer to the Euro and GFS this run in that regard.
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What a beast on the NAM. Yucatan express of moisture.
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I am nowhere near ready to make any kind of call. The models have consistently bullseyed me for 3 days. The Lucy rug pull could be right around the corner.
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RGEM drives into central VA at the end of its run. 2-5 for pretty much everyone before the ice takes over.
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Agree. If its not sleeting during that sounding than it will be shortly. But with a sounding like that the previous half hour was probably an epic snow dump. And I also agree that our elevation helps some.
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All while watching NFL playoffs. Well as long as the power stays on.
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The Euro is actually wetter than the GFS. But they are very similar.
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For NOVA and DC it does. Maybe another inch or 2 on the backside Monday morning.
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We could end up going over to plain old rain as well with a west shift. Nothing is off the table at this point. I am feeling good about the Euro and GFS being almost identical at this point though.
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Pummeled. Gotta ride the edge to get the best goods.
