Hazey

Snowpack wipeout here as well. 60’s will do that. At least it lasted almost a week. That’s light years better than last year. We start again.

6z GFS trying to save Christmas. We pray. Lord how we pray.

The 20-25th period has legs. I think conditions will be favourable with marginal airmass and several s/w’s in the flow. Period to watch. You guys might grab the 17th. To warm here on that one

I argue that the "hostile" period might only be a couple of days AN. Looks like cold building in at the end of the OP GFS around the 21st and maybe a festive miracle. We pray 

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One thing I’ve noticed as we get closer to verification is guidance has been showing more split flow out west once it gets inside of D10-11 which is one of the reasons that mid-Dec period has cooled a bit in recent runs. Guidance initially shows a phased deep trough out west but then it turns into a SW trough but a ridge over top of it as we get closer. The base of the trough breaks off.  We’ll see if it sticks. 
 

If that happens again as we approach that 12/18-12/21 period, then maybe we can stay in the game even if it’s not a very cold pattern or ideal look further upstream in the PAC.  

This is what i meant by encouraging signs. Long range ensembles want to torch but it gets watered down as it moves into the midrange. This is the pattern  persistence we watch for.

Yeah doesn’t look too balmy in the mid long range. Encouraging signs.

Call 8” final. Could have been a bit more if I was a weather board person. Nice out there. We winter…at least for a short while.

Around 8” and still snowing. Going out to snowblow. Great start to December here.

Lots of solutions. Needs another day or two to sort out the key s/w in the grouping. Fun times ahead.

Looks like 2 or 3 cutters, then the table is set for December. We cross fingers.

Yup lets get the cat 2 cane into nova scotia in the 3rd week of November. Totally normal....JFC!

Warmth keeps getting delayed and pinched off in the medium range. Looking for positives.

Seems the mild up is being pushed back on the latest runs. That's a different flavor then having the cold pushed back like we are used to. Hmm..

Finished with 3.7" (9cms). Not bad for the first shot of winter. Cold this morning with w/c and snow otg. Felt like legit January morning. Warm up this weekend.

Congrats to those getting their first snow. We are getting our first taste of winter here. Steady snow. 3/4 to a mile stuff. This would be amongst the earliest accumulations that I can remember.

Social media........The downfall of humanity. Turned most in to unsympathetic selfish opinionated arseholes. Causes folks to be edgy and abrasive. That ain't going away. Snif'

Wow hearing 20+ killed. Very sorry to hear this. Went through this a few years ago. No where safe.

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We often joke in here that rainy cutters followed by a frigid blast is a "1980s pattern"....those of us snow lovers who grew up with that remember all too well and not in a good way.

Yeah now it's just rainy cutters followed by mild downs. Fingers crossed this winter bucks the trend.

Still a ways out but Halloween is looking toasty on the long range. Fingers crossed. 

Strong nor’easter at best. Not sweating this one.

24hrs without power. Just got it back. Minimal damage that I can see. Just small branches and leaf particles plastered over everything. Had sold gusts into the 60’s mph. Long duration. 18hrs + of Tropical storm conditions. Fun but pretty meh overall.

72 mph gust at YHZ. Lost power hours ago. Probably many hours before it comes back. Some damage but worst will be later this afternoon/eve.

We are getting PRE effects now. Very hvy rain and T&L. Flooding a concern before Lee even arrives. Good times ahead.

Place to be for this one I think. Whatever fury Lee has to give, good chance this place will experience it.

https://www.brierisland.com

Nice to see the euro throw someone else’s skin in the game. This is going to be a fun week. Nerve wracking but exciting.